2017 Hurricane Season

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:32 pm

THE DEVASTATION CONTINUES

My first post on Hurricane Irma was way back on 27th August as a strong Tropical Wave about to leave the African Coast and I am approaching 2 weeks of posting on this phenomenal Storm.

Finally, credit must now be given to CNN for posting coverage of the Caribbean experiences today, although the US Media seems to be generally using the Caribbean story as an indicator of what could happen to Florida later this weekend which is not a bad thing because, of course, every means available should be used to protect those in Irma's future path.

Irma has been downgraded to a Category 4 Hurricane, partly due to some interaction with Cuba's landmass and partly due to eyewall recycling ... under no circumstances should anyone rule out the possibility that Irma could regain Category 5 status before landfall in southern Florida.

Regardless of Category status, more devastation lies ahead in the Bahamas and Florida until Irma finally expires somewhere north of Florida next week.

Today, the sting in Irma's tail came out as the outflow of the Storm spread out to the south and right across the rest of the Caribbean and over South America, bringing heavy rainfall to all areas (including Tobago).

So ... what's next?

Hurricane Jose, as expected, is now a Category 4 Storm and still strengthening. Jose could also become Category 5 although, if it does, it is unlikely to stay at this level of intensity as long as Hurricane Irma and this is probably academic as far as the Northern Leeward Islands are concerned ... they must be wondering what else Mother Nature has to throw at them.

Again, tracks and timing in the forecasts are crucial and it is clear that the NHC are taking considerable care not to rule out another hit on these already stricken Islands that are now under a Hurricane Warning for this weekend.

It is sincerely hoped that Jose takes a skip to the east, minimising any further damage to these Islands but it is a very close call ... perhaps not a direct hit but close enough to bring hurricane conditions to the most north easterly Islands before moving in a more northerly direction ... Bermuda will be watching.


A third Hurricane (Katia) is at Category 2 and will make landfall over southern Mexico this weekend. Flooding is the main risk although reporting on Hurricane Katia has taken second place behind the strong earthquake that occurred on the Pacific side of Mexico early this morning.


Updates will follow ...

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:40 pm

IRMA, JOSE AND NEW THREAT

Hurricane Irma is currently weaker than Jose due to more interaction with Cuba than was expected.

The continuing westerly trend of Irma has consistently dogged the Weather Forecasters and, right now, the next 'turn' is overdue to the extent that Irma could track up the western side of Florida rather than make landfall ... this is a possibility that is not being contemplated by the Forecasters.

Another problem is that, despite the weakening of Irma over Cuba, Irma's Core is very compact and is likely to re-strengthen as Irma moves away from Cuba and over cooking sea. The re-strengthening would be limited if Irma went straight into the south of Florida, probably as a Category 4, but if the 'turn' is delayed anymore and Irma goes up the western side of Florida then this could allow further re-strengthening and a new range of potentially ghastly consequences.

I hope they have got it right this time because they cocked up on their previous 'turn' as Irma instead waded through the Northern Leewards.


What is not in the news today is Hurricane Jose which is a strong Category 4 Hurricane and it seems, thankfully, to have just brushed the Northern Leewards islands and is now moving away.

But Jose is going to hang around for probably a week well off the US east coast and could end up just sitting there as there would appear to be little in the way of steering for Jose within the general Weather systems. So it is becoming understandably difficult to predict the outcome for Jose in the longer term (+5 days).


Attention should also be focused on another strong Tropical Wave that has left the African Coast and is showing signs of spinning.

Updates to follow ...

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Andy D » Sun Sep 10, 2017 1:40 am

Hi Paul,

Great updates as usual. I'm just back from St Kitts and Nevis and was on Nevis when Irma struck last Tuesday night into Weds. Very scarey indeed but got away lightly compared to other islands. My first encounter of any category of Hurricane and one I'll never forget.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 10, 2017 9:21 pm

Hello Andy

Maybe one day I will experience a real Hurricane ... the closest I got was the October Storm in the UK of 1987 !

Perhaps I should make more effort ... good to hear that you were safe.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 10, 2017 10:14 pm

IRMA IN DECLINE
JOSE STAYING FOR A WHILE
NO OTHER THREATS THIS WEEK


It was a close call. Irma was not making the 'turn', rather a very belated and acute 'about right' that will seal Irma's demise rapidly as the Hurricane moves up the west coast of Florida and mostly over land.

This will have come as some relief to the Forecasters because Irma was re-strengthening and had already recovered from a low-end Category 3 to a Category 4. It could have got much worse had Irma stayed over the cooking sea for much longer.

Some of the raw footage being posted on the Internet is quite stunning, particularly those showing the storm surge.

Of considerable interest were the footage of the 'anti-storm surge' which happened in several areas where the sea disappeared having been blown away from western coasts by strong easterly winds and then being rammed back onto the coast by westerly winds as the eye of Irma passed these areas.

Another interesting topic which demonstrates the power of Irma was that the Storm was picked up by seismographs when at it's peak Category 5 intensity ... Imagine that !

On a lighter note was the usual footage of the nut-job Media reporters standing in very dangerous Hurricane conditions but, this time, they have become more sophisticated with the ability to compare notes by linking up with other nut-jobs in various degrees of discomfort, wetness and excitement ... I wonder what the Health & Safety position is for injury or death at Work in these situations which seemed more dangerous than entering a War Zone ... I was watching a nut-job in Miami comparing his experiences with another nut-job on the Florida Keys 'Hey Bud, hows it going down there?' ... it was quite amusing for a while but you soon get a bit bored of it and, when the adverts came on, I wondered if any of that advertising revenue would be going to those affected ... or perhaps the funeral expenses of the nut-job journalist !?!

Sadly, for normal people, there are bound to be some fatalities though this will probably not be known for another 48 hours or so.


JOSE

A remarkably resilient Hurricane still at Category 4. Jose could still be with us next weekend with very little in the way of steering currents.

There could be some risk to the Bahamas as many of the Weather Models are indicating that Jose will just sit around south of Bermuda and east of the US Coast and then start moving south west. This is a big problem for the forecasters because Jose could actually go anywhere ... so Jose and it's surrounding weather influences need watching carefully to be able to anticipate the Hurricane's move.

Some say Jose will weaken but without any steering currents only a cooling sea temperature can weaken Jose ... I am sure I will be updating on Jose this week.


OTHER THREATS

Right now there are no other threats.

The strong Tropical Wave I mentioned yesterday could still develop but it has played it's first card and looks like going north west ... it could change but, for now, no threat.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:33 pm

JOSE, LEE & MARIA

Hurricane Jose is still hanging around off the eastern coast of the US and south west of Bermuda.

Jose lost Hurricane status last week, weakening to a Tropical Storm, but has since re-strengthened and could strengthen some more as the Storm becomes more mobile and potentially brushing some eastern US States on it's journey north.


LEE?

Currently designated Tropical Depression 14 by the NHC, this disturbance initially showed the most potential of 2 strong Tropical Waves that left Africa earlier this week, but although it is expected to strengthen to a Tropical Storm (Lee is the next name), it's days look numbered if it takes the expected north west track into heavy shear and dry air.


MARIA?

This is the one to watch. Initially the weaker of the 2 disturbances, it has followed a more favourable track in terms of the right conditions for Storm development and is currently heading towards the Caribbean.

Right now I am having difficulty in seeing where the potential centre is as it starts to spin so it is difficult to see where in the Caribbean it is likely to hit until this disturbance really gets going.

All interests in the Caribbean should be watching this disturbance which could arrive somewhere in the eastern Caribbean by Monday, but I would expect it to be either a high end Tropical Storm or low end Hurricane ... not another Irma! ... I will post updates.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:39 am

LEE or MARIA

The NHC are dithering over the classification of the Tropical Wave that has yet to become a Storm although they do give the chances of this as 90% within the next 48 hours.

So I am not sure if this disturbance will be named Lee or Maria because the Tropical Depression (14) behind to the east is also on the verge of being named. I can't name them.

Due to this disturbance's proximity to Tobago (about 650 miles) and the fact that it is moving westerly at the rate of 20 mph I think that all interests in the Caribbean should be in a state of readiness because wherever this disturbance goes, it's worst impacts will be felt by Monday.

The NHC are being very vague as usual and I am wondering what happened to their new service of reporting on 'Potential Tropical Cyclones' (PTC's) ... therefore, if this carries on much longer there could be very short notice to those affected.

So ... here is my best effort at prediction.

Tobago looks safe with a low risk of impact but a moderate risk of low impacts such as rain and heavy surf. In fact, the rainfall associated with the disturbance is well west of the centre and this could start falling over Tobago by tomorrow.

The Weather Models have a spread of direct impacts between Barbados and the far north east of the Northern Leewards that took the brunt of Hurricane Irma nearly 2 weeks ago. The general consensus (aligning the spread of the Models together) takes this disturbance south of Antigua.

As I said yesterday, the strength of this disturbance is likely to be a high end Tropical Storm or Category 1 (maybe 2) Hurricane ... so nowhere near as bad as Irma but it could be very damaging should it affect the areas impacted by Hurricane Irma.

However, Hurricanes Irma and Jose will have cooled the seas in their wake so there would be less energy for this Storm to feed on if it takes that direction. If it takes a more southerly direction then the seas are cooking and development could be stronger.

I will post updates, but Tobago should be prepared because I believe that there is a good chance of rain and heavy seas from this disturbance even though it's centre looks like impacting Islands well to the north.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:41 pm

MARIA

The name of Lee was designated to the Storm behind Maria, but Maria is not Maria yet ... not officially.

So when the 90% risk could only go to 100%, the NHC have designated the 'to be or not to be' Maria 'PTC' status.

And I was not going mad ... the NHC can't locate the centre either and, therefore, predicting the track of this development is still very speculative.

As soon as PTC status was known, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued as far south as St Vincent and the Grenadines and Barbados.

My prediction is slightly adjusted to the south, putting these Islands at risk. The Weather Models are going for north with direct impacts on the Islands that were pounded by Irma.

The biggest change is the speed. Potential Maria is slowing down although I expect conditions to deteriorate in some areas tonight whereas the centre is unlikely to pass over any Islands before Early Tuesday.

Another change is the strength because if this system nudges to the south then rapid strengthening could occur and we cannot rule out a major Hurricane moving through the Windwards by Tuesday. The argument against this is the size of the circulation ... it is quite big and large developments can struggle to spin.

Outer rain-bands are about 100 miles off eastern Tobago and some rain is already over Barbados. As I have said, this is quite a large circulation and the rain will be widespread and the deterioration in the Weather will be gradual before the action really starts by Tuesday.

Nobody is out of the woods yet ...

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:52 pm

MARIA STRENGTHENING

Tropical Storm Maria is on the verge of becoming a Hurricane and could be a major (Cat 3) Hurricane by the time it impacts the Windward Islands.

Maria has become more compact, effectively shrinking and wrapping the outer rain-bands more tightly around it's centre. This is a worrying indicator of rapid strengthening.

The forward track has changed very little and it seems likely that the centre of Maria will reach Antigua (or just south of Antigua) overnight from Monday to Tuesday. The Model consensus that I reported on Saturday, so far, seems about right.

Wider impacts will be felt as far south as Barbados but there is strong outflow developing on the south side of the Storm that could push rainfall further south over Trinidad & Tobago and Venezuela, but apart from potentially heavy surf and the rain risk, the impacts on Tobago should be minimal.

Hurricane Irma came from a more northerly angle and traveled mostly to the north of Antigua, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba.

Maria, as a hurricane, is coming from a more southerly angle, avoiding the cooler seas churned by Irma, and likely to take a track to the south of these countries, widening the impacts of major hurricane damage, but even with Tropical Storm conditions over the areas already devastated by Hurricane Irma, there are likely to be potentially grave consequences for these areas that have hardly even begun to recover from Irma.

However the most positive aspects are that these areas will be more than ready and Maria is not likely to be as strong as Irma, although Maria will be strong.

As things stand, it is a question of how strong Maria will get and when. There is little doubt that Maria will reach Category 3 status but there is little in the way of atmospheric and general weather patterns to suggest that Maria's strength could be limited.

So this is basically down to how well Maria gets organised and how quickly ... the signs are not looking good.

Conditions north of Barbados will begin to deteriorate from Monday and should reach their worst for the northern Windward Islands overnight Monday into Tuesday.

Updates will follow ...

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:30 pm

HURRICANE MARIA ... A GAME-CHANGER

I was expecting to do a leisurely Liquid Sunshine Weekly Update but that will have to wait.

The NHC didn't need to wait for a Hurricane Hunter to explore Maria because a rather sudden explosion of Intense thunderstorms has erupted around the centre and an eye has formed.

The track has also shifted slightly south and the big burst of thunderstorm activity has extended over Barbados. Outer rain-bands are now affecting Martinique, St Lucia, St Vincent, The Grenadines and Tobago, with Grenada just on the edge.

The expansion of Hurricane Maria's Core indicates to me that conditions will start to deteriorate now as the Centre (Eye) rolls just north of Barbados (currently under only a Tropical Storm Watch!!) overnight with a direct hit for Dominica or Martinique by late Monday evening.

The areas already devastated by Hurricane Irma may also experience Hurricane Conditions and Puerto Rico looks set to take a direct hit.

This is a very dangerous situation for most of the Windward Islands because young and developing Hurricanes can wobble. A small jog to the north or south can mean the difference between Tropical Storm Strength damage and Major Hurricane damage over short distances ... remember that Antigua had limited damage compared to nearby Barbuda during Hurricane Irma's rampage.

Updates will follow ...

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:03 pm

MAJOR HURRICANE MARIA ... JOSE STILL GOING

Maria continues to strengthen rapidly, rocketing from Tropical Storm status to Category 3 Hurricane status in 24 hours.

Hurricane Maria seems to have locked sight on Dominica and the eye of the Storm will pass over or close to Dominica tonight. During this time, Maria could reach Category 4. Category 5 is now looking like a possibility by the time Maria reaches Puerto Rico later this week.

Up to the point of reaching Puerto Rico, Maria is following a parallel path to Hurricane Irma that tracked a little further to the north.

Of no consolation to Dominica is the Hurricane wind-field being only 30 miles wide and therefore the Hurricane damage will not be as widespread as Irma.

So thoughts should be with Dominica tonight but remember that a slight wobble in Maria's track could present a different picture by the morning.

Hurricane Maria's impacts are widespread with a minimum Tropical Storm Force wind-field about 250 to 300 miles across and the rain-bands extending even further, particularly to the south where 2 spiral bands of rain have crossed over Tobago and with more to come.

So far this season everywhere in the Caribbean, apart from the extreme south west, has been impacted either directly or indirectly by a Hurricane.


JOSE

Jose has been around now for a long time and is now weakening for the last time. However, Jose will bring some lively weather to the north east US and possibly Canada before finally expiring later this week.

Jose' position could influence Maria's path as the US Forecasters latch on to the possibility that Maria may miss the US and be steered out to the northern Atlantic by Jose ... we will see.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:04 pm

CATEGORY 4 MARIA POUNDING DOMINICA / GUADELOUPE

Maria's eye has been wobbling north and south and is about to pass over north east Dominica.

As it has done so, another big whirl of thunderstorms exploded around the centre which is a clear indication of continuing rapid strengthening.

Ahead is Guadeloupe and conditions could be worse for Guadeloupe if the eye passes to the south, bringing the fiercest winds on the north and north east side of Maria to the Island.

The chances of Category 5 strength are increasing by the hour and it's looking grim ... when and where was the last time 2 Cat 5's affected broadly the same areas within a couple of weeks of each other?

Although the Hurricane is still relatively small, the canopy of the Storm is covering the whole of the eastern Caribbean and as far south as (and over) the South American main land.

All Caribbean interests should be prepared because there could be some isolated squalls around the total circulation, well away from the centre.

Above all ... here's hoping that Dominica and Guadeloupe ride out the storm tonight and the people are safe.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:13 pm

CATEGORY 5 MARIA

As I finished typing my post last night, Maria became Category 5 ... this Hurricane was strengthening so rapidly that any news was history within minutes.

I am relieved but also somewhat surprised to hear of few casualties although it may be too early to assess this. Watching Hurricane Maria on the sat loops last night wobbling towards Dominica was a rather distressing sight because you could see how violent Maria's core was as round after round of thunderstorms erupted around the centre of the Storm.

But Maria's eye was so small that the Hurricane choked a little as it passed over Dominica, reducing to Category 4 ... cutting off the food supply even for a short period shows how delicate even the most vicious Hurricanes can be.

Anyway, it didn't last long, as soon as Maria moved into the Caribbean Sea Category 5 status was regained very quickly and now Puerto Rico and most of the Virgin Islands are seeing their respective weather conditions deteriorate as Maria closes in.

Astonishing and horrifying.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:14 am

CATEGORY 2 MARIA

It is rather academic, but Maria weakened to a Category 4 Hurricane at landfall on Puerto Rica. This was largely due to the fact that Maria's eyewall was undergoing a recycle.

Although Puerto Rica has clearly taken a real spanking from Maria, it's landmass has delivered a significant blow to Maria and the Storm has been downgraded to Category 2.

But now Maria has re-entered the cooking Seas north of Puerto Rico and is starting to strengthen again as the eye has now become visible again and a new outbreak of heavy thunderstorms have erupted around the Storm's core.

Could Maria reach Category 5 again? Well based on Maria's historical behaviour, I would not rule this possibility out.

The Bahamas are next ...

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:09 pm

THE 5 MAJORS
LEE AND MARIA TO MARRY IN EUROPE THIS WEEKEND?
MORE TROUBLE IN NORTHERN CARIBBEAN


Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose, Lee and Maria are 5 Hurricanes that have reached 'major' Hurricane Status (Category 3 or above) in the 2017 Hurricane Season and all in the space of 1 month ... this milestone (or record) was reached when Lee reached major Hurricane Status earlier today in the mid-Atlantic as a Category 3.

Also, these 5 Majors achieved this consecutively, one after the other and I am wondering if this has happened before. No doubt someone of greater wisdom and nerdiness than me will search the archives to verify my wonderings.



Hurricanes Maria and Lee are about to get hooked up in a strong Jet Stream which will carry them both towards the UK and Northern Europe this weekend. In fact, they look to be on a collision course and I am not sure of they will merge or form a series of 'wind storms' that I expect will attack the UK from this coming weekend.

I have had a look at the UK Met Website and, although I am sure they are aware of the threat, they have not posted anything yet.

It is autumn and it is not uncommon for the remnants of Hurricanes to pass over the UK at this time of year, but 2 ?!? ... we shall see.



The southerly outflow from Hurricane Maria continues to reach the southern extremes of the Caribbean and this, coupled with a Tropical Wave has brought yet more rain to these areas, including Tobago. More settled weather is on the way for Tobago for the end of this week.

A new disturbance is also forming just south of Cuba and this could bring heavy rains to many of the areas recently affected by the Hurricanes. NHC have picked this disturbance up and are issuing advisories, however they are giving this a low risk of developing into a Storm or Hurricane ... regardless of this, the disturbance could bring trouble if it rains heavily over previously saturated Islands.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:26 pm

TROUBLE BREWING IN SOUTH WEST CARIBBEAN

The whole of the Caribbean is experiencing periodic rainfall as the moisture levels remain high.

This is a proper wet season.

The pressure is also quite low, particularly to the western Caribbean and it is in the South West north of Columbia and east of Costa Rica where a Tropical Depression appears to be forming.

Conditions in this area are perfect for Storm Development and, if everything falls into place, a major Hurricane can develop over an area with cooking Seas and no cold patches churned up by the previous Hurricanes.

This one, if it develops, reminds me of the explosive Hurricane Wilma back in 2005 and could threaten Jamaica, the Caymans, Cuba and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

I will post updates if there are any developments.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:46 pm

HURRICANE NATE?

As indicated in yesterday's post, the disturbance in the south west of the Caribbean has indeed become a Tropical Depression and is very likely to become a Hurricane very soon.

Interaction with land over Nicaragua and Honduras is likely to prevent intensification to a Major Hurricane but ... that depends on the track.

If Nate is to avoid land, which is possible, then explosive development is very likely due to the cooking Seas that provide the energy for Nate to develop.

As I have mentioned in previous posts, the Caribbean Sea (particularly in the south west) is way above average in terms of the sea temperature and the wind shear is low ... all the ingredients required for strengthening.

The future of this Storm is very reliant on land interaction or no land interaction.

So if the track keeps the Storm over the Sea there is big trouble ahead.

I will post updates should anything change.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:33 pm

NATE A HURRICANE? ... NATE YET !!
2 TROPICAL WAVES IN ATLANTIC


The greatest threat from Nate is the rain over Honduras, Costa Rica, Belize and Nicaragua. The rainfall is widespread and reaches way past the Pacific Coast.

But it looks very disorganised and landfall over Honduras has not helped Tropical Storm Nate's cause.

It gets interesting when Nate moves back over a cooking sea and tracks towards the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. There is enough energy here to make explosive strengthening possible but this also depends on Nate's speed ... Nate is going like the clappers and is expected to reach the US Gulf Coast by Sunday latest.

It also depends if Nate passes over the Yucatan Peninsula ... if Nate stays out to Sea then there will be no interruption to strengthening.

So it's all up in the air (pardon the pun) ... if Nate goes more westerly then a weak Hurricane or Tropical Storm will reach the US.

If Nate tracks just a little to the east and misses the Yucatan Peninsula then we could have the 6th consecutive Major Hurricane of the Season ... but Nate needs to slow down to achieve this.


2 Tropical Waves

These Waves are carrying quite alot of moisture and this means more heavy rain for the Caribbean later this weekend and next week.

The second Wave appears to be forming a Depression, has a little outflow and has just set off a big burst of thundery activity. However this Wave is a little too close to the Equator to get going.

No advisories are currently being issued on this Wave so hopefully it will come to nothing more than rain.

Yet another rather wet week ahead for Tobago.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:38 pm

HURRICANE NATE ... FOR SURE

Nate has strengthened to a Category 1 Hurricane and could reach Category 2 before landfall on the US Gulf Coast tonight, impacting Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. Category 3 (Major Hurricane) is possible but the chances of this are decreasing because Nate is going too fast to draw on the energy of the cooking sea.

As I guessed, Nate avoided interaction with the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Had interaction occurred then Nate would be a much weaker Storm.

Nate demonstrates that it does not necessarily take a Major Category 4 or 5 Storm to cause fatalities ... numerous fatalities have been reported in Costs Rica and Nicaragua mainly due to the rains while Nate was just a Tropical Storm.

As Nate is now moving quickly towards the US Gulf Coast, the speed of the Storm will help reduce the rainfall totals in affected areas and the strength of the Storm will decline rapidly after landfall.


Update on Tropical Waves

The second of 2 Tropical Waves that I covered in my last post is now a Depression but at such a low latitude that development is unlikely to occur, but it could bring some heavy rain to Tobago and the southern half of the Windwards by late Sunday.

Ahead of this, another Tropical Wave is already impacting Tobago with heavy and possibly thundery rainfall which looks like setting in for the rest of today.

Another large Depression has just moved off the African Coast which will have my attention over the coming week.

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Re: 2017 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:17 pm

TROPICAL STORM ORPHELIA

Yet another named Storm in this busy season.

This one does not look as if it will cause trouble for anyone other than a Sailor with no direction ... Orphelia is right in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, south west of the Azores.

Nothing much is expected to happen as the Storm has no steering currents but there is a chance that Orphelia will reach Hurricane status later this week and start moving, possibly in an eastern direction.

The Depression that I was expecting to reach Tobago by tomorrow has been obliterated by wind shear but the associated Tropical Wave is still there and could set off a few showers.

A new disturbance is manifesting itself just north of the northern Leeward Islands and this may pose a few problems in that area late this week.

Elsewhere, a large mass of rainfall is moving across the Tropical Atlantic close to the Equator and this may bring rainfall to the Caribbean by Thursday.

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