2019 Hurricane Season

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Paul Tallet
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2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue May 21, 2019 10:13 pm

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA

With regret, I am opening up the 2019 Hurricane Season 10 days earlier than intended.

Not that anything bad has happened … it's the NHC's fault, designating a Tropical Storm (Andrea) off the east coast of Florida, now the ex-Tropical Storm, way out to sea and unlikely to cause any problems apart from maybe some rain and winds in Bermuda.

So as soon as the NHC start naming Storms I have no option other than to start the 2019 Hurricane Season Forum off just to be sure that the first named storm of this season gets a mention. A to Z with no gaps.

As I have indicated in the Liquid Sunshine forum over the last 2 weeks, changes are becoming very clear in the weather patterns with an early start for Tropical Waves but, most of all, is the high sea temperature. This does not mean that there will be more Storms and Hurricanes … it means that what Hurricane and Storms that find the right dessert menu could become stronger or more extreme.

The dessert menu needs more than high sea temperatures, it needs a number of other factors such as upper atmospheric winds (going in the right direction) and instability, all of these factors need to be in place and a combination will set off big storms. A risk is a drought

Is this because of human contributions to global warming? … No, we are just polluting and, although this is a contributing factor, it can only boost natural warming to a minor extent … the earth has been hot and cold for thousands of years and has it's own process of handling it's temperature.

I must emphasise that Tobago rarely gets a direct hit from a major hurricane … Tobago's experiences are often associated with Tropical Waves and the occasional developing Storm that passes or reaches Storm or Hurricane status after it has passed over Tobago.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

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Paul Tallet
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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jun 02, 2019 7:31 am

TROUBLE BREWING IN THE GULF

The NHC are issuing advisories on a disturbance in the south of the Gulf of Mexico and currently give this system a 60% chance of development.

If the system develops then it will be called 'Barry'.

Whatever happens, Tropical Storm or Hurricane status is likely to be short-lived although this brings a substantial rain threat to south east Mexico.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

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Paul Tallet
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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:28 pm

BARRY NOT YET
SIGNIFICANT RAINS FOR EAST MEXICO, TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA


As I have said in previous years, it does not take development into a Tropical Storm or Hurricane to deliver extreme weather.

The NHC has downgraded the status of this disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and, although Tropical Storm conditions are now less likely, those in east Mexico, Texas and west Louisiana should take note of this system that will bring heavy rains to these areas that are (locally) already saturated with rain from the tropical surges that have already brought the extreme conditions from the south to the central US in recent weeks.

This weather event is likely to take place over the next several days so not a good time for the north west Caribbean.

In the south east of the Caribbean it is a little unpredictable with more rain streamers shooting up from the South American rain forests, bringing very heavy and sporadic rainfall and, Tobago, you are included in this.

An unsettled week ahead.

Regards
Paul Tallet
Public Relations Consultant for Mother Nature

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