2019 Hurricane Season

Weather reports, questions and comment.
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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:21 pm

HUMBERTO (?) IN BAHAMAS
AND 2 OTHER DISTURBANCES OF CONCERN TO THE CARIBBEAN


This is unusual with the NHC issuing tropical discussions on a system that is 'expected' to become a tropical depression or storm.

The official chances are 90% and yes it does look like this will develop but I have not before seen a situation where formal tropical discussions (at least 4) have been issued on a development before it has officially developed … this means that the system has not yet formed a closed circulation.

So … yes, I think we have a Humberto and there is some diverse modelling going on with the storm tracking over the (already flattened) north west Bahamas, that is for certain, but a ridge of High Pressure is building from the north and could cut off Humberto's expected track towards Florida and then north east out to the Atlantic.

If the ridge of high pressure moves out from the US and over the Atlantic, Humberto could meander around a little and then possibly move back west towards the US again.

This is early days and the NHC and the Models have difficulty in predicting where storms go until they become storms so I am hoping that the Models align themselves within the next 24 hours. Humberto could become a hurricane too so we will see.


There are now 2 disturbances in the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean needs to watch these … both have an NHC rating of 40% and 50% of development within 5 days … I will send more updates when there are further developments.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:40 pm

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO CONFIRMED
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ACTIVITY INCREASING


Well, how unlucky can the north west Bahamas be? But the good news is that the centre of Humberto is expected to graze the Islands and with it's worst weather on it's north east side. The winds are not really an issue here but the rainfall potential could be a problem if the rain bands around the north east side wrap around the west / south west side of the storm.

Like Dorian, Humberto will be close to the Florida coast so there is some speculation about the amount of rain that will fall there.

The future for Humberto poses a problem for Bermuda because the weather models are predicting a hurricane if Humberto gets that far. There is currently a decreasing risk that Humberto could slow down and loop around and make a track back to the US as I mentioned in last night's post but the high pressure ridges to the north west and east of Humberto are being slow to cut off the route out towards the open Atlantic which is now more likely … maybe this uncertainty will be clarified within 24 hours.


The Tropical Atlantic is fizzing with energy and there are 3 disturbances. I expect something will come out of these with the 2 currently closest to Africa very close together and mostly likely to merge and develop. These are at a low latitude and will need to gain several degrees northwards so that a threat to Tobago can be ruled out. This wants watching.


There is another disturbance in the northern Gulf which poses a mostly rain threat to Texas during the coming week.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:06 am

HUMBERTO GOING FOR BERMUDA
2 OTHER DISTURBANCES


Most weather models are in agreement that Humberto will stay away from the Florida coast and will turn sharply to the east / northeast, gain hurricane strength and pass close to or over Bermuda late Wednesday and into Thursday. The only potential doubt is the timing because Humberto is moving very slowly.

I see that the UK Met and GFS models are interested in the longer term track of Humberto, potentially arriving near the UK as a powerful extra-tropical storm next weekend.

The tropical Atlantic Disturbances have reduced from 3 down to 1, however there are no less than 4 tropical waves between west Africa and the Caribbean so I would expect to see a number of rain events in the Caribbean this week, although the Saharan dust layer has expanded in recent days. I am not sure that the dry air will be enough to significantly limit any rainfall.

The disturbance is midway between Africa and the Caribbean but most models agree that it will begin to take a more northerly track, probably missing the Caribbean altogether. Chances of development are low in the short term but, by 5 days, there are good conditions for development.

There is consistent high pressure ridging over the US and Atlantic at the moment which is why the northern Bahamas seem to have attracted storms such as Dorian and Humberto to their area so I am hoping that the same thing does not happen a 3rd time.

The only other disturbed area of weather is in the Gulf on it's way to bring heavy rains to Texas.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:05 pm

HUMBERTO REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
IMELDA ABOUT TO FORM IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
PLENTY OF TROPICAL WAVES AND MORE COMING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST


I will start with the disturbance in the Gulf … no development expected here but plenty of rain for Texas.


Hurricane Humberto has completed it's turn to the east north east and is gaining strength, likely to peak over Tuesday night after which a weakening trend will start as Humberto encounters increasing wind shear. The likely path is to the north of Bermuda by Thursday morning so hopefully only tropical storm force conditions will affect Bermuda.


Potential Imelda is starting to spin in the deep tropics but is at a low latitude. The models keep predicting a north westerly track but this disturbance is still tracking west and is at a low latitude. A north westerly track would take it into drier air but Dorian showed us how a storm can resist this so this disturbance needs to get going in order to avoid a scrap with the Caribbean.


5 tropical waves span the Atlantic tropics with potential 'Imelda' attached to one of them.

Tobago and most of the eastern Caribbean is getting heavy rains from the 2nd tropical wave I referred to in yesterday's Liquid Sunshine weekly update. The rainfall is between the first and second waves and it looks drier for these areas after the 2nd wave has made it's way through.

I will be surprised if 2 or more disturbances do not materialise over the next 7 days.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:39 pm

IMELDA IN IDENTITY THEFT SCANDAL
HUMBERTO EXPANDS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ATLANTIC TROPICS
AND A NEW THREAT EMERGES FROM AFRICA


Wow … WOW … Imelda … naughty girl. The disturbance in the Gulf that we have been watching, but not really watching, has exploded from a 30% NHC risk to a tropical storm in 24 hours and stolen the identity of the tropical depression (10) in the tropical Atlantic that will now be called Jerry when it finally gets it's act together.

Imelda won't last long though because the storm is about to make landfall in Texas and it will be downhill from there for the storm, although significant rains could cause flooding.

This is quite significant because 'I' named storms are commonly retired as these storms normally occur during the peak hurricane season.

We have had a 'D'. What about 'J'?

Well potential Jerry is struggling to make a spin northwards and, at this stage, the Models are all over the place so a visit to the Caribbean cannot be ruled out yet, however I am worried about the best model consensus which takes the system close to the, yes you guessed it, the northern Bahamas as a Hurricane.

We will see.

Hurricane Humberto has expanded massively since my last post and, although Humberto is expected to pass to the north of Bermuda, the expansion of the storm could bring hurricane conditions to Bermuda. So it's squeaky bum time for the forecasters as they strive to pin down Humberto's size rather then the track.

Finally, we have a new threat expected to move off the African coast ... I have already predicted 2 or more disturbances will occur this week.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:16 pm

IT'S GOING BONKERS AGAIN

From west to east …

Surprising Imelda is deteriorating over Texas and is now a tropical depression. But still bringing heavy rains to Texas.


A new disturbance in the Caribbean Sea is south of Hispaniola. This was part of the tropical wave that brought heavy rains to Trinidad & Tobago and most of the windward islands. The NHC are currently giving this disturbance a 10% chance of development ... ok, it is quite large which is a burden to getting spinning but I think that chances of development are higher. The system is also moving very slowly so rainfall is a problem should the system move over land and, sadly, Haiti is in the sights.


Hurricane Humberto is an increasing problem for Bermuda and hurricane conditions will set in this evening, overnight and into tomorrow morning. Humberto will still track north of Bermuda but will be much closer than expected and with an expanded wind-field of hurricane level winds.


Welcome Tropical Storm Jerry. Or perhaps not so welcome if this storm (that should have been called Imelda) delays it's switch to the north west any longer. I think it will switch north west and this brings the far north east Caribbean under threat and, dare I say, the Bahamas could be in this storm's sights … predictions should become clearer over the next 24 - 48 hours.


A new disturbance is developing in the mid-tropical Atlantic and this is of concern and could bring bad weather to the south east Caribbean by the late weekend or early next week … this includes Trinidad & Tobago. I have doubts that this system will develop much but Imelda and Dorian have taught us this year not to take longer term predictions seriously … this is one to watch (well at least I will be watching it).

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:57 pm

TROPICAL STORM IMELDA
HURRICANE HUMBERTO
HURRICANE JERRY
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN MID-CARIBBEAN SEA
A THREAT FOR TOBAGO FOR THE WEEKEND
AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE YET TO LEAVE THE AFRICAN COAST


So where do I start? 8-[

Ok … I guess it's west to east again.


Imelda is now just a depression and a rainmaker over Texas.


Central Caribbean Sea just south of Hispaniola is the disturbance I mentioned in yesterday's post which brought heavy rains to Tobago and the eastern Caribbean earlier this week. The NHC is giving this a 10% chance of development but it is producing flooding rains over the Dominican and these are likely to transfer to Haiti over the next 48 hours.


Hurricane Humberto has passed Bermuda and is moving more slowly than expected so it's arrival in the UK is likely to be Monday rather than Sunday. Humberto is expected to weaken from now and will eventually become extra tropical before it reaches the UK, possibly energizing an Atlantic depression along the way.


Hurricane Jerry presents a minor threat to the north eastern Windward Islands but the longer term looks uncertain. But the consensus of the widely varying Models takes Jerry towards Bermuda (again!) by next Tuesday ... I think there will be a few surprises ahead so don't take this too seriously regarding Bermuda ... everywhere should taking Jerry seriously and the next 24 - 48 hours will hopefully provide some answers.


Mid-Tropical Atlantic threat to Tobago. This is one to watch. Initially it looks like it could be a developing disturbance as it passes close to or over Tobago late this weekend. Whatever happens, Tobago can expect plenty of rain but my main concern is how much it will develop before it arrives. Tobago is used to rain but not so much sustained high winds which can blow many of the lightly constructed dwellings off a hillside.

This threat is due to arrive within 48 - 72 hours and yet it is still too early to be sure how this disturbance will develop as it approaches the south east Caribbean … NHC give this a 30% chance now but this chance could increase or decrease ... it's enough for my advice to be prepared, get the boats in, get the shelters ready and hope it comes to nothing.


New Disturbance coming off African Coast. Well it's not yet plunged into the warm tropical Atlantic Sea but the NHC are giving this a 40% chance of development.

What did I say last weekend? I expected 2 or more potential development within 2 weeks ... we have had 3 already.

Updates will, no doubt, follow ...

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:57 pm

DELUGE IN TEXAS
DELUGE FOR SOUTH HISPANIOLA, CUBA AND JAMAICA
HURRICANE JERRY
THREAT INCREASES FOR TOBAGO AND S.E. CARIBBEAN
NEW THREAT IN ATLANTIC TROPICS BEFORE IT HAS ARRIVED



I am trying to think of where I would go in the Caribbean this weekend for good weather.

Belize perhaps? Some of the Mexican Gulf coast looks ok. Costa Rica and Nicaragua look best.

Otherwise most of the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic is exploding with energy and I reckon that by the end of this 2019 season at least 70% of the Caribbean will have been affected directly by a tropical storm or hurricane.

The more storm activity and the spread of the activity then the cooler the seas will become. Yes, major hurricanes like Dorian can be destructive but they churn the seas, allowing cool seawater to rise up to the surface, they are the ocean air conditioning units and contribute towards stemming this so-called Global warming.

Hurricanes Dorian, Humberto and next, Jerry, are interfering with the Gulf stream that carries warm currents towards the north Atlantic and up to the Arctic … could this lead to a cooler / colder winter up north and a recovery in the receding ice layer over Greenland?

Anyway, what's happening … from west to east …


Short-lived Tropical Storm Imelda has dumped catastrophic rains over Texas and the rain is moving slowly north through the state and into neighbouring states.


The disturbance south of Hispaniola is producing similarly vast quantities of rain over the Dominican Republic, Haiti and this rainfall is expected to affect Cuba and Jamaica over the weekend before the system moves into the Gulf. There seems little chance (10%) of development but we already know that even tropical waves can create extreme weather conditions, it does not have to be a hurricane … one day I hope that the NHC come up with a new method of classifying weather events based on their rainfall potential and not just on the strength of the wind.


Hurricane Jerry is bringing rain and heavy seas to the north eastern Caribbean but not making landfall in any of these areas. Problems are expected to arise as Jerry curves round towards the north east and Bermuda could be in for it's second hurricane experience in one week.


The disturbance to the south east of Tobago and the rest of the south eastern Caribbean is now benefitting from my undivided attention and this needs watching.

I am still unsure how much this will develop but the NHC has raised the stakes from 30% to 40% in the last 12 hours. Some models favour development and some don't and therefore the forecast is inconclusive. BUT ... there is little doubt that this system will bring heavy rains and locally extreme conditions throughout the south eastern Caribbean this weekend and into early next week. The whole system is much larger than Hurricane Jerry and this large size could be a big factor in preventing the system from spinning or being classified as a tropical storm / hurricane. As is often the case, it could be a dangerous system that starts to develop as it passes through the Islands although the conditions in the Caribbean Sea are not currently that hospitable and the system's life could be short-lived.

I really hope I can see some clarity within 24 hours as I sense that this could go either way with a potential storm knocking on Tobago's door. So I repeat yesterday's warning … be prepared, get the boats in and ready the shelters … take this seriously and hope it is a false alarm.


Over on the other side of the tropical Atlantic, a strong tropical wave that is still over Africa is getting the weather models excited and the NHC is predicting a 70% chance of development when it leaves the African coast this weekend.

I will be posting updates and I will also post on the Liquid Sunshine Feedback forum to hopefully generate more attention to the Tobago concerns for this weekend.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Hugh S » Sat Sep 21, 2019 12:24 am

Paul, your observations are priceless.

Thank you once again. =D>

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:57 pm

TROPICAL STORM JERRY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTH EAST CARIBBEAN


Thank you Hugh … are you in Tobago in December / January?

Jerry has weakened a little but it is expected to remain a strong tropical storm at least and provide Bermuda with more potential hurricane conditions for Tuesday this week.


I am going to focus more on the disturbance that is threatening to bring severe weather to Tobago and the south east Caribbean initially over the next 48 - 72 hours and then switching to the north and possibly back out into the Atlantic, affecting the whole windward Island chain along the way.

At any point along this system's path it could develop into a tropical storm or hurricane but I think it needs more latitude before it develops and, as I mentioned yesterday, it is quite large and the bigger they are the more trouble they have of spinning.

The system is currently an open tropical wave and it is clear from the sat loops that it is trying to develop with huge bursts of convection and thunderstorms over a large area. As a result there is no centre, it will try to form but it will struggle to close and form a more compact circulation … only then would we be talking potential hurricanes.

But as I have said repeatedly over the years and as evidenced by the vast quantities of rain that fell over Texas last week, this system does not have to be a tropical storm or hurricane to create extreme weather.

Heavy rain has affected Trinidad & Tobago already today (especially Trinidad) and I see that a severe weather warning has already been issued about heavy rain, flooding and potentially strong winds with gusts in excess of 65 mph. The main part of the system will arrive tomorrow (Sunday) and I can already see a very large burst of thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles south east of Tobago.

I don't believe that anywhere will escape the rain but some localised and extreme downpours could cause some problems. Likewise, the wind speeds could vary with some areas getting near hurricane strength gusts and squalls while it is calmer in other areas.

So my advice is … don't take any chances, secure boats and anything that can move and check where your nearest shelter is.

Updates will follow ...

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Hugh S » Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:07 pm

No reservations yet but anything is possible. Easter for sure. Will keep you posted.

8)

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 22, 2019 10:21 am

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORMS JUST EAST OF TOBAGO
TOBAGO WILL GET A DIRECT HIT


Well well, how things can change and so quickly. This hurricane season is definitely the season of (bad) surprises.

I have been posting on this disturbance for most of last week and my last 3 posts have warned of the potential for severe weather so I hope anyone that reads my posts took action and spread the word.

In my last post about 9 hours ago I mentioned a huge burst of thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles south east of Tobago … this is now the centre of TS Karen and from the sat loops I suggest it is very close to the east of Tobago and it is moving slowly, at about 8 - 9 mph.

Based on the track forecast I would also suggest that the centre of Karen will pass directly over Tobago today or early Monday and there is a lot of rain to come before and after that happens.

Karen's status as a tropical storm is fairly academic as far as the rainfall is concerned but the status does ratchet up the dangers with sustained winds of 40 mph and higher gusts reaching +60 mph.


The Situation
  • A tropical storm warning has been (probably belatedly) issued for Trinidad and Tobago, replacing a severe weather warning
  • Tobago looks like getting the worst of Karen and will likely suffer the worst impacts from the storm
  • Karen is moving slowly and dumping huge amounts of rain ... this could be the biggest rain event for Tobago since the tropical depression of 2004 which dumped over 16 inches of rain in 16 hours … Karen is pumping out rain at the rate of more than 1 inch per hour, 2 inches or more in some areas, this could last until late Monday (24 to 36 hours) … you do the maths
  • There will be wider impacts in Trinidad, north west Guyana, Venezuela, Grenada, the Grenadines and Barbados. From St Lucia northwards to Puerto Rico, these Islands are likely to be affected from late Monday onwards as Karen is expected to make a significant turn to the north
  • Trinidad is prone to widespread flooding ... Tobago is more prone to landslides. In both cases there is a threat to life
  • Sustained wind speeds of 40 mph are expected at sea level but there could be gusts well in excess of this and the higher the land then the higher the wind speed and therefore higher level areas of the rainforest should be avoided
  • Damage and coastal erosion may occur with buildings adjacent at high risk

Above all, I hope everyone is safe.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 22, 2019 8:21 pm

TOBAGO AND TROPICAL STORM KAREN

The centre of Karen is shifting away from Tobago towards the north west. Karen may avoid the other windwards but, due to the size of this system, rainfall will be widespread and is likely to affect all the islands to various degrees.

The problems are not over for Trinidad and Tobago. The rain is going to continue and it will be heavy. Not as extreme, but heavy and persistent enough to compound damage that is already evident and possibly areas where it is not yet evident.

My suggestion is to leave everything until tomorrow unless there is risk to life and people need urgent attention.

I have seen reports of landslides and seen some rather concerning videos of flooding (in Scarborough?) and a video of an upturned boat in Cable Bay.

Although the rains may be getting lighter there is still a risk that conditions could get worse and further landslides could occur where the sodden ground reaches it's 'tipping point' and I am talking about whole hillsides coming down with trees and everything on that section of land … this is a dangerous situation.

It could be some days before the risk of landslides reduces (seriously) and then there could be further hazards ahead when the next tropical wave arrives mid-week … so I hope, with the greatest of respect, that rescuers and local authorities keep their heads on and weigh up each situation carefully.

I have just done a last minute check and it is still raining in Trinidad and Tobago. It is far from over.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Roger D. » Mon Sep 23, 2019 1:21 am

Hello Sir Paul & Uncle Steve; Thanks as usual for the detailed weather updates. Got some reports from Trinidad and Tobago and from what I've heard, it was not too bad. Some flooding, windy with some gusts, but not too bad as was expected. However the Met office has said that although Karen passed by, there is still significant convection activity in the atmosphere and rain and come gusty winds will continue. Tobago got the "worst" of Karen and as you said some flooding around the Scarborough area. There are reported power outages in Tobago.

PS - Went to Tobago last month after about 10 years, stayed in Black Rock and had a blast! Safe, Serene and Gorgeous. More about that in a subsequent post. Sheppy says hi :D

All for now.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by PaulMakin » Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:29 am

Karen is moving away.

Experienced high winds and episodic downpours of deluge intensity. Don't know about further northwards but in the SW we had localised flooding from overflowing drains and also some coastal surges, power outages and some damage to property. Currently, we have water/power and people are moving about

Red weather warning remains in place until 20.00hrs
CAL suspended all flights (but showing normal schedule today?)
Airport has re-opened to international flights (none due in today, Virgin managed to squeeze in and out yesterday)
Flooding in S'boro. Various premises out of action, including ScotiaBank
Schools will remain closed
All ferry sailings cancelled (nothing new there really)
T&TEC flooded - crews being sent from Trinidad
All emergency shelters remain open
WASA expecting service problems (again, nothing new there)

Some are saying that she may circle back but for now, whilst not calm, it's business (mostly) as usual down this end. met centre forecast for today seems to be suggesting a normal sort of september day weather-wise

more as i hear it

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by PaulMakin » Mon Sep 23, 2019 9:09 am

Reported that Plymouth jetty has gone and seven vessels (pirogues?) sunk. Some craft blown ashore at Mt Irvine.
Riverine flood warning remains
Reports of mudslides and downed poles/trees blocking roads on the windward side

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by PaulMakin » Mon Sep 23, 2019 10:27 am

Clean up is beginning.

S'boro is under silt and debris in several areas
TEMA are out in force
Reports of flooding to residential properties in lambeau and lowlands
Damage to and loss of residential properties in Mason Hall
Beginning to hear of problems in speyside but as yet no detail
CAL are flying
Ferries will sail today

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by PaulMakin » Mon Sep 23, 2019 10:34 pm

OK - here's an interesting side effect. Have had no comms at all since approx 06.00. no cell coverage, no internet, nada. all the usual subjects of our complaints have been absent.

then, TV6 solved it. Somehow, all island coms have been supported by generators. Which shut down. For fuel. Minister said so.

now, i'm no expert when it comes to communication (far from it, i got my first ever smart phone in march of this year) but i did manage to completely fill my truck for diesel at 10.00 today. Could they not have just sent a man with a few cans and got the gennies (and therefore the island) back on line ?.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Ronald » Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:16 am

Of course they could have done that, but maybe it was the old bad thinking "nobody told me to do that"?

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by PaulMakin » Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:13 pm

Clear-up is continuing apace. Comms are back (but you'd know that as i'm able to post!), airport fully open since yesterday afternoon and ferries sailing normally (or as normally as is normal for a public holiday).

Not had any updates from the windward side but given that i didn't have any house guests dropping by last night i'm assuming that lowlands,lambeau etc have had power restored. some perishable food items missing in the stores but we expect deliveries to be back to normal today.

T&TEC very visible during the evening and overnight - some places down this end were on single phase when i went to bed but the fixes are going in.
WASA still reporting some problems with water treatment plants but supply seems mostly maintained.

weather today is delightful - sunny with high cloud and light breezes. seas are higher than usual but relatively calm.

won't be getting further north than the shirvan road today but if i hear anything from further afield i'll update

Flood waters receding in most areas of trinidad but low lying areas (bamboo 2 and 3 particularly) still have some rising levels although riverine flood warnings now downgraded to yellow

paul

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