2019 Hurricane Season

Weather reports, questions and comment.
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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:52 pm

DISTURBANCE IN GULF
JERRY GOING ROUND TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA
KAREN MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO
LORENZO TO BE MAJOR HURRICANE BUT WHERE WILL IT GO?


Thank you Paul for your updates. There is little media on Tobago but the Trinidad floods are well reported.

The weather over Tobago looks perfect but there is a tropical wave about 48 hours away with a few clusters of showers here and there along it's axis, hopefully it won't compound any problems or recovery efforts.

I will go from west to east again …


A disturbance on the tip of the Yucatan peninsula is expected to move westwards in the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC are giving this a 20% chance of development, however I am reading reports that the Gulf is expected to produce the next storm or hurricane towards the north west of the Gulf owing to welcoming environmental conditions. The reports are not clear about whether it involves this disturbance or not so maybe it could be a new one.


Tropical Storm Jerry is close to Bermuda and will get closer as it moves east north east around to the north of Bermuda, almost repeating the exact track of Humberto. After it's passage past Bermuda, Jerry is expected to weaken steadily.


Tropical Storm Karen weakened to a tropical depression after it's exertions over Tobago and the south east Caribbean but has just survived and returned to tropical storm strength just as the storm engulfs Puerto Rico. Whatever happens to this storm it will be a prolific rainmaker so it is fairly straightforward for Puerto Rico to know what to expect.

Karen may weaken a little again due to land interaction with Puerto Rico but the longer term shows steady strengthening, perhaps as much as hurricane status, but the new mystery is where Karen could go with high pressure building to the north and east and potentially bringing Karen to a stand-still south of Bermuda. A radical theory is of Karen turning to the south west and threatening the Bahamas and Florida ... updates to follow.


Finally, Tropical Storm Lorenzo is the one that has been tagged as a potential hurricane days before it left the African coast. Lorenzo is chugging along quite slowly to the south west of the Cabo Verde Islands and is on the verge of reaching hurricane status and eventually Lorenzo is expected to become a major hurricane in the mid Atlantic. It is too early to say if Lorenzo will impact lands areas on the west or east side of the Atlantic but this storm is typically following a track that could take it to Europe as a major autumnal storm ... the UK has had a taste of that already today.


That's all folks for today.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:21 pm

GULF DISTURBANCE WANING
JERRY EXPIRING OVER BERMUDA
KAREN STILL POSES DANGERS
LORENZO TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE


West to East …

The disturbance in the Gulf is expiring but some of it's energy could contribute to a future development that many Models are predicting for the north west Gulf later this week.


Jerry is now an ex-tropical storm and should pose little more than a rain event for Bermuda.


Tropical Storm Karen remains a problem. It looks like the storm is breaking up but it should gather itself together again in a (current) hospitable environment. The storm is going north but it's path is expected to be cut off by building high pressure. The radical suggestion I mentioned last night, such as threatening the Bahamas, is starting to look more realistic as the storm could track west to south west … this outcome could lengthen Karen's life considerably and open up the question of this storm entering the Gulf … this will really put Karen into the history book despite not yet achieving hurricane status … more to follow on this one.


Hurricane Lorenzo is going strong in the tropical Atlantic and is a banker for major hurricane status. The problem is where Lorenzo will end up. The Models are forecasting an increasingly easterly track over the next 5 days and this, if I could have a licence to speculate, brings a very wide range of targets into the picture, such as the Azores and maybe even the Canary Islands … I have no knowledge of a tropical storm curving back to Africa, although a storm some years ago got close by landfalling in the Algarve, Portugal.

We will see … nothing will surprise me this season.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by PaulMakin » Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:26 am

seem to be getting back to normal now with power, water restored. comms still a bit sketchy but probably only marginally more so than normal.

Lorenzo has grown into cat 3 hurricane status and is travelling north west at approx 20mph. currently lying 600 miles west of the cape verde islands. he's not being predicted to make landfall anywhere in the islands

today has cloudless skies, very little in the way of breeze and it's already stupidly hot (07.30 local time) - one extreme to the other !

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Sep 26, 2019 6:14 pm

KAREN WEAKING?
LORENZO REACHES CAT 4


Thank you Paul.

West to East …


Speculation is growing of a new development manifesting itself in the western Caribbean and / or the Gulf over the next 2 weeks. Often, these developments lead to major hurricanes (i.e.; Wilma of 2005 is a good example) ... this is mostly down to Weather Models and based on the hospitable environment. Perhaps even a rogue thunderstorm could set things off.


Karen. According to the official forecasts, Karen is just hanging on to tropical storm status as the storm grinds to a halt well south of Bermuda. Karen is expected to make a turn to the east to the south of a ridge of high pressure and then building heights from the east look likely to bump Karen back to a westerly track and towards the Bahamas.

There is considerable speculation as to whether Karen will survive more than a couple of days under increasing south westerly shear or somehow manage to get to the Gulf, the latter option is looking increasingly unlikely and Tobago's gregarious legacy is facing it's end as an open trough ... I would never rule out Karen's energy regenerating though.


Hurricane Lorenzo looks magnificent as it strengthens to a Category 4 hurricane in the middle of the Atlantic. The track is firming up and most Models are in agreement and therefore the Azores will need to watch Lorenzo over the next week. Lorenzo still has plenty of scope to strengthen further, possibly reaching Category 5 status, but I expect the storm to weaken before it reaches the Azores.

There is huge speculation between the weather models as to whether Lorenzo's path will take the storm to the north or south of the UK in 8 or 9 days but I would say that if there are any surfers watching this post I suggest they get themselves to Nazare, Portugal for those giant waves.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Sep 28, 2019 9:23 pm

IT'S JUST LORENZO
HEADING FOR THE UK?


At last it is calm in the Caribbean although Hurricane Lorenzo is kicking out some heavy sea swells around the whole of the tropical and north Atlantic. As suggested in my last post, if you want to see big waves then Nazare in Portugal is predicting some whoppers between 2nd and 4th October … one day I will go there.

So we are down to one … Lorenzo.

The hurricane is moving very slowly in the mid Atlantic and about to turn to the north and then north east. Already there is some excitement among weather bloggers in the UK, speculating on whether Lorenzo will strike the north or south of the UK or France … Lorenzo will be big enough to affect all these parts.

But firstly, spare a thought for the residents of the Azores. Lorenzo is expected to pass these Islands close to the north at hurricane strength.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 29, 2019 12:27 pm

HURRICANE LORENZO GOING FOR THE AZORES

Lorenzo is huge and powerful but I expect the hurricane to weaken a little before it impacts the Azores. The track seems to take Lorenzo around the west and north of the islands but this is a very large hurricane and the Azores should expect hurricane conditions late Tuesday and Wednesday.

The only positive is that Lorenzo will be speeding up and going through a transition to an extra-tropical hurricane.

Media attention in the UK is increasing and, of course, warning that the UK will be hit by a hurricane towards the end of this week and over next weekend. Great emphasis is being given to Lorenzo's record breaking strength for it's position … you would think Godzilla was approaching.

So before anyone gets too excited, there is uncertainty in Lorenzo's track … Models are not in agreement with each other with Lorenzo possibly going north of Scotland or as far south as France. Some models are suggesting that Lorenzo will dissipate and be no more than a rain bearing frontal trough and there are numerous other factors that can influence the outcome of Lorenzo's last days.

Things should become clearer this week but it would take something special to top the rainfall the UK has already had recently.

Elsewhere, the tropics appear to be having a break after the high levels of recent activity … but it is not over yet.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Oct 02, 2019 7:09 pm

LORENZO KNOCKING ON UK'S DOOR
ENERGY FIZZING IN THE TROPICS


We are not going through a quite period in the tropics … the atmosphere is very lively with localised thunderstorms setting off quite randomly in most areas of the Caribbean and there is still a lot of focus on the south west Caribbean and the Gulf where, if the right conditions are in place, a storm could brew up very quickly.

However, in the tropical Atlantic the conditions are similar but a very dense wodge of dry Saharan Dust is moving off the west African coast and this could restrict the development of storms in this area.

A tropical wave is about a thousand miles east of Tobago and ahead of this is what you might call a 'blob' or pocket of moisture and I expect this will bring some heavy rain to Tobago over the next 12 - 24 hours.

So … Lorenzo ... The Hurricane has passed the Azores and is now extra-tropical, even though it still packs hurricane strength winds. These winds will reduce to Storm strength winds as Lorenzo approaches Ireland on Thursday (tomorrow). Lorenzo is then expected to turn to the south east so that the system will cross the centre of UK during Friday and Saturday.

There is little cause for alarm because Lorenzo will be weakening considerably and any flooding would be simply adding to the flooding already in place … the only potential risks are wind speeds around the coasts of Northern Ireland and the south west UK as per the UK Met Office warnings issued earlier today.

By the time Lorenzo has passed the UK it will become insignificant and a shadow of it's former self.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 06, 2019 11:26 am

QUIET

There is little activity in the Atlantic although there are a couple of areas in the mid-Atlantic that are trying to develop but these are not expected to be tropical, however, it is notable how tropical storms and hurricanes are managing to maintain their strength at higher latitudes. This trend has been increasing in recent years, although some may argue that the warm Gulf stream is behind it.

Hurricane Lorenzo was a long way from the Gulf stream and maintained it's tropical characteristics as it passed the Azores last week, then weakened rapidly as it approached Ireland.

So … will there be any more activity this season?

Yes … the tropical Atlantic is still bringing tropical waves towards the Caribbean but the chances of any serious development are low due to an extremely dense area of Saharan Dust being swept across the Atlantic. This reaches the extreme tropics and I would therefore suggest that any development in the tropical Atlantic is unlikely … at least for the next week.

Typically, at this later stage in the season, we would look to the south west Caribbean and the Gulf for tropical disturbances but this too has calmed down … for now.

The official hurricane season runs until 30th November so there are 7 - 8 weeks left … it is not over yet.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Oct 08, 2019 10:06 pm

ENERGY REBUILDING

The NHC is issuing advisories on 3 disturbances in the mid-Atlantic. 2 of these are east of the US Carolinas and these are likely to contribute to a very stormy period off the east coast of the US and Canada, but not as hurricanes and more likely as powerful depressions, with strong winds and heavy rain.

The other disturbance in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean does not look very tropical to me.

2 other disturbances are catching my interest …

As predicted, Tobago and the rest of the south east Caribbean are taking a lot of rain from a system associated with a tropical wave. I posted about this on last Sunday's Liquid Sunshine weekly update. This system will move west and should have cleared from Tobago by tomorrow's sun rise but I expect this system to develop and possibly become a storm or hurricane by the end of this week in the south west Caribbean.

The 2nd area of interest is a very strong looking tropical wave just vacating Africa … I think this could develop but there is a lot of dry air ahead and I have some doubts about this.

It is early days but I will post an update if anything significant or relevant happens.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by PaulMakin » Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:37 pm

that disturbance has hit now Paul - passage of an ITCZ with yellow adverse weather warnings from 06.00 wed to 18.00 thurs (local).

yesterday saw almost continual rain in the SW areas, from about 04.00 up until approx. 15.00. heavy showers followed and throughout the night. met office recorded 56.5mm rainfall in the 24 hour period as against 6.2mm for the month to that point. i assume these readings are from the weather station at the airport. accompanied by high, cool winds and blanket cloud cover. not heard of any incidents but cautions out regarding localised flooding, mudslides, soil saturation etc.

today has started wet with some very ominous clouds moving in from ENE. again, high winds and total cloud cover at all altitudes - kind of clouds building upon clouds. a lot of thunder in the area. waves 2.5 to 3 metres in open water.

considering another duvet day but Direct TV keeps going off and interweb gets patchy occasionally (although fair play to digicell - a mostly complete service maintained so far).

weather recordings from piarco seem to suggest that, on this occasion, it's tobago getting it rather than trinidad

will have to head out in a less "adverse" period - updates if anything changes

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Oct 10, 2019 4:20 pm

TOBAGO DISTURBANCE

Thank you for your feedback Paul.

I thought this system would last through Tuesday but it has continued to produce poor weather conditions up to today (Thursday) and I believe that it is a strong westerly shear that is pushing the rain-bearing clouds back to the east that is responsible for this prolonged rainfall … a bit like trying to swim against a strong current.

The worst of it is over Venezuela and Trinidad now but there could be some further rain for Tobago … I am hopeful that Friday will be much clearer.

I don't suppose you have got your hands on any rainfall data from Tropical Storm Karen? Either I don't know where to find it or my sources just don't provide it.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by PaulMakin » Fri Oct 11, 2019 3:07 pm

i have some basic data for the period that karen was visiting, c/o our meteorological services here so accuracy, whilst probably close enough, is not necessarily of a standard in more developed services.

crown point recorded 90mm for the period up to the 21st. over 21st and 22nd, 132mm was recorded by the met station at the airport. this compares with a monthly norm of 171mm in the area, so approx 80% of the monthly total fell in just one day.

thursday saw a sunny a.m. but a heavy, prolonged cloudburst at around 15.00. cleared overnight and friday is, so far, hot/sunny and breezy. forecast for the next few days is set fair. waves are "calm" in open water and nil inshore.

business as usual for now - longer range forecast tells of normal levels of rainfall and the usual weather conditions for the rest of the month. one bonus is that all the flora has sprung into life and everything is green with many species blooming enthusiastically. the unofficial "hot" season is now ended but not so that you'd really notice - shade and A/C very definitely the order of the day.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Oct 11, 2019 6:37 pm

SUB-TROPICAL STORM MELLISSA

Thank you Paul … about 5.2 inches … a drizzle compared to the 2004 Storm of 16 inches !

A couple of disturbances up the eastern coast of the US had 0% to 20% chance of development and I wasn't bothering to report on them.

Dink … suddenly, we have Melissa. It won't last long and it would not seem to make the impacts any greater, but this is development at a high latitude of 38 degrees which is rare, if not a record.

This year the Atlantic has warmed up while the Pacific has generally cooled. so maybe this could be a factor.

A new disturbance is expected in the west Caribbean in the next few days. As I said in a previous post, the activity tends to die down in the tropical Atlantic towards the end of hurricane seasons but the NHC is monitoring a strong tropical wave that has yet to leave the African coast.

Late October often brings another mini-peak in activity before it eventually dies down and the transition to the drier season begins.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 13, 2019 11:04 am

MELISSA & 2 MORE DISTURBANCES

I will start from west to east …

For the last couple of weeks the west Caribbean has been the most favourable area for development and, sure enough, that rainfall event for Tobago last week has arrived off the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua and is trying to turn.

While the environment looks good for development, the system is a little elongated and it is close to land and a landfall seems inevitable as it tracks west along the northern coast of Honduras towards Belize … whatever happens, the central Americas need to prepare for vast quantities of rain this week.


Tropical Storm Melissa is last week's surprise package but unlikely to maintain tropical storm status for long as it moves east away from the northern US and Canada coasts. The storm is creating large swells though. Melissa is expected to be picked up by the jet-stream and carried eastwards towards the UK and Europe where more than enough rain has fallen already this autumn.


On the west African coast is a strong tropical wave that has already formed a depression. The environment does not look suitable for development but the models are predicting that the system is going to take a sharp turn to the north west. This is going to give the Cabo Verde Islands problems but beyond that there is dry Saharan dust and the system will need to develop very quickly and get a closed circulation around it to survive this and cooler sea temperatures.

I am wondering if this system has the potential to beat the records set by Hurricane Lorenzo in terms of it's easterly position but it may not get near that if it does not overcome the problems I have outlined above.

I will post updates if anything dramatic occurs.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 13, 2019 8:12 pm

IT'S GETTING INTERESTING AGAIN

I was not expecting to do an update so soon after the 2019 Hurricane Season and Liquid Sunshine posts today but there has been a development.

The tropical wave and depression I referred to in the Liquid Sunshine post is now getting the attention of the NHC and they have issued an advisory with a low risk of development (20%) within 5 days and this disturbance is heading for the south east Caribbean just as Karen did earlier this season.

As the disturbance reaches the Caribbean this Wednesday conditions are not expected to be hospitable (similarly for Karen) and, of course, I have already covered the strong westerly shear that slowed last week's rain event down.

After the surprises we have already had this season, Karen being one of them, I recommend that Trinidad & Tobago and the Islands up to Antigua monitor this system carefully this week, as I will, and make the necessary contingency plans … just in case.


As I have done this post I may as well update on the other disturbances … Melissa strengthened slightly today but her demise is close ... The disturbance in the west Caribbean will cause a lot of rain over Nicaragua and Honduras but land interaction is likely to prevent it reaching tropical storm status which in no way suggests that this rain event is nothing to worry about … if it makes it across Belize and Mexico into the Gulf then it has a chance … the disturbance off the African coast now has a high chance (70%) of becoming a tropical storm / hurricane and may even go east of the Cabo Verde Islands … something for the Canary Islands to watch?

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:10 pm

STILL INTERESTING

From west to east (left to right) …

The disturbance in the west Caribbean has been mainly over or close to land. It will cross mountainous land and there is little chance of any status for this system other than being a rainfall event. If it's energy reaches the southern Gulf then something could happen … we will have to wait and see.

Melissa is now extra-tropical and will die out but some energy could boost a depression, of which there are many in the temperate zone, rushing across the northern Atlantic on a strong jet stream, pummeling the UK and Europe.

The depression east of the southern Caribbean has a very large outflow to the north east as the strong upper level wind shear attacks it from the west / south west. It is clear that this disturbance will struggle but there is a defiant pocket of energy to the south of the system … Tobago is not out of the woods yet.

The new disturbance off Africa has now developed into a tropical depression (15) and is moving north west. Rainfall is already affecting the Cabo Verde Islands, it will be windy and wet. There is a question mark on this depression as to how far it will drill through the Saharan Dust layer. The whole system is very large and this will also slow down development.

Out of these 4 areas of activity I think that the potential Gulf disturbance has more potential.


Tobago has had enough rain and this is currently falling over the island now as I predicted in Sundays' Liquid Sunshine post last Sunday.

This will clear away tomorrow until the next tropical wave / depression arrives on Wednesday ... watch out, the hurricane season is not over yet.


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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:28 pm

LESS INTERESTING

I think the NHC are getting a little trigger happy.

In last Sunday's Liquid Sunshine update I referred to this depression along a tropical wave, suggesting that it could bring rain today (Wednesday). This is now likely to be Thursday.

But the NHC started reporting on it and suggesting potential development. So I could not ignore this although I noted the strong outflow to the north east which indicates heavy wind shear from the south west. I don't know why the NHC did not pick this up although they suggested this could affect the disturbance as it approached the Windwards even though it was clearly evident it was already happening.

The African disturbance … 90% chance of a tropical storm or hurricane … it did not even get any better than a tropical depression and has since disappeared off the radar. It still offers strong winds and heavy rain but that's about it.

Don't think I am slagging off the NHC, they do a great job generally and their forecasts have improved massively in recent years, but they got it completely wrong this week. The Tobago issue could still lead to some rain on Thursday.

The system that has potential is the one in the west Caribbean and this is now in the Gulf … this one could develop and turn to the north east to threaten the southern US coast … this one is worth watching.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Oct 17, 2019 9:11 pm

GETTING INTERESTING AGAIN

I will start with Tobago and finish with the tropical depression (16) in the Gulf.

If we go back to my Liquid Sunshine post last Sunday then that is what is happening for Tobago although I got the timing wrong by about 12 - 18 hours … it's hard being a weather enthusiast !

A strong tropical wave is now affecting all of the windward islands with plenty of heavy rain. Earlier this week the NHC issued advisories on this system as a potential storm but that lasted no more than 36 hours. So this is reverting to what I predicted originally.


In the Gulf is potential Tropical Storm Nestor. It is currently a tropical depression and has done well to survive over the mountains of Mexico and arrive in the Gulf … this is an indication of the durability of this system which is now moving towards the north east and sending all the storm watchers crazy about the potential damage it could wreak on the southern US States and, particularly, Florida.

This is a big storm and probably big enough to stop it from developing into a hurricane. The main concern is the rain and it's potential status as Tropical Storm Nestor is academic, even though I know the potential status can excite people for all the wrong reasons.

So … lots of rain is likely for Alabama and Florida this weekend. Flooding is certain and there could be some pretty big storm surges along coastlines.

I will post updates if there are any surprises.

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:53 am

OLGA AND PABLO

2 Tropical Storms developed last week.

Olga formed in the Gulf but this was very short-lived.

The surprise was Pablo which formed in a very hostile area. This is a very unusual storm that has formed within a larger low pressure system. Pablo is also tiny and would probably not have been noticed if it wasn't for satellites. Pablo has skirted round to the south and east of the Azores and does not look like a threat to Europe due to blocking high pressure … the storm will move north west and become absorbed into the jet stream.

Pablo adds to the northerly and easterly trend of tropical storm formation … currently, the tropical Atlantic has no activity of this type.

There is still 5 weeks to go …

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:32 pm

YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AT 37 DEGREES NORTH

The most notable aspect of this season is the number of developments occurring at high latitudes … into the temperate zone. The NHC are issuing advisories on a disturbance just west of the Azores for the 3rd time this season and with a 70% chance of development into a Tropical Storm.

I doubt it will last long but it is important to note this.

There has been speculation that some Mediterranean storms have tropical characteristics at this time of year in the past but, of course, we can put all this down to the default reason … Global Warming, just as we can put this series of tropical developments close to the Azores down to the same reason.

I don't dispute Global Warming is happening but I do dispute the theories that the cause is down to human reasons. All humans do is pollute which needs to be checked and sorted … but the human contribution to global warming is negligible compared to the Earth's natural cycle of warming and cooling … many extinction events have happened in the past and our Earth has the power to balance everything from time to time, humans are just a small part of the process ... it is a bold statement and I am sure many would disagree with me … but it is my opinion.

My opinions aside, tropical disturbances popping up in the (sort of) north Atlantic are a sign of Global warming so it will be interesting to see what the 2020 Hurricane season brings.

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