2019 Hurricane Season

Weather reports, questions and comment.
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Paul Tallet
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:45 pm

TROPICAL STORM REBEKAH AND A NEW DISTURBANCE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC

The disturbance I referred to yesterday just west of the Azores has become a tropical storm. Not much of a future for this storm (Rebekah) but very notable for forming at about 38 degrees north of the equator. Yeah I know, it's global warming.

Meanwhile, deep in the dark shadows of the tropical Atlantic, there is life. A new disturbance but only rated as having a 10% chance of development by the NHC. This is worth watching because recent tropical waves have given Trinidad & Tobago some localised extreme weather conditions recently, so if nothing develops then Tobago can expect a vigorous tropical wave to pass through early next week.

November is, historically, the freak month for Tobago with weather conditions so I hope everyone there is ready.

I will post updates if I detect any developments.

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Paul Tallet
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:05 pm

CALM?

I choose my words carefully.

I have recently suggested that the NHC is becoming a little trigger happy but this is far better than the experiences of the past when Tropical Storms have developed before achieving their rightful status … keep it coming NHC, I would rather you be wrong … it saves lives.

So … all the threats of yesterday have disappeared … but no … as I have said repeatedly, a tropical wave can cause problems locally just as the last one has done over Tobago. And, November is a bogey month for Tobago … so expect more … and if nothing happens you can say 'well, that was an ok month'.

I am watching this carefully, just based on my experience, so stay tuned.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:16 pm

WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FOR TRINIDAD &TOBAGO
AND THE SOUTH EAST CARIBBEAN


My Liquid Sunshine post on Sunday gave advanced warnings of the potential for heavy rain this week, in additional to the risks of high seas.

The first wave has passed through and introduced rainclouds burdened heavily with rain. However, so far Tobago has not had the worst of this which has been concentrated over Trinidad, especially southern Trinidad.

It will get worse as a mass of rainclouds approach from the east with the second wave. The highest clouds are being sheared off by upper level winds from the west and this will moderate the rainfall to some degree but there is a real push from the east as the raincloud formation looks relentless and the rain created by the second tropical wave may merge with disturbed conditions from the ITCZ.

The ITCZ is the complicated part … the general wind conditions may moderate if the ITCZ gets close but, the other poison is that there is a chance that ITCZ linked storms could develop and these can produce localised squalls and downdrafts that can make you feel as if you are in a proper hurricane.

This is November. I keep talking about it. Precautions should be made for the potential of thunderstorms, prolonged periods of rain and extremely strong winds in some places coming from any direction. I see that weather warnings have been issued already.

This is not the time for fishing and snorkelling trips, beach barbecues or hikes in the rainforest … if you have planned any of these activities I say cancel them.

I expect potentially dangerous conditions to last for the next 48 hours and then we can address the 3rd tropical wave that will arrive later this week. There is a 4th tropical wave behind that so this unsettled period of weather could last well into next week.

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Paul Tallet
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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by PaulMakin » Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:05 pm

not much prolonged rainfall on tobago for the week yet but several very heavy (as in "stop the van and wait" whiteout style heavy)short showers. high winds yesterday but today is dull and gloomy with no breeze. rain expected during the rest of the day.

seas downgraded to moderate but that's pinch of salt material from the met office

paul

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:50 pm

Thank you Paul.

Wind shear is your best mate.

Satellite images are showing how ragged the rain bearing clouds are. Thunderstorms are developing but the higher cloud tops are being scraped off and outflowed to the east/north east, so any severe rainfall could be short-lived.

The images also show that most of the rain is falling to the north and south of Tobago and this emphasises the localised nature of the worst weather … maybe Tobago's turn is yet to come.

The ITCZ has stayed well south but there is a proper kink in the ITCZ with the next wave that will arrive late this week.

This type of weather looks set to continue but there will be some (short) breaks with some sunshine.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:27 pm

A short break before the next tropical wave moves in … by Saturday. And this one is bringing the ITCZ with it too.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:43 pm

NEW DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS

The NHC have raised the chances of development of this system to 60%. Again I am not sure if the NHC is being trigger happy again.

This system originates from the mass of cloud that I reported the week before last in Liquid Sunshine … this has been rather a dead area moving very slowly across the tropical Atlantic.

I agree that it could get it's act together but it is not threatening land areas yet and the weather models are locking on a north to northwest track that should keep it away from the Caribbean.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:05 pm

TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN

What a surprise in a season of surprises.

Sebastien is not a major concern and is going to avoid the Leewards, turning north, and unlikely to last very long.

But I thought I should report this for the record.

No further updates unless there are more surprises.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Nov 24, 2019 3:42 pm

SEBASTIEN TO AFFECT THE FAROE ISLANDS … UK EXPECTING

Tropical Storm Sebastien has been another, and hopefully the last, surprise of the 2019 Hurricane Season.

Like several before Sebastien, this storm has maintained itself well at a high latitude which is one of the many factors that environmentalists use to advocate their warnings about global warming.

Sebastien is moving north east and is expected to impact the Faroe Islands and arrive as a storm or trough of heavy rain in the UK around midweek.

I live within a couple of miles of the areas (Fishlake and Bentley) around Doncaster that were badly affected by flooding in recent weeks. I have not been affected by flooding but the flat land where I live is so saturated that even my little doggies start sinking when they venture out on my lawn for a pee .. ee … eee … ee stop!

So more of the deluge for the UK this week 8-[ .

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Paul Tallet
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