Hurricane ?

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Paul Tallet
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Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 26, 2004 8:43 pm

Hi Kate H.

I missed my calling ... the signs were there though, my short sightedness was discovered when I struggled to read the weather reports in the Daily Telegraph at the age of 4.

Worn glasses ever since and consequently, my understanding of weather has improved ... just a hobby ... don't take me too seriously.

<unbridled laughter in background and swiftly composes himself to continue with this string>

Anyway, Lisa and Matthew have gone their separate ways ... as tempestuous as it may have seemed at first, alas, it was not to be ... and Lisa is now meandering around in the mid-Atlantic like a lost soul and is weakening ... will she ever regain her strength after this tragic end to their relationship ?

Matthew was never mean't to be ... although perhaps another will take his name ... alas ... oh woe is/was he ?!?

Meanwhile ... by jove ... it's rather blustery here in the northern UK ... we are getting the extra tropical Karl ... switch on the TV and see all the reporters in Florida with their wetsuits on, being heroes with Jeanne.
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Kevin Hampson
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Post by Kevin Hampson » Sun Sep 26, 2004 9:02 pm

Hi Paul
You don't have to tell me about Karl, I'm sitting on an oil rig off about 100 miles off Shetland at the moment and the weather's been building all day we have had heaves of around 17m and about 50 knots wind speed so far with a forcast for a bit more.

Regards
Kevin

13 days to go

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Paul Tallet
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Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 26, 2004 11:34 pm

Hang on in there Kevin ...

17m ... that's cool ... not seen that since I was in the South Atlantic about 22 years ago ... in fact, I recall swells of 30m plus ... quite awesome isn't it?

Approx 165 days to go ... that's 3,960 hours ... 237,600 minutes ... well over 14 million seconds and counting ... I'm nearly as sad as you, but I will be sadder in 13 days when you get there.

How many seconds you got to go mate? ... I make it 1,123,200 seconds ... seems like a loooooooonnnnnnnnnnggggggggg time :twisted:
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Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Oct 02, 2004 4:23 pm

Spurned Lisa is coming to the UK tomorrow ... just losing hurricane status.

Otherwise all quiet down in the Caribbean ... still threatening waves from Africa but nothing forming.
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Kate H

Post by Kate H » Sat Oct 02, 2004 7:59 pm

LOL@your reply! You really did miss your calling whether (a-hem) that has something to do with wearing glasses or not.

Further: just talked to a friend in Tobago on the phone for an hour. Heavy storm on the beach in Castara and something about a hurricane alert. ?????? Much talk about learning from this *little* interlude with Ivan. In the meantime sounds of rain crashing down, music and liming in the cabana on the background....

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Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Oct 02, 2004 10:26 pm

Hi Katie

The storm is all over T & T ... it is mostly manifesting from pure convection off the mainland of South America and this is more typical of how it can be in the wet season ... just rain rain rain ... and the odd bit of wind.

Another very intense area of rainfall is sitting just to the east of Mexico ... both these systems can develop into tropical Storms or Hurricanes as they are, in fact, tropical waves ... just like the ones that form off the west African coast ... but if they are developing over places like Tobago, well, they have other places to go and other people to upset ... so that's good from our perspective.

I guess there will be some pretty serious rain for a while and this will not be localised just to Castara ... everyone in Tobago will get their fair share.

Meanwhile, back on the farm (so to speak), Lisa has just lost her hurricane status and is less than 12 hours from the south west of the UK.
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Brian Taylor
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Post by Brian Taylor » Sat Oct 02, 2004 10:48 pm

nothing about hurricane, but a bit stormy indeed...yeaterday the weather forecast called it "windy".
just watching the news and they say gusty winds will affect both trinidad and tobago. after IVAN we laugh about that... :lol:
Stephanie & Brian "Alibaba" Taylor
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Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 03, 2004 9:09 am

The large cluster of storms over T & T seem to be dissipating but of course anything can brew up very quickly from the mainland of Venezuela which is where the weather seems to be coming from for now.

It looks like the southern half of the Caribbean is very cyclonic at the moment and the general conditions should push any serious business coming from the east to the north of the whole Caribbean.

There are 3 more waves travelling west across the tropical Atlantic ... the first is at a low latitude just below Tobago to the east and this is just a cluster of nasty thunderstorms ... this seems to be linked to what appears to be a small developing circulation much further north.

Another wave is in the mid Atlantic and the third wave is developing just off the west of Africa.

No official forecasters seem concerned about these at this stage.

So ... all clear ... but I am watching Lisa who is approaching the southern half of the UK today. Anyone flying out to Tobago from Gatwick or Heathrow on Monday may have a bumpy take-off if it is not delayed due to the strong winds.
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Mark Hall

Post by Mark Hall » Sun Oct 03, 2004 10:54 am

Hi

Thanks Paul for your invaluable storm watching.

Flying out of Gatwick on Monday, so I will make sure I am psychologically prepared for the bumpy take off. :shock:

Just distant thoughts of a few Stag's & the odd Rum should do the job. 8)

Well, last minute panic packing & what have I forgot are the current issues. :?:

Thanks everyone for all the brilliant posts, I might be able to contribute some useful info on my return... Byeeeeeeee :D :wink: :D

Mark

Marian Young

Post by Marian Young » Sun Oct 03, 2004 12:28 pm

Hi Paul - any idea what conditions will be like re. flying and Tobago weather Thursday, as I shall be there for 7 days. Many many thanks for your fascinating posts. Marian :?

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Paul Tallet
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Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 03, 2004 2:32 pm

Hi Marian

At worst ... you could get some heavy rain as it is a bit cyclonic ... but there are no signs of any nastiness from Mother Nature.

Go enjoy your holiday.
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Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 03, 2004 3:20 pm

Update ...

T & T is experiencing intense precipitation right now (i.e.; torrential rain).

As stated earlier this is from a tropical wave but most of the convection seems to be coming off the mainland. It is unlikely to develop into anything more than a cluster of thundery activity and, if it did, would most likely move elsewhere.

Anyone holidaying in Tobago could expect very heavy rain over the next few days and maybe up to a week ... it will be sporadic and may lead to flooding and the occasional strong gust of wind.

I have seen reports of flooding from Trinidad already.

So ... Mark and Marian ... the sea is warmer than the rain ... and the Rum is cooler than the rain (subject to ice of course) ... and the sun will come out too ... choose your vice and keep us posted on your experiences.

The wave just east of Tobago has made no further progress in the last 6 hours ... but it is still there, so I will keep my beady eye on it.
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Kate H

Post by Kate H » Sun Oct 03, 2004 10:22 pm

Yes, Paul - please do keep your *beady eye* on this! I guess I should be happy I'm not able to get over to Tobago in October as planned. Perhaps November.... hopefully this exceptional season of huricanes will have subsided by then...

I'm still tuned into your forecasts - almost every day!

Marc Jones

Post by Marc Jones » Sun Oct 03, 2004 11:51 pm

Madness!

Just as most say "forget the weather" we have our very own (proficient) version of Michael Fish! :-)

Here's one for you Paul...

Late November is it usual to expect much in the way of different sea conditions to (for example) May.

I'm a bit reluctant to smash to bits my piggy bank to return if junior is likely to struggle beach-wise with big waves etc.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Oct 04, 2004 7:31 am

Heh Heh Heh.

Yes Mark ... the sea can be different.

In November it is more likely to be rainy and so all the rivers fill up and cloud the sea with their doings ... so not so good for beach snorkelling, particularly in Caribbean side ... but Junior would be happy.

In May the sea swells are quite heavy ... this peaks around March/April. Apparently it is the pounding of the sea on the beaches that attracts the turtles to lay their eggs ... hence this is the Turtle season.

The calmest period is June - December, so I am told ... but then the conditions can vary all the time throughout the year anyway.

Hope this helps ...
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Marc Jones

Post by Marc Jones » Mon Oct 04, 2004 12:11 pm

I'll never be forgiven for taking Junior out on Englishman's Bay where he was battered by a monster wave!

Took two visits to Arnos Vale to cure his sea phobia!

Thanks for the info.

We're looking at December more than Nov to be fair (ie go November 29).

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Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Oct 04, 2004 5:15 pm

Oh Lordy ... yes, Englishmans not good for little juniors ... recommend Mt Irvine west side for little ripples and no currents and you can explore the protecting reef.

Ice Creams in the resturant on beach.
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Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Oct 04, 2004 5:28 pm

Update ...

The rainstorms are abating ... but they could be back as it is very cyclonic.

But fantastic news ... a west-north-westerly airflow has developed over the southern Caribbean ... so although there may be lots of rain from the mainland convection systems, this can create alot of shear on approaching/developing waves/storms/hurricanes from the east ... of which there are about 4 tropical waves at the moment.

The nearest one is now to the south east of Tobago and this one should get a serious neck-shave and go north or get grinded out altogether.
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Marc Jones

Post by Marc Jones » Mon Oct 04, 2004 7:04 pm

We didn't go onto Mount Irvine beach - we did Arnos Vale twice and we also did Angel Reef twice.

Having missed out on a couple of recommended-since-we-returned beaches good for snorkelling is what's whetted the appetite to return!

PS am I the only one with visions of Paul in a command centre monitoring the weather something like Number 2's lair in the Prisoner? ;-)

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Paul Tallet
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Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Oct 04, 2004 7:16 pm

Yeah Mark ...

... but don't forget the fried egg, lapels and a good english accent my dear boy.

Oh er ... and the sharp looking 8) 70's style !!


Heh Heh heh !!
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