Hurricane ?

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Paul Tallet
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Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:53 pm

I noticed there was some shower activity over T & T yesterday but this is pure convection that can arise out of nothing from time to time.

T & T is well out of any influential airflow and it seems to be established in a very calm period ... the same can be said of much of the rest of the Caribbean ... this is relatively unusual so don't expect it to last very long ... I just cannot see a breakdown in this pattern yet.

Tropical waves continue to pile up in the east and get pushed back towards the north/northeast ... they need to travel several hundred miles further west before they worry Tobago ... nevertheless they are still there and will stay there as long as the current weather pattern holds.
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Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Oct 18, 2004 11:56 pm

I am sensing a gradual breakdown in the current weather patterns.

A south westerly airflow is developing over Tobago and, as an anti-cyclonic ridge appears to be pushing south down from the US, I expect this airflow to switch more to the west.

Consequently, this will allow the moist weather from the east to have more influence over the Caribbean and possibly allow some more convective business to arise from the south off the Venezuelan mainland.

Another developing ridge of high pressure to the west of Northern Africa will keep this moist air well to the south and therefore the southern part of the Caribbean is most likely to be influenced by this weather and then the whole of the Caribbean as the US ridge recedes back north.

This will not be dramatic by any means and the risk of prolonged showers will increase slowly towards the end of this weekend.

This easterly source of weather, as we know, can produce the nasty storms but I sense that the risk is now receding ... particularly to the northern part of the Caribbean and Florida where the sea surface temperatures have fallen quite dramatically over the last 2 weeks and will cause any significant storm to weaken before it reaches landfall.

As for the southern half (and Tobago) the development of storms can still be a threat as the sea surface temperature is always warm and we need to be mindful that the tropical waves have been developing at a very low latitude this year.

It still beats the hell out of the dreary weather in the UK and other parts of the northern hemisphere !!
Paul Tallet
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Kate H

Post by Kate H » Wed Oct 20, 2004 8:37 pm

It still beats the hell out of the dreary weather in the UK and other parts of the northern hemisphere !!
You bet!

I'm outta here (northern hemisphere) as of the middle of November for three weeks and although I don't really mind how much it rains on Tobago, I will definitely keep on keeping an eye on your updates :-)

cheers!

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Paul Tallet
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Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Oct 20, 2004 11:11 pm

Yeah Kate

The UK weather is going to beat the hell out of us tomorrow and probably for the rest of the weekend too.

That will teach me to trivialise UK weather with 'dreary' remarks ... Mother N. is not happy but I will take my beating like the man I am.

You will need some Dutch courage too ... seems like you might have a bit of a wind problem in the next few days too !!

Tobago had a few showers today but this cyclonic (and very humid) weather is still hanging on ... it could be like an oven when you get there.

Sheer bliss.

Regards
Paul Tallet
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Sue-S

Weather reports

Post by Sue-S » Thu Oct 21, 2004 8:50 am

Hello Paul, i really enjoy reading your reports. We are off to Tobago on 2nd December, and i just cannot get my head around the rain situation, i know you cannot tell me it wont rain, but is it torrential? the thoughts of sitting on a rain sodden beach or around the pool in the pouring rain leaves me a little scared i have to say. Carry on the excellent work, its brilliant.

Kate H

Post by Kate H » Thu Oct 21, 2004 9:35 am

Paul,

I'll need that Dutch courage for when I arrive back home in December :-(

Not for Tobago :-D

Keep up the great reports... and be nice to M.N.!

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Paul Tallet
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Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Oct 21, 2004 4:47 pm

Hi Kate and Sue

I am very proud to have served you with distinction ... thank you for your kind words of encouragement ... although Mother Nature has her own opinions !!

Please watch this space on Saturday as I am working towards a more organised method of keeping you and all other prospective visitors to Tobago up to date with the weather situation.

Sue ... when it rains in Tobago it can be torrential ... but it is not cold rain and I have enjoyed many a shower without even the need to vacate my sunbed whilst others rush for shelter ... presumably because they prefer not to get wet ... in fact it can be most refreshing on a hot day and you soon dry off.

The sea is even warmer so how about that lovely 'cold needles' massage on your back as you snorkel around watching the sealife during a lovely refreshing rain shower.

How's the wind down there Kate ?

Bit breezy up here.


Regards
Paul Tallet
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Sue-S

Weather

Post by Sue-S » Thu Oct 21, 2004 6:12 pm

Thank you again Paul, i think you should be offered a full time job on this web site, Michael Fish eat your heart out !!!! Regards Sue.

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Paul Tallet
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Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Oct 21, 2004 6:18 pm

Oh Lordy ... Fish ... Michael ... Tweed Jacket ... smug look on face ... lady says gonna get hurricane ... Oh No we're not ... remember 1987 ?
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Julie H

Post by Julie H » Thu Oct 21, 2004 9:57 pm

Over 10200 views for this thread.
Wow just shows how much we do all care about the weather! Could this be a record?
November is supposed to be the end of the Hurricane season! Do you think that will be the end of this Hurricane thread and you could start another? I forget which page I am up to. Love it really, no harm intended. :D
Maybe "Tallet tropical weather..tells it how it is"... I am sure you can think of something better. :idea:

Keep on with the good work. Julie H.
I just love using the little faces on this site.....

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Paul Tallet
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Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:57 pm

Hi Julie

Yes ... you are right, this hurricane thread is rather long and ... yes ... it is popular ... and yes I am looking into setting up a new thread in the weather section so that you can get the latest weather updates more easily on a weekly basis.

There is a problem though because I am wondering what the new thread should be called ... and I guess there are no more than 36 hours to decide ... the new thread is to be launched on Saturday !!

I have a few ideas but any suggestions would be most welcome but ... erm ... please note that Michael Fish retired from public service a couple of weeks ago !!

Regards
Paul Tallet
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Marc Jones

Post by Marc Jones » Fri Oct 22, 2004 1:12 am

"The Michael Fish Memorial Thread".

:-)

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Roel le Pair
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Post by Roel le Pair » Fri Oct 22, 2004 6:54 am

Paul Tell-It, wheather or not . . .
Roel le Pair
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www.sherwood-park.com

My photos: http://gallery.mac.com/roellepair

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Paul Tallet
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Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Oct 22, 2004 7:47 am

Not bad ... keep 'em coming.
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Julia C.
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Post by Julia C. » Fri Oct 22, 2004 7:58 am

Tallet's Tobago Weather Updates.

Sue-S

weather

Post by Sue-S » Fri Oct 22, 2004 9:10 am

Tallet's tales weather guru !!

David Watkins
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Post by David Watkins » Fri Oct 22, 2004 11:44 am

Paul,"Weather Tellit Tallet"!
David(50 days to go :D :D :D )

John Hill

Post by John Hill » Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:46 pm

BARMY WEATHER

Kate H

Post by Kate H » Fri Oct 22, 2004 11:03 pm

Hi Paul,

I can't think of a good name right now but I still think it's pretty funny that you happen to live in *Wetherby*

Wind is pretty calm down here and it's been warmer than expected as well (silence before the storm?) as we're expecting rain this weekend too - to answer your question.

I agree completely with what you wrote to Sue about the rain in Tobago!

Bliss!!!

Al Dorsa

Tobago recovery update?

Post by Al Dorsa » Sat Oct 23, 2004 1:33 am

Hi, this is my first post here and let me say how happy I am to have found such a good resource for information about Tobago... our next vacation destination. We've lived in St. Croix for over 20 years and have been through several bad hurricanes. We have also weathered a number of close calls that while unnerving, uncomfortable and inconvenient were "not a big deal."
Having read about a third of the postings in this thread, my impression is that Tobago got smacked by Ivan, but that damage wasn't all that bad. My question to the group is: has Tobago pretty much recovered from the effects of Ivan or not?
For those of us who live in the Eastern Caribbean, September is a month of fear and loathing. October is also suspect. But this November will be our first trip to TnT and unless I hear that the aftermath of Ivan is still a serious issue we'll be spending our Thanksgiving holiday enjoying your islands.

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