LIQUID SUNSHINE

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Paul Tallet
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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER (and Global Warming) ... 30TH JULY 2017

Rain is falling over Tobago as I type with this precipitation coming with the compliments of the first of 4 Atlantic Tropical Waves, possibly 5 within the next 12 hours.

After the current Wave has passed there should be about 18 hours of nicer weather until Tuesday when the 2nd Wave arrives, likely bringing further prolonged periods of rain.

The 3rd Wave is likely arriving late Thursday or Friday and this one is being monitored by the NHC, giving it a 30% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression within 5 days. The NHC issued advisories on a similar Wave last week that I didn't bother about and it dissipated as expected.

The same could apply to this week's NHC advisories on the 3rd Tropical Wave but we should maintain storm preparations and take these advisories seriously otherwise it is inevitable that you get caught out.

It is now becoming clearly evident that extreme or unusual Weather conditions have been (and will be) occurring in many parts of the world, coupled with rising seas as glaciers and polar ice retreat and this is notable in Tobago where I am sure the sea has risen by about half a metre over the last 20 years. Some of Pigeon Point has already been lost to the sea and the large boulders of rock that have been strategically deposited along parts of Pigeon Point are an indication of this concern.

An Ice Cream shop used to occupy the space where these rocks now sit, protecting Pigeon Point from beach erosion.

The 4th Tropical Wave is a long way off and a 5th Tropical Wave is just leaving the African mainland.

So, next week will have periods of rain but there should be plenty of sunshine inbetween.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 6TH AUGUST 2017

This week's weather depends on what a vigorous Tropical Wave in the mid-Atlantic does and a dry tongue of Saharan Dust to the north of this Wave does.

I have been posting on this disturbance (among others) in the 2017 Hurricane Forum over the last week and what looked like being the first major Storm of the season is now looking like it could dissipate altogether. However, you just don't know what could set it off ... the risk is small and reducing.

Although it is currently raining sporadically around Tobago, the week ahead is looking better than recent weeks because I believe that the Tropical Disturbance will not be an influence on Tobago's weather and a rather weak layer of Saharan Dust should deter any significant rainfall.

Also, there appear to be no Tropical Waves that could reach Tobago and the Caribbean before next weekend ... there is a small risk of rain moving up from the south.

Therefore, there is a high risk of sunshine this week ... !

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 13TH AUGUST 2017

Last week's good weather for Tobago was just as I expected with the exception of some rain during the middle of the week from a Tropical Wave associated with a Tropical Disturbance that was well north of the Caribbean and is currently east of the US as a new Tropical Depression.

This week is looking different with a much higher chance of unsettled weather from Tuesday onwards when another Tropical Wave will introduce high levels of moisture to the Caribbean.

Behind this Wave is another vigorous Tropical Wave which is attracting attention from the Weather Models that seem to be in some agreement that this disturbance could develop into a Tropical Depression or Storm by the end of this week.

It is too early to say what impact this could have on the Caribbean (if it goes there) but it is trundling along on a westerly track and, if it starts spinning, is likely to go North of Tobago.

I will post updates on this system in the 2017 Hurricane Forum if this develops.

The week ahead looks fine until Tuesday when the risks of rainfall increase for the rest of the week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 20TH AUGUST 2017

Last week, Tropical Storm Harvey passed close to the north of Tobago with it's centre crossing the south of Barbados.

Tobago was under the southern area of the Storm's canopy and experienced a prolonged period of heavy rain.

This is the 3rd named Storm to pass over or nearby Trinidad and Tobago in this season which has not yet reached it's peak.

TS Harvey has since moved into the Caribbean Sea and yesterday was blown apart by heavy wind shear. Today, Harvey is looking much better and I think he could regenerate before landfall in Central America, possibly Belize, Nicaragua, Honduras or Mexico.

My Hurricane 2017 forum has been reporting on Harvey and 2 other disturbances over the last week.

Back to Tobago. Harvey has left a lot of moisture in his wake and therefore there is substantial shower activity around the eastern Caribbean today. Although the Hurricane Season is approaching it's peak I believe that there should be an overall improvement in the Weather this week.

A vast and dense layer of Saharan Dust is moving across the Tropical Atlantic and I expect this to make Storm development virtually impossible in the Tropical Atlantic this week. By the end of this week I expect the Saharan Dust layer will be inundating the Caribbean and reducing most shower activity.

The only thing that can spoil the weather for Tobago this week is low pressure building from South America.

So, generally, there should be an improvement this week for Tobago with limited rainfall and more in the way of sunshine.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 27TH AUGUST 2017

Tobago and most of the eastern Caribbean enjoyed good weather last week thanks to a dense area of Saharan Dust in the atmosphere.

As the Saharan influence reduced late in the week some cloudiness and rainfall affected Tobago over the weekend.

There is a higher risk of rain this week with 2 Tropical Waves on the way and less of the Saharan influence.

Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Hurricane Harvey regenerated in the Gulf of Mexico ... Harvey passed close to the north of Tobago 10 days ago as a weak Tropical Storm ... and eventually made landfall in Texas as a Category 4 Hurricane. The world media is covering the unfolding disaster in Texas and Louisiana where Harvey has stalled and is expected to dump 50 or more inches of rain while moving very little for the rest of this week.

Another development is occurring off the east coast of Florida and this could bring heavy rains and strong winds to South and North Carolina later this week.

Over in Africa, a strong Tropical Wave is expected to enter the Tropical Atlantic and this will need watching as it could affect the Caribbean next weekend.

Updates on all these Storms are posted in the 2017 Hurricane Forum.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 3RD SEPTEMBER 2017

The weather is going to be extremely difficult to predict this week due to 2 Tropical threats to the Caribbean.

I expect the weather for Tobago to be fine until Tuesday.

The first threat is from the already developed Hurricane Irma that I expect will have a direct impact on the northern Leeward Islands from Tuesday afternoon onwards. I am expecting that the outflow from Hurricane Irma could bring widespread rain to all of the Windward Islands including Tobago during the middle of this week.

Please note that I do not expect Tobago to experience any direct impacts from this Hurricane.

Hurricane Irma is expected to remain a major Hurricane all week and this will create heavy surf that will affect most of the Caribbean.

The second threat is a Tropical Wave that is expected to reach the Caribbean towards the end of this week and it is the southern Leeward Islands that need to monitor this disturbance for which the NHC currently give a 60% chance of development within the next 5 days.

There is speculation that the wake and outflow from Hurricane Irma would weaken this disturbance and prevent development but I would still expect this disturbance to bring heavy rains toward the end of this week.

I will be posting regular updates in the 2017 Hurricane Forum about these weather events throughout this week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER 10TH SEPTEMBER 2017

Last week was a highly active week of weather dominated by Hurricanes Irma, Jose and Katia.

These Hurricanes, particularly Irma's southerly outflow, increased the general moisture and humidity levels across the Caribbean bringing rain to many areas.

This sets the trend for the coming week also, coupled with more Tropical Waves on their way.

Hurricane Jose' outflow to it's south is also magnifying areas of moisture coming across the Atlantic.

So, the week ahead for Tobago looks unsettled with plenty of rain and some of it could last for long periods and be quite heavy at times.

But when it is not raining, there should be sunshine or moon shine.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 17TH SEPTEMBER 2017

Expect a wet start to this week as outer rain-bands and southerly outflow from Hurricane Maria extend over Tobago from the North for the next 2 or 3 days.

The presence of yet another Hurricane in the Caribbean is going to increase rainfall risks everywhere.

However, towards the end of the week there could be a drier and more settled period as a tongue of dense Saharan Dust looks set to cover the eastern Caribbean.

Please refer to the 2017 Hurricane posts for more details on Hurricane Maria ... apart from rain and possibly heavy surf, the impacts on Tobago from Hurricane Maria will be minimal.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 24TH SEPTEMBER 2017

The Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea have had a Hurricane or Tropical Storm every day for almost 5 weeks.

Currently, 2 Hurricanes are churning in the Atlantic Ocean.

Hurricane Lee has been an on and off Storm ... originally the stronger of 2 Tropical Waves that moved off Africa 3 weeks ago, but it was the weaker Wave that found the right conditions to develop into the now famous Hurricane Maria.

Both these Hurricanes have had vastly different paths as Lee struggled but it will be Maria that will be retired and Lee will be back in another future Hurricane Season.

Both of these Hurricanes, Hurricane Irma and the long lived Hurricane Jose (all 4 of them) have combined to leave unprecedented levels of moisture across the Caribbean which is currently under total cloud cover with areas of rain.

A Tropical Wave a few hundred miles east of Tobago will likely introduce a change to drier conditions as Saharan Dust is behind it ... an indication of less rain.

So there will be a gradual improvement this week for Tobago and eventually the rest of the Caribbean.

Although there are no signs of any Storms developing over this week, apart from possibly the Gulf of Mexico, don't forget that the peak of the Hurricane Season lasts until mid-October and it is far from over yet ... however, I would be surprised to see another major Hurricane this season (fingers crossed) due to the fact that the seas will have been cooled by the monstrous storms in recent weeks.

Although these Hurricanes are dangerous and can cause fatalities and devastation, they do have a purpose and are crucial contributors to cooling the seas and our climate ... Irma, Jose and Maria will have cooled the warm Gulf Stream that goes north up into the Arctic so it will be interesting to see if the Arctic Sea Ice makes a bit of a comeback, against the trend, this coming winter.

Generally, the warmer the seas then the more Hurricanes there will be to cool them.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 1ST OCTOBER 2017

It may seem calm by comparison to the last 2 weeks but the weather has been very active over the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic.

The recent Hurricane activity has left high levels of moisture and the NHC has issued advisories on a few disturbances that have threatened to flare up but the general situation is too disorganised and hostile to support new Storm Activity.

As a consequence, outbreaks of rain across the Caribbean is very common and the rainfall is pepped up by the passing Tropical Waves.

2017's wet season has been a proper wet season ... it would be interesting to see if there are any nerds that keep records because, to me, it rains just as much all year round and I have pined for a visit to Tobago in June and July when I have considered it to be the best time of year ... er, no ... not this year.

This week ... it is raining sporadically over Tobago as I write and there is heavy rainfall over Trinidad and this is pretty much typical of the last 6 weeks.

This rainfall should clear away tonight and there should be some decent weather for tomorrow (Monday).

Tuesday may be OK too depending on how soon another chunky Tropical Wave takes to reach Tobago and the rest of the Caribbean this week.

So, another unsettled week lies ahead with high levels of humidity so when the sun does come out it will be hot.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 8TH OCTOBER 2017

This is the time of year when the wet season really peaks and the humidity can be challenging for some, and 2017's wet season is looking exceptional.

The sea temperatures are absolutely cooking and way over the norm. Successive Major Hurricanes have cooled the seas in the northern Caribbean to some degree but still these areas are above the average. It's little wonder that these Hurricanes can explode into such intense Storms in these conditions.

This prolific Hurricane activity has saturated the atmosphere to such an extent that localised downpours are common anywhere in the Caribbean.

Low pressure is dominant over the south west Caribbean, central Caribbean and in the Tropical Atlantic.

The Atlantic High is currently squashed between these Tropical systems and the jet-stream over the northern Atlantic, bringing the autumnal Storms to Northern Europe.

Right in the middle of the Atlantic is a Depression that the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) has been issuing advisories on over the last few days and this system is doing more than threatening to become a Tropical Storm, it is cutting off the supply of dry Saharan Dust that normally travels from northern Africa and across the Atlantic to the Caribbean, reducing the rainfall.

a succession of Tropical Waves continue across the Tropics but conditions here are not as likely to spawn major Storms as they were a few weeks ago. Instead, Storm formation is often more common from within the Caribbean at this time of year (i.e.; recent Hurricane Nate originated from the Caribbean Sea just north of Columbia).

So what has this got to do with Tobago?

The general situation is calm, but expect showers to occur often and there is a chance that rainfall could be more persistent by Tuesday as a depression moves in from the east. This is not a Storm but Depressions like this can produce alot of rain as they move into areas with high moisture levels, high humidity and cooking sea temperatures.

There should be plenty of hot sunshine between showers but be prepared for this prolonged period of rainfall around Tuesday.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 16TH OCTOBER 2017

This is a bit late but I have wrenched myself away from the Hurricane conditions approaching Ireland and would you believe it ... no Hurricanes in the Caribbean!

But there is a disturbance near Puerto Rico that could brew up and pose challenges for Bermuda later this week.

Tobago is under the Tropical Wave that produced the disturbance in the north and there is plenty of rain around which sets the tone for the first half of the coming week ... 2 more rain bearing Tropical Waves are on their way.

By the end of this week the weather should improve and there is some hope that a new swathe of dry Saharan Dust will reach the Caribbean by the weekend to suppress the rain and bring finer weather.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 22ND OCTOBER 2017

A full week has passed by without any tropical disturbances to worry about in the Caribbean but it has been a proper wet season this year.

Tobago had a couple of sunny days last week but it is now raining again as I type this post.

This rain should clear away tomorrow but there is another Tropical Wave on the way bringing an increasing risk of rain from Tuesday.

Around this will be the normal pattern of sunshine and showers.

I am hoping, of course, that Tobago will be lush and green for my arrival in December ... and dry! Last year was a nightmare with the Weather with rain on most days through December and January ... 80,640 minutes to go.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 29TH OCTOBER 2017

Brrrrr ... just returned from a short break in bonny Scotland and it reminded me of why I have not been there that much ... freezing and very very windy ... I arrive home to thaw out and my heating has packed in ... and you ask yourself, why does the heating fail always when it's winter?

No such problems in Tobago, anyone thinking of setting up a Heating Installation Company in Tobago would likely be unsuccessful in seeking investment for such an ambitious venture.

It is so warm in Tobago that it makes the rain feel colder ... of which there has been much.

The week ahead looks just as unpredictable as last week but at least it will always be warm, a weather feature that I often forget, until I visit places like Scotland and wonder why the first settlors decided to settle there ... perhaps they arrived in July and thought it seemed alright ... even the hardiest Romans avoided the place ... perhaps they built Hadrians Wall to keep the Scots there or perhaps to mark the distinction between bearable and unbearable weather conditions ... who knows!

Back to Tobago ... Another Tropical Wave is moving in but, having seen the complete destruction of the last Tropical Wave by wind shear, it is difficult to predict if this system will bring much rain.

Conversely, the dirty weather from over the South American mainland is threatening and could bring a few periods of persistent rain this week and possibly alot of cloud cover. Very difficult to predict.

Meanwhile, in the middle Atlantic, a disturbance is brewing in the area where Hurricane Ophelia was spawned ... if there are any developments you will find them in the 2017 Hurricane Forum.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 5TH NOVEMBER 2017

The end of this month will mark the end of the (official) wet / hurricane season.

I will be interested to see the statistics because I believe that this has been a very 'wet' wet season and I cannot think of any areas in the Caribbean that have not had above average rainfall.

In addition, and assuming no further Tropical Storms develop between now and the end of November, it has been a rather short and intense Hurricane season with a procession of extremely violent Storms over a relatively short period of weeks rather than months. It will be interesting again to see what energy these Storms generated between them over such a short period of time and how this compares to very active seasons such as the legendary 2005 Hurricane season.

I feel sure that Trinidad and Tobago have had more rain than normal since June with 3 Tropical Storms passing close by early in the Hurricane Season and plenty of rain right up to now ... Trinidad seems to have been affected the most with regular flooding at low levels.

This week starts with the complete absence of the Atlantic High which is centred west of Europe and, therefore, Low Pressure dominates the Tropics allowing more clouds to form quite readily and a consequence of this is an increased risk of rain for all areas of the Caribbean.

Tobago has the additional risk of the dirty weather from the South American mainland which was a regular feature of last week's rather wet weather.

Although there are little in the way of more organised Weather systems moving around the Tropics, outbreaks of rain can develop anywhere.

There will be sunshine this week but any rainfall could be persistent and last hours rather than minutes, particularly overnight.

I am sure all this mucky weather will clear up by the time I arrive ... I am owed a little more sunshine this time after a rather wet holiday last year through December and January.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 12TH NOVEMBER 2017

The weather is fine in Tobago but there are a few battles going on around the tropics between the good, the bad and the ugly (weather over South America).

There is no High Pressure, the Atlantic High is sitting just south west of the UK and most of the Saharan Dust that usually get blown across the Atlantic to the Caribbean (reducing rainfall) is being blown into the Mediterranean.

So, Low Pressure dominates the Tropics and this usually means calm conditions but localised risks of rain anywhere.

Tobago's main threat of rain this week is from South America, otherwise I would expect it to be a fine week of weather.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 19TH NOVEMBER 2017

Last week was ok for Tobago with mostly fine weather.

This is continuing but there is a risk of some prolonged rainfall from a Weather Trough that spans the globe from the Canary Islands right across the Atlantic and into the Central Caribbean Sea where a Depression has formed, dragging ugly weather up from the South American mainland.

During the course of last week the Atlantic High sank southwards towards it's usual position and this brought decent weather to most of the Caribbean.

But now the Atlantic High is shrinking away North again, allowing this large trough to move eastwards across the Atlantic but dragging it's heels in the Caribbean. The depression that has formed in the Caribbean is producing large volumes of rain that is mostly falling into the Caribbean Sea.

It's slow moving too but it will affect most of the Caribbean during the course of this week and further areas of rain could plume up from South America.

Having said all this, Tobago could be in for a fine week of weather and avoiding this ugly weather in the central Caribbean. This is partly due to Tobago's location at the extreme south east of the Caribbean.

We are just 11 days away from the official end of the wet / hurricane season and it does look as if the weather is calming down ... famous last words!

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 26TH NOVEMBER 2017

Last week brought some rainy days to Tobago but the weather is looking fine right now as a moderate plume of Saharan Dust is now moving across the east and southern Caribbean.

The Atlantic High is trying to build southwards through 2 Low Pressure systems;one over the eastern US and another over the Canary Islands which is blowing some of the Saharan Dust back over Africa.

A large mass of disorganised rainfall fills the tropics over the Atlantic but this is being sheared away back to the east. But on the surface it is calm ... often described as the 'doldrums' where there is barely any wind.

Frontal troughs are affecting the northern Caribbean.

So the east and southern Caribbean is sandwiched between these areas of moisture, neither of which look like spoiling the weather here.

I expect the High Pressure to continue building south and hopefully the trades will pick up, bringing fair weather. Just a small risk of some rain moving up from Venezuela.

I have confidence in the week ahead and, of course, next weekend will mark the beginning of the Dry Season.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 3RD DECEMBER 2017

It looks like there will be a wet start to this week as an area of rain approaches from the east, associated with a Tropical Wave. It looks like this area of rain will weaken a little due to some strong shear working against it but there could still be some heavy periods of rain here and there.

After Monday there should be an improvement as high pressure builds southwards and westwards behind this wet weather and another depression way to the north east of the Caribbean.

This means that the rest of the week should bring fair weather with trade showers, the showers falling mostly at night or the early hours of the mornings.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEATHER ... 10TH DECEMBER, 2017

The weather continues to improve although last week most of the Caribbean was basking in sunshine while Tobago had a few interruptions to this with a few die-hard remnants of cloud and rain left behind by the Tropical Wave that passed over Tobago at the beginning of the week.

This week a very dense area of Saharan Dust is covering the Caribbean. This is sufficiently dense to snuff out most rainfall although the odd rogue and short-lived shower could be generated by Tobago's own eco-system.

So a good week of fine weather ahead, possibly a little hazy and a good chance of seeing some spectacular sunsets.

Next week's Liquid Sunshine could be delayed as I will be traveling over the weekend to Tobago and will likely arrive late Sunday but, unless my carer gives me permission to unpack my man toys on Sunday night, the next update is likely to be on Monday, 18th December ... on location.

Struggling to contain my excitement :mrgreen:

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