LIQUID SUNSHINE

[Paul Tallet]

RAIN UPDATE ... 23rd JUNE 2008 ... 1600 BST

Some heavy rain is pushing ahead of the Tropical Wave that I expect will pass Tobago tomorrow.

The rain is moving up from the south and east and is already affecting parts of Trinidad.

Tobago should start to get wet in the next few hours and it could be quite wet overnight and throughout tomorrow.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 30TH JUNE 2008 ... 1000 BST


Hi everyone

This week's update is a little late as I have spent a wonderous weekend in Manchester in pouring rain to see a Radiohead concert for which the clouds miraculously dispersed ... what an awesome show it was ... very un-Tobagolike ... I wonder if there are any Radiohead fans that use this forum? Or were you there at the LCCC?

Anyway ... I digress ... Weather ...

Last week was a wet one thanks to 2 Tropical Waves and the ITCZ which moved a little north and kept the rain going between the Wave activity ... the most rain that Tobago has had for some time.


General Situation

The wet trend seems set to continue across most of the Caribbean and this will be thanks to a series of Tropical Waves that are on their way.

Also the pressure gradients between the Atlantic High and Low pressure over South America are pulling strong trades across most of the Caribbean.

As yet there is little sign of any Tropical Storm development so the 2008 Hurricane season has been very kind so far.


Tobago this Week

There will be sunshine but there will also be plenty of showers and some longer periods of rain as the Tropical Waves pass through.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 5th JULY 2008 ... 1130 BST

Hi everyone

It has been an interesting week with a small flare up that never got going just south of Puerto Rico and Tropical Storm Bertha which has broken records for developing just off the African Coast.

Please see the 2008 Hurricane Season string for more details on Bertha.


General Situation

The strong Atlantic High is keeping TS Bertha on a more southerly track as she crosses the Atlantic.

It is generally unsettled with alot of moisture around the Caribbean due to several Tropical Waves but very settled and drier towards the south east.

No further Tropical Waves have formed since the introduction of Bertha.


Tobago This Week

It is much calmer and drier than recently and as far as I can see this should continue until mid-week at least. At this time of the year the conditions can change more rapidly so don't be surprised if there is a mid-week update!

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

MID WEEK UPDATE ... HEAVY RAIN ... 10TH JULY 2008 ... 1745 BST

I thought there would be an update ... could feel it in my water !

The ITCZ has moved north and is much closer to Tobago. This brings potentially very unsettled conditions with little warning.

As a consequence there is very heavy rain falling over Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada and the Dutch Antilles.

This is all Hurricane Bertha's fault as she sucked up the ITCZ towards the north earlier in the week as she travelled across the Tropical Atlantic.

This rain could set in for a while and it probably heralds an unsettled week ahead.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 13TH JULY 2008 ... 1945 BST

It has become increasingly unsettled in the Caribbean over the last week and we now have our first worry of the Hurricane Season ... details to follow ...


Last Week

Hurricane Bertha pulled up the ITCZ which brought plenty of rain to Trinidad and Tobago during the week. Moisture levels have increased across many areas of the Caribbean and the Tropical Atlantic has become increasingly active in the production of Tropical Waves ... so something has to happen.


Current Situation

The Atlantic High is strong and the Saharan dust is diminishing ... there is alot of energy in the Tropical Atlantic.

Hurricane Bertha has just weakened into a Tropical Storm and is a marginal threat to Bermuda as she meanders around over cooler waters ... I would give a prognosis of 4 or 5 days for Bertha before she gets wrapped up in an Atlantic depression and eventually gives Iceland, the Uk or Northern Europe some grief sometime next week.

Another development is winding up just off the coast of Carolina but this does look too bad ... Tropical depression at best I guess.

What I am really worried about is brewing up about 1,500 miles east of Tobago ... this one (Invest 94) is an event for next weekend or as early as Thursday or Friday depending how quickly it continues on it's westward track.

Trinidad & Tobago and the other Lesser Antilles are at risk of Tropical Storm or Hurricane conditions ... this development is at a very low latitude and the strength of the Atlantic High gives me little confidence that this event is going to take a more northerly track ... so this needs watching ... please refer to the 2008 Hurricane thread for updates on this.


Tobago this Week

Not good I'm afraid ... I predicted that conditions would become more unsettled and they already have. Heavy rain associated with a Tropical Wave is now moving in and will set in for the night at the very least.

There should then be some sunshine and showers until at least Thursday but we then have a potential event for the end of the week ... watch this space.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WARNING OF SEVERE WEATHER ... 16TH JULY 2008 ... 1430 BST


Tobago should be on stand-by for some severe weather that is iminent in the next 3 hours and likely to stay for another 48 hours.

Very heavy rain is moving in from the east and this is associated with what I suspect is a Tropical Depression with the potential to develop quite quickly into a Tropical Storm ... the NHC are looking at this system more closely before they issue any warnings.

Further details are in the 2008 Hurricane String ... expect heavy rain and strong winds.

Feedback on conditions over the next 48 hours would be welcome in the Liquid Sunshine Feedback String.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 19TH JULY 2008 ... 1630 BST

Oh Lordy ... what a week!!

Bertha has regained hurricane status and I sense that this will be one of the longest surviving Tropical Storms in history ... Bertha is over cool waters and racing straight towards Iceland ... the nice thing about this (sorry Iceland) is that she could bring some very warm air up over the UK next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Invest 94 ... one of the most frustrating developments I have come across ... how close this has come to development and just could not get it's act together ... there is still potential as it moves north towards Jamaica and Cuba ... these developments do not have to become Hurricanes to wreak damage ... Trinidad & Tobago, the Dutch Antilles and many Islands to the north took alot of rain off this system and I have seen many reports of strange winds and squally conditions as this system continued on it's path.

At one point, yesterday, there were 4 seperate areas of development around the Caribbean and the western Atlantic ... we are now down to 3 with a Tropical Depression forming off the eastern US coast.


General Situation

In 2 words ... very unsettled. The Atlantic High is receding north and that is blocking Bertha from curving west towards the UK.

The ITCZ is well north and producing rains across Trinidad and Tobago.

There is one more Tropical Wave on the way but this shows no sign of development and there is very little rain associated with it.

I see things settling down this week after the next Wave passes through.


Tobago Next Week

It is raining heavily now with the ITCZ close by ... this should clear up by tomorrow. It should continue to be a little unsettled but I sense that the next Wave will arrive Tuesday/Wednesday and this should bring more settled conditions for a while.

Don't forget that at this time of year the weather conditions are very unpredictable so don't be surprised if I come up with more updates during the week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 26TH JULY 2008 ... 1000 BST


Last week was a very busy week as plenty of energy developed in the Tropics.

Invest 94, that tracked over Tobago the previous week bringing plenty of rains, eventually formed into Hurricane Dolly and made land fall over southern Texas as a Category 2 Storm. Texas and northern Mexico will have had significant rainfall as Dolly slowed down ... she is now just a low pressure system.

Otherwise the weather has quietened down.


Current Situation

There are 2 features. Invest 97 that looked promising but tracked north over cooler waters ... this is associated with a strong Tropical Wave ... there is still a risk of development as the depression moves over warmer SST's but this is well north of putting the Caribbean at risk.

The other feature is the ITCZ that has moved north again. There is some rain activity close to Tobago and mostly to the east.

Otherwise, there is some heavy stuff brewing in Africa that could bring another surge of energy across the Atlantic later this week.

Most of the Caribbean is dry with alot of Saharan Dust in the atmosphere but there is some moisture to the south and east of the Caribbean.


Tobago this Week

It is looking like the showers will increase this weekend and there could be some longer spells of rain from time to time with the ITCZ close by. This makes the weather very unpredictable. So very hit and miss.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

MIDWEEK UPADTE ... 29TH JULY 2008 ... 2200 BST

It has been really calm for the last 48 hours but there is some weather associated with a Tropical Wave to the east and south of Tobago ... expect a higher risk of rain in the next 48 hours.

Otherwise I am watching a potential development off Africa ... very low risk at this stage.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE ... 1ST AUGUST 2008 ... 1800 BST

The heavy rain currently falling over Tobago is ITCZ related and not related to a Tropical Wave.

This has been the trend on and off throughout this week as I mentioned in last week's Weekly Update.

Some reports of high winds associated with this weather are merely typical of the squalls associated with the violent thunderstorms that the ITCZ can produce.

I will post the next weekly update this weekend.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 2ND AUGUST 2008 ... 1030 BST

Last week was quite a wet one for Tobago mostly due to the proximity of the ITCZ with 3 periods of heavy rain over the course of the week.

Having said this, there has been a significant reduction in the energy coming across the Atlantic so we are in a relatively quiet period.


General Situation

Steady Trades are bringing a combination of sunshine and showers across most of the Caribbean but to the south the ITCZ is generating longer periods of rain across the northern coastal areas of the South American mainland and other Islands in this vicinity.

2 Tropical Waves are in the Atlantic with one carrying a circulating depression (Invest 99) ... this is quite well organised but has little rain associated with it ... the depression is at a high latitude and will only develop further if it finds warmer seas ... if development does occur there is a very small risk of this affecting any of the Caribbean and a moderate risk of landfall on the eastern US coast.

There is plenty of moisture around due to the lack of Saharan Dust and the close presence of the ITCZ.


Tobago Next Week

It looks like the trend will continue with a risk of rain that can fall for longer periods from time to time.

This weekend looks OK following the last period of rain that fell yesterday ... but the closeness of the ITCZ makes the weather very unpredictable.

There will always be good periods of sunshine though.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 9TH AUGUST 2008 ... 0930 BST

It was another wetter than average week for Tobago as a succession of Tropical Waves passed coupled with the effects of the ITCZ that has moved quite close.


General Situation

The Atlantic High is very dominant and strong winds over Africa are carrying large volumes of Saharan dust across the Atlantic.

There are no threats of Storms but there are 2 Tropical Waves on their way and a new burst of convection off the African coast that could develop into a 3rd Wave.

There is not currently much rain associated with the first 2 Waves and any bursts of convection are likely to be stifled a little by the Dust in the atmosphere.


Tobago Next Week

It looks like it will be a drier week overall with a smaller risk of rainy periods. It could get quite hazy. I would expect the week's theme will be sunshine and showers and a very small possibility of some extra rain on Sunday and Monday as the next Wave passes through.

Only the ITCZ could spoil it if it moves much further north.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE ... 10th AUGUST 2008 ... 0930 BST

Having posted yesterday's weekly update a number of changes have occurred.

Firstly the ITCZ has moved north and is situated right over Trinidad and Tobago. The Saharan Dust has receded to the north a little as the next Tropical Wave moves in. There is not much rain with this Tropical Wave but the ITCZ complicates things and therefore the risk of more shower activity applies for the next 24 hours.

Another dry interlude should follow before the next Wave moves in for mid-week ... the NHC have identified a circulation in this Wave and issued warnings of possible development in the next 2 days ... again, there is not much rain but there is plenty of moisture and very warm sea temperatures so it would be relatively easy for development to be triggered by these 2 factors.

As if that is not enough, a 2nd area of potential development is not far behind. Both areas are following the same westward track and are roughly on the same latitude ... if something happens with the first area the chances of the second area developing are quite slim because the churning of Tropical Storms have the effect of cooling the sea in their wake.

As I said, both of these areas of energy are following a westward track and there is a strong High Pressure ridge to the north that I would expect to keep them on this track for at least the next 2 days ... There is still plenty of Saharan Dust to the north of these areas and this is the strongest factor that could snuff the energies out.

This is an unexpected development and I have just seen the latest predictions of all the Hurricane forecasters that have unanimously raised their expectations of Hurricanes for 2008 with this peaking in September. The key reason appears to be that the seas temperatures are about 1 degree warmer than the last couple of years but not quite as warm as during the record breaking 2005 season.

Obviously other factors can affect the development of Hurricanes but if all the factors combine (as they will do from time to time) it is possible that there will be 5 or 6 major Hurricanes before this season is over.

I have copied this to the '2008 Hurricane' and any further developments will be posted there.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 17TH AUGUST 2008 ... 1115 BST

It is now very difficult to forecast more than a few days as the energies in the tropics have become very volatile and unpredictable over the last week.

Although it looks like matters have quietened down near Africa, something can pretty much develop out of nothing.

SST's are warming and the wind shear and saharan dust that normally restrict Storm development have almost disappeared completely ... a consequence of this is an ideal environment for Tropical Storms to form ... so almost anything is a potential risk.


General Situation

TS Fay that I have been tracking over the last week is set to bring very unsettled weather to the northern Caribbean and Florida over the next few days.

High pressure rules in the Atlantic and there is little in the way of saharan dust to nullify moisture levels.

2 Tropical Waves are crossing the Atlantic, the first is arriving in the Caribbean in the next 24 hours and the second one is due for Tuesday or Wednesday. there are no ominous signs yet but that could change very quickly.


Tobago this Week

It's looking good with most of the weather to the north so I expect Tobago should see the usual mix of sunshine and showers for at least the next few days.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

ADVANCE WARNING FOR THE WEEKEND ... 22ND AUGUST 2008 ... 0800 BST

The weather has deteriorated this week partly due to a Tropical Wave and partly due to the proximity of the ITCZ ... unfortunately it does not look like getting much better.

It looks like a busy weekend as I will be tracking a tropical disturbance to the east which looks likely to affect Tobago late on Saturday and through Sunday.

The NHC are giving this a 'medium chance' of developing into a Tropical Depression or Storm and the conditions look set to improve for this possibility as the disturbance moves nearer to the Caribbean.

I sense that the centre of the disurbance will track just to the north of Tobago but I would expect Tobago to get some heavy rains at the very least.

Please see the 2008 Hurricane blog where I will be providing updates.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 23RD AUGUST 2008 ... 0945 BST

Not my usual update this week ... too much activity going on ...

It has been a very unsettled week across most of the Caribbean with Tropical Storm Fay being the main focus and making 4 landfalls on Florida!!

For Tobago, the weather started going downhill on Wednesday as the first of a series of strong Tropical Waves passed through ... there has not been much improvement since and I don't expect any improvement before Monday.

A Tropical disturbance is now just to the east of Tobago. The first band of rain and thunderstorms are over Tobago right now but the low centre has about 150 miles to travel before it reaches Tobago.

Later this afternoon, this evening and overnight there is a risk of very heavy rain and squally conditions. There is a chance (about 50%) that this depression could develop but this seems more likely after it has passed Tobago.

My advice is to be prepared and don't under-estimate the weather conditions from this afternoon and until Sunday ... hopefully it will come to nothing but don't take risks.

Once this potential spinner is out of the way we then have 2 further Tropical Waves to watch ... the 2nd of the 2 has just left the African Coast and the satellite shows that there is a circulation along the Wave. Too early to tell.

Overall ... it looks like an active week of weather ahead ... I will keep posting updates but please also look at the 2008 Hurricane blog for further information ... feedback is also appreciated in the Liquid Sunshine Feedback blog.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 30TH AUGUST 2008 ... 1100 BST

It has been a very active week with very unsettled weather to the north of the Caribbean and developments in the Atlantic ... Apart from last weekend, Tobago has had a very quiet week by comparison.


General Situation

The northern Caribbean is the focus this weekend with Hurricane Gustav currently pounding the Caymans and Tropical Storm Hanna threatening the Bahamas. The focus will switch to the Gulf as Gustav is expected to move north west as an extremely dangerous and powerful Hurricane ... see the '2008 Hurricane' string where I have been posting frequent updates on these events.

Elsewhere, in the Atlantic there is a succession of strong Tropical Waves developing off Africa and I predict at least 1 major Hurricane will form in the Atlantic over the next 2 weeks. Who knows where any system will go but 2008 is turning out to be a very active season and the whole of the Caribbean should be prepared to batten down the hatches.

The southern half of the Caribbean is relatively quiet but there is considerable moisture in the atmosphere, high sea temperatures and the ITCZ is at a high latitude ... this makes the tropics a potentially explosive environment for any disturbances that develop.


Tobago this Week

I expect the quiet weather to continue this weekend but it really is difficult to predict more than a few days in the current circumstances.

There is a very very small risk from the Wave that has just emerged from Africa and this is almost a week away but I expect this to track well to the north of Tobago so at least there is currently no threat from any Tropical disturbances.

My senses (which is all I have to go on !) tell me that Tobago will have another good week of weather unless the ITCZ flares up.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 6TH SEPTEMBER 2008 ... 1500 BST

Tobago has enjoyed a very good week of weather in comparison to the bedlam caused by Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Hanna in the northern Caribbean.

A consequence of this is a rising death toll and a growing disaster zone in Haiti and parts of the Dominican ... and it's not over yet.


General Situation

Tropical Storm Hanna is now bashing the eastern coast of the US, will probably disrupt the US Open Tennis and will then quickly speed across the Atlantic to bring unsettled conditions to the north of the UK by Thursday this week.

Hurricane Ike is a major concern as he tracks just north of Puerto Rico into the Bahamas as a major (Cat 3) Hurricane. Again Haiti and the Dominican are at risk from strong winds and heavy rains from the outer bands of Ike. But Cuba could have a problem particularly if the capital, Havana, takes a strong hit.

Further out in the Atlantic, Josephine looks like she will come to nothing but there is still plenty of energy yet to come off Africa.

A Tropical Wave is moving into the eastern Caribbean and this will bring some unsettled conditions to the southern and eastern Caribbean for the next few days.

Please refer to the 2008 Hurricane string for updates on tropical Storm and Hurricane activity.


Tobago this week

The nice weather is coming to an end this weekend as thunderstorms and heavy rain associated with a Tropical Wave and the ITCZ move in from the east.

The risk of prolonged rain is high from now until Monday and thereafter it should clear up and revert back to the normal regime of sunshine and showers.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HEAVY RAIN RISK ... 7TH SEPTEMBER 2008 ... 0930 BST

The area of thunderstorms to the east of Tobago has intensified into a large and organised blob on the satellite pictures.

As a consequence, the risk of a prolonged period of very heavy rain has increased for Tobago today and tomorrow.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HEAVY RAIN UPDATE ... 7TH SEPTEMBER 2008 ... 1500 BST

Luckily, most of the rain has affected Barbados but it is still getting closer to Tobago with the far east of Tobago getting heavy rain.

The risk remains but hopefully it will be more to the north and not too prolonged.

Regards