LIQUID SUNSHINE

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet »

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 13TH SEPTEMBER 2008 ... 1400 BST


General Situation

Hurricane Ike is grabbing all the headlines as he makes landfall in Texas. Please refer to the 2008 Hurricane string for updates.

The rest of the caribbean is relatively calm although there are 2 Tropical disturbances in the Atlantic.

The first disturbance is just east of the Bahamas and there is a small risk this could develop ... the other one is halfway across the Atlantic and, again, development is unlikely.

A Tropical Wave is moving over the eastern Caribbean and there are 2 more on the way.


Tobago this Week

The Tropical wave now moving across could set off one or two lengthy showers today and tomorrow. Otherwise the weather is OK ... the rain risks rise during the week when the next 2 Tropical Waves arrive but otherwise the weather looks like being reasonably settled.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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UPDATE ... 16TH SEPTEMBER 2008 ... 1000 BST


Moisture is increasing as the next Tropical Wave moves in and thunderstorms are developing to the east of Tobago.

The risk is higher to the north but I would not be surprised if Tobago catches a heavy thunderstorm or longer spell of rain later today, tonight and tomorrow, by which time the Wave will have passed on.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 20TH SEPTEMBER 2008 ... 1300 BST


4 days ago I predicted a risk of heavy rain for a couple of days as a Tropical Wave moved in from the east.

A depression associated with the wave has become, sort of, detached and remains an area of Tropical disturbance over the whole of the Windward Islands ... a consequence of this for Tobago has been 4 days of heavy rainfall with a few breaks and today, the 5th day, it is still raining on and off.

The problem is that this system is hardly moving and the risks of development are increasing although it looks likely that this system will begin to make progress westwards and any development will hopefully happen elsewhere ... but everyone in Tobago should remain cautious for at least the next 24 hours ... I expect more thunderstorms to flare up this afternoon and don't forget that some pretty strong winds can occur as well.

Generally and elsewhere ... it is relatively normal for the time of year with plenty of Tropical Waves marching westwards across the Atlantic ... I am watching a very vigorous looking system just about to come off the African coast in the next 2 days which could be the next Cape Verde Storm ... I already feel confident that this will be too far north to affect the southern Caribbean.


Tobago this Week

As soon as this persistent system gets out of the way the weather should settle down but probably not before Monday.

There is alot of moisture and energy about plus the nearby ITCZ ... so it is looking like rainfall is an ongoing risk all week.

I dare say there may be an update later in the week but keep watching the 2008 Hurricane thread for details of any Storm activity that arises.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 27TH SEPTEMBER 2008 ... 1000 BST


Last week saw the slow goodbye to Tropical Storm Kyle who caused more rainfall damage, before she acquired this status, over the whole of the Windwards, Puerto Rico and the Dominican ... Haiti had a kucky escape.

Kyle is now moving north as a marginal Tropical Storm or Category 1 Hurricane with Bermuda just to the east of her track ... unpleasant weather ahead for Canada.

Elsewhere in the Caribbean it has quietened down apart from a small disturbance over the Yucatan Pensinsula and there is another disturbance just off the coast of Carolina.


General Situation

The Atlantic High has built to the north and we if go clockwise around the Atlantic this has brought settled weather to the UK and northern Europe and allowed alot of depressions to form near the south of Europe, notably near Portugal and off the north west coast of Africa. Along the tropics are 2 Tropical Waves, one of which has an area of disturbance but the conditions are not that good for any development.

Into the Caribbean, there are 2 relatively weak Tropical Waves but a fair bit of rainfall is happening over the Central Americas due to the ITCZ.

Moisture levels and humidity are quite high everywhere and this increases the risk of rain as Tropical Waves pass and depending on the proximity of the ITCZ.


Tobago this Week

It looks quite settled right now but I sense the rainfall risks increase from late Monday and Tuesday as the next Tropical Wave passes and kinks the ITCZ into a more northerly position. This Wave is quite strong and there is some disturbance along it ... although it is unlikely to develop it is likely to bring some unsettled weather for a couple of days for Tobago and the eastern Caribbean in the mid week and then possibly the conditions for development will be better after it has passed.

Please note the effects of Tropical Waves can be very localised and there is the possibility that some areas will not experience anything at all ... so I am just saying that the risks of rain are higher ... the disturbance along the Wave is more likely to affect areas to the north of Tobago.

Another weaker Wave is shortly behind this one so there may need to be un update during this week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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UPDATE ... 30TH SEPTEMBER 3008 ... 1815 BST


The good news is that little rain has materialised from the first Tropical Wave ... while it still has alot of moisture with it the upper atmosphere has become very dry ... so very little rain and therefore the disturbance has disappeared.

The next Wave is due in a couple of days and there is a very small risk of rain with this ... the 3rd Wave looks more like bringing rain towards the weekend.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 4TH OCTOBER 2008 ... 1515 BST

Last week was quite strange ... I predicted rain for the end of the week and then (in the 2008 Hurricane string) I suggested it has quietened down with evidence that high clouds were restricting the heavy moisture from developing rain clouds.

All of a sudden the combination of the ITCZ and a Tropical Wave brought very heavy rain for Tobago yesterday ... the rain clouds developed very quickly and this just shows how unpredictable the weather can be in the tropics.

It is still raining in Tobago but the Wave should move past over the next 6 - 12 hours.


General Situation

The remnants of Tropical Storm Laura are now affecting the UK with heavy rain that could cause some flooding this weekend.

The Atlantic High has resumed it's normal position but a strong ridge of High Pressure has extended across the northern Caribbean.

A Tropical Disturbance is affecting western areas of the Caribbean near Belize and the ITCZ is quite high in latitude ... there is also plenty of moisture and humidity about so I am expecting the next week to be quite wet in many areas.

In the Tropical Atlantic there are 3 Tropical Waves, one just passing Tobago and 2 more ... so we can expect a couple of rainy periods between now and next weekend.


Tobago this Week

A wet weekend as the first Tropical Wave moves past ... the ITCZ is close by so there could be further rainy periods with little warning. As always there will be plenty of sunny interludes.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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RAIN ... 9TH OCTOBER 2008 ... 1130 BST

Showery activity has increased over Tobago as the next Tropical Wave moves in.

The real business is just to the east of Tobago and there is some very intense rainfall to come later today and overnight.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 11TH OCTOBER 2008 ... 1300 BST


It is still raining quite heavily around Tobago as a strong Tropical Wave passes slowly through.


General Situation

Plenty of moisture is in the atmosphere across most of the Caribbean and the Tropical Disturbance now affecting Tobago could go on to develop later in the week as it approaches the Central Americas.

In the Atlantic a very large area of disturbance looks increasingly likely to develop into a Tropical Depression ... the forecast models are predicting this won't affect any land areas but, as far as I am concerned, the Atlantic High is quite strong so I cannot yet see a recurvature to the north ... for now I say that the Caribbean is at some risk and this disturbance should be watched over the next few days.


Tobago this Week

A wet weekend ... a settled interlude ... then the next Tropical Wave associated with the Tropical Disturbance I mentioned earlier. I will probably do some updates ... keep an eye on the 2008 Hurricane string where I provide more regular updates on Tropical Storm developments.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 18TH OCTOBER 2008 ... 1300 BST

Last week's Tropical Disturbance that provided Tobago with plenty of rain did, in fact, develop and eventually became a major Category 3 Hurricane (Omar) over the northern Antilles. Omar then imploded out in the Atlantic and now looks like disspiating completely before he manages to get anywhere near Europe.


General Situation

The tropics have recovered some energy with several Tropical Disturbances in the Atlantic and the Caribbean.

From Tobago's point of view it is what is coming from the east as there are 2 quite strong Tropical Waves on the way.

There are other Disturbances near the Central Americas and just south of Haiti ... plus, of course, Omar who is well on his way out of the equation.


Tobago this Week

The first Wave is about to arrive and this, combined with the ITCZ, is bringing a high risk of heavy rain and Thunderstorms from today and through Sunday and should probably clear by Monday.

Next up ... by Wednesday, is the next Wave and this brings a very large area of disturbed weather that again increases the risk of rain during the letter part of the week.

So it looks like Monday and Tuesday are the best days of the week for those planning a day on the beaches.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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RAINY MID-WEEK UPDATE ... 23RD OCTOBER 2008 ... 2130 BST

Hey ho ... as predicted, Monday and Tuesday were OK, Wednesday sort of OK ... but now on Thursday the rains have been falling heavily for much of the day.

This is mostly ITCZ stuff ... the Tropical Wave has yet to arrive and, unfortunately, periods of rain are likely to be prolonged and heavy through tonight and tomorrow ... it could be Sunday before this clears up.

Be wary of possible flooding now and over the next few days.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 25TH OCTOBER 2008 ... 1200 BST


Last week was quite wet for the first part ... a break and then the downpours on Thursday which cleared up alot earlier than I expected but it was pretty much as I predicted.


General Situation

It is much more settled in the Caribbean with plenty of dry air.

There are several Tropical Waves in the Atlantic but most of these are affected by dry air except one Wave which is about 5 or 6 days away.

The unpredictable ITCZ is up on Tobago's Latitude and this is the only factor that can spoil the weather for the first part of the week.


Tobago this Week

It's looking much more settled and it should be very calm with the presence of the ITCZ but this can bring unexpected heavy showers from time to time.

There could be a rainy period by Wednesday or Thursday on the arrival of the aforementioned Tropical Wave but it is too early to be sure.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 2ND NOVEMBER 2008 ... 1545 GMT

It's very quiet ... no Tropical Waves ... the 2008 Hurricane Season is ending on a very soft note ... still, there is another month to go and we should not be complacent.


General Situation

Not much happening really ... bit of a disturbance in the south west Caribbean, otherwise OK.

A Low Pressure system is in the mid-Atlantic and could bring some wet weather to the Caribbean by Wednesday ... but otherwise it looks OK for most of the Caribbean this week.


Tobago this Week

Normal ... sunshine and showers, maybe some rain midweek.


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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 8TH NOVEMBER 2008 ... 1045 GMT


The weather has been very quiet for Tobago over the last week.

I mentioned a small disturbance in last weeks post in the south west Caribbean ... lost interest and took a few days off watching the weather and now it is a major Category 4 Hurricane (Paloma) which could reach Category 5 before it moves directly over Cuba ... just shows how unpredictable the weather can be.


General Situation

Apart from the devastation that is about to take place in Cuba, the rest of the Caribbean is quiet and there are no Tropical Waves in the Atlantic.

The 2008 Hurricane Season was seemingly grinding to a halt but there are 3 official weeks left ... but apart from Hurricane Paloma there is not much happening elsewhere.


Tobago this Week

The usual trend of sunshine and showers, the showers falling mostly at night.


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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 15TH NOVEMBER 2008 ... 1230 GMT

Although the Hurricane season is not officially over for a couple more weeks, it does look like all the energy has died down and the Caribbean is settling down to the traditional pattern of weather that applies to the 'apparent' dry season.

But there are some complications ...


General Situation

The Atlantic High is slightly displaced to the west and this is squeezing the pressures and bringing strong trade winds across most of the eastern Caribbean.

A Depression has formed just to the east of Tobago and this will bring some heavy rain to the east and southern areas of the Caribbean over the next few days ... it has already been raining on and off around Tobago.


Tobago Next Week

A bit of a wet weekend to start with before this depression moves on out of the way. Then a return to fresher sunnier and showery weather.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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MID-WEEK UPDATE ... 19TH NOVEMBER 2008 ... 2345 GMT


It looks like the prolonged and heavy spells of rain will continue for a few more days.

A Tropical Wave has now formed to the east and this should pass through in about 24 - 36 hours ... here's hoping the weather will clear up by the weekend.

In the meantime, the risk of heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding is quite high so be careful if planning trips in rural areas of Tobago.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 22ND NOVEMBER 2008 ... 1030 GMT


Last week was very wet ... one of the few occasions in the year when rain has fallen quite steadily for more than 2 days ... this moisture has moved on to the south west Caribbean and the weather is nice for now.


General Situation

The only notable things are a deep depression just off the eastern coast of Florida and a Tropical Wave just to the east of Tobago and, of course, the wet weather that affected Tobago last week that is now situated in the south west Caribbean.


Tobago this week

It is very quiet now but there is a risk of some rain on Sunday and Monday as the Tropical Wave moves through.

Otherwise it should be a much nicer week than last week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEEKLY UPDATE ... 30TH NOVEMBER 2008 ... 1000 GMT


Today officially marks the end of the 2008 Hurricane Season. Although not as active as originally predicted, it will not seem that way for Cuba and Haiti which took the brunt of 5 major Storms.


General Situation

Dry air is over most of the Caribbean over which there is a strong area of High Pressure and strong trades to the south of the High.

A large trough stretches from east of the Caribbean eastwards right across the Atlantic.

Unsettled weather is affecting the Gulf and the extreme north of the Caribbean due to depressions over the southern US ... it's looking quite unsettled off the east coast of the US for the next few days.

The ITCZ is well to the south and there is Low Pressure over Venezuela.


Tobago this Week

Tobago is on the edge of everything, dry air to the north, a trough to the north east and Low pressure to the south so it is a little unpredictable. As long as the latter 2 factors stay put then Tobago will have a good week with sunshine and showers.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet »

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 6TH DECEMBER 2008 ... 1230 GMT


I was interested to read about beach erosion in a post this week from Jorg.

According to Jorg, erosion has taken place at the northern/western ends of Englishmans, Pirates and a bay near Mount Irvine. I am not sure if it is to do with the Hurricane activity this season but it would seem that is the most likely cause.

Everytime I go to Tobago I stay in Castara and the beach always looks different ... the sand is shifted around all the time and it even changes while I am there over a 2 week stay ... the river also changes it's track.

Hopefully the sand is not disappearing and it is just getting shifted about.

Anyway ... weather ...


General Situation

It is quiet and settled with alot of dry air across the Caribbean but there is a depression just to the east of the windwards that is moving east and increasing the trades across the middle section of the Caribbean.

An area of moisture is producing showers mainly to the south of Trinidad and Tobago and at the northern extreme of the Caribbean it is a little unsettled due to the presence of a frontal system.


Tobago this Week

It's looking quite showery until this little pocket of moisture moves away so expect more than the usual amount of rain over this weekend.

As the week progresses the weather should improve.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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EARLY UPDATE ... 12TH DECEMBER 2008 ... 1930 GMT

Just a quickie to say that there is a bit of rain on the way in the next 2 to 3 days.

More details in tomorrow's Liquid Sunshine weekly update.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

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WEELKY UPDATE ... 13TH DECEMBER 2008 ... 1230 GMT

The weather has been very nice across most of the southern and eastern Caribbean as dry air has set in over the last week.


General Situation

A large area of moisture is sitting in the mid-Atlantic associated by 2 troughs.

One of the troughs is to the east of the Windwards and it looks like a depression could form behind the trough.


Tobago This Week

The weather is fine and dry generally but there is a small risk of rain later this week depending on soon the trough to the east moves across. It is possible that the rain could dissipate as it moves into the dry air over Tobago so it may come to nothing.

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