LIQUID SUNSHINE

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:51 pm

WEATHER ... 18TH DECEMBER 2017
ON LOCATION IN TOBAGO


The weather is fine with occasional rain showers, mostly at night.

Today was beautiful and it was a shame that I had to do shopping as this was the first day.

There does not seem to be any sign of a change in this weather although the Saharan Dust is breaking up a little. But more is on the way.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:03 am

WEATHER ... 24TH DECEMBER 2017
ON LOCATION IN TOBAGO


Last week's weather could not have been better with light showers (mostly overnight) and strong sunshine and very calm seas.

I have not experienced this type of weather before at this time of year, in particular the calm sea state. This time last year there were 2 to 3 metre waves crashing on Castara's beach.

How long will it last?

The Atlantic High is steady and bringing increasingly stronger trade winds this week. The waves are building a little this evening. The trades mostly affect the Atlantic side of Tobago where it was quite choppy today but not significant.

The waves will likely get stronger this week but hopefully not strong enough to scupper some boat trips I have planned on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Areas of rain are running off the South American mainland and going north east and to the east of Tobago. This is the source of bad weather for Tobago but it looks like it will stay out in the Atlantic ... if the Saharan Dust returns the risk of any rainfall from the south will decrease significantly.

I am confident of another good week of weather but the sea could get a little rough, particularly around Wednesday.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Dec 30, 2017 8:47 pm

WEATHER ... 30TH DECEMBER 2017
ON LOCATION IN TOBAGO


Talk about extremes!!

The first week of my holiday was likely the best weather I have experienced.

In last week's forecast I referred to the risk of bad weather that can plume up from the South American rainforests and affect the south and eastern Caribbean from time to time.

At that time the rainfall was pluming away to the east of Tobago and out into the Atlantic however since last Wednesday it has changed direction and is now pluming over Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada and Barbados.

This is very bad and unpredictable weather, the risk of which increases the further away the Atlantic High is and the risk increases further with the absence of the Saharan Dust. At best it is cloudy and at worst heavy rain sets in and it can last for days.

Cloud and rain (with occasionally strong winds) has affected Tobago since last Wednesday and the rainfall amounts have increased each day. A large tree came down in Bloody Bay yesterday and with it came down power lines and it blocked the road. Mini-landslips are everywhere and water run off from coastal ridges has deposited brown silt around the coasts. Of more significance is the debris being washed down the rivers, turning bays such as Castara, Englishmans, Blood Bay and Parlatuvier into what look like mud-baths with the silt extending well out to sea.

Today (Saturday) it has rained continuously and heavily and the sat loops don't give me much confidence for tomorrow as this very large area of rain is almost stationery over the south east Caribbean and being energized continuously from further plumes of moisture moving north from South America.

The outlook for this next week is negative. When the rain stops it will take some time for the debris and sediment in the sea to clear. Lower your expectations and hopefully you will have a nice surprise later this week when this rain finally stops.

It's still better than being in the UK ... it's still nice and warm in Tobago.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:47 am

UPDATE ... 1ST JANUARY 2018

The rains have dispersed and the weather and sea conditions have returned to normal ... or what I have come to expect at this time of year.

After such a dreary weekend the weather is now looking more positive.

A large area of dense Saharan Dust is being pushed by strong trades across the Atlantic and most of the Caribbean should be under the influence of this by midweek. There were some heavy showers today but once the Saharan effect is in place the showers should be a little lighter.

The sea conditions were also a little heavy today. This should moderate a little this week but there are signs that the sea conditions could get very heavy next week and I will update this in next weekend's Liquid Sunshine post.

The clarity of the sea is still not that good close to beaches due to the sediments that washed down the rivers during the recent rain event and the surf today has not helped matters but it is clearing and should be OK for snorkelers by Wednesday in most beaches.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:50 am

WEATHER ... 7TH JANUARY 2018
ON LOCATION IN TOBAGO


Unusual weather patterns are affecting the west and north-west Caribbean due to a frontal trough associated with the depression that has brought freezing conditions to the eastern US.

So, from Puerto Rico westwards the weather is poor with alot of rain.

For Tobago the weather has been sublime apart from a cloudy day on Saturday. There is always a risk of this mucky weather that plumes north from South America from time to time.

Sea conditions are unusually calm for this time of year although there are some occasional rollers coming in. Castara has had the heaviest waves this week and it is calm elsewhere at both ends of the Island.

This week looks good too ... plenty of Saharan Dust around to keep significant rainfall at bay. There is bound to be the occasional cloudy or showery day but generally the weather looks good.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:51 pm

WEATHER ... 14TH JANUARY 2018
ON LOCATION IN TOBAGO


It's shaping up to be a disappointing high season in the Caribbean, especially in the north west where a frontal trough has doggedly remained, keeping the rain flowing.

Tobago and some of the south eastern Caribbean have been affected mostly by the murky weather from the rainforests of South America.

This is not to say the weather has been poor, it has generally been good but the risk of cloud and rain remains high as areas of moisture plume randomly over the south eastern Caribbean, dropping rain here and there and in other cases bringing cloud cover.

The majority is sunshine but predicting where and when the rain will fall can only be reliable in a matter of hours rather than days.

This pattern has applied over the last week and is very likely to be the case for the next week.

This is my last post from Tobago and I am leaving a partially cloudy/sunny day with occasional spurts of rain.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:26 pm

WEATHER ... 21ST JANUARY 2018

Tobago is still under this southerly flow of weather, bringing cloud and occasional light rain from South America. On some days this gives way to sunshine particularly during the middle of last week.

On the other hand there is dense Saharan Dust in the atmosphere and this is restricting moisture and keeping the cloud and rain to a minimum.

So it's a matter of taking it day by day. It could be sunny, cloudy or there could be a rainy day and the chance of a really heavy shower.

When weather comes from a southerly direction it is difficult to predict where and when rain will happen. Trinidad & Tobago are the closest Caribbean Islands to this southerly source ... the Windwards to the north are better protected from rain if Saharan Dust is part of the mix.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:06 pm

WEATHER ... 28TH JANUARY 2018

This week is going to be very similar to last week.

There is no particular weather and little in the way of trade winds.

The general pattern is getting a little westerly right now which pushes what there is of any Saharan influence back east, although at times over the last week the weather has come from the south and the east.

We don't want south.

Surface winds are currently coming from the north east and only exposed areas will feel these winds.

So we have very little movement. A positive factor is the sea will be generally calm and it will likely get much calmer towards the end of this week.

Rainfall can occur. One day Grenada or Barbados will get it and the next day Tobago could get it but, with little movement in the weather patterns, it will be sublime when the sun shines.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:01 pm

WEATHER ... 4TH FEBRUARY 2018

Tobago and most of the south east Caribbean is still in the doldrums ... not that this is a bad thing ... this is a term given when nothing happens and there is no real pattern to the weather.

Today, for example, there are 2 areas of cloud (and a little rain); one cloudy area near Grenada is moving to the west and another area of cloud and rain that probably gave Tobago some rain last night is moving to the east.

Therefore, it is difficult to make clear day to day predictions with these areas of weather randomly wandering around.

That said, the last week has been mainly sunny and this is likely to continue through the coming week with some rainfall here and there but not being the main feature. A reasonably dense layer of Saharan Dust over most of the Caribbean would support more sunshine than rainfall.

There is a hint that strong trade winds could become more influential towards the end of this week, increasing wave heights.

Travelers to Tobago from Europe and the UK will need to keep an eye of the weather this week which is expected to become extremely cold and there is a risk of disruption to flights and other modes of travel. This risk increases from Tuesday onwards and will last beyond next weekend. For example, UK's Gatwick could be affected by snow streams from the east and UK's Manchester airport could be affected by snow on Tuesday and Thursday (overnight into Friday).

I know that many from Scandanavia and eastern Europe travel to the UK to take their Tobago flight and their weather at home could be even more disruptive during this cold spell.

So travel safely and I hope you all get to Tobago on time.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:37 pm

WEATHER ... 11TH FEBRUARY 2018

Most of the weather last week was fine and, with the increasing influence of the trade winds, any showers would be shorter and the seas a little rougher.

This week heralds a little battle between the fresher trades and the ugly weather that comes from the South American mainland.

Right now, the weather is moving in a westerly direction across the whole of the Caribbean as far south as Barbados while different weather is moving in an easterly direction south of Barbados. Tobago is often close to these 2 different types of weather due to it's proximity to South America.

Although Tobago's weather is still good, cloud and rain is not far away and this is streaming out into the tropical Atlantic, passing to the south of Tobago.

A moderation of the seas this week would indicate less trade influence and the risk of more cloud and possibly rain, however it does not look as if the sea will moderate very much, indicating a good trade influence which is carrying a fair amount of Saharan Dust that will snuff out most of the moisture where the 2 weather types clash.

In a nutshell, it should be fine and there is a small risk of a breakdown in the fresher and sunnier weather.

Back in the UK it remains more cold than mild. There was a little flight disruption last week due to the expectation of snow but it was not as bad as expected. There are decreasing risks of further flight disruption this week but virtually no risks for areas in the south of the UK such as Gatwick.

The rest of northern Europe and Scandinavia are experiencing much more severe winter weather and flight disruption in these areas is much more likely.

Enjoy your holidays

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:23 pm

WEATHER ... 18TH FEBRUARY 2018

This week will continue on the same theme as last week.

There are 2 weathers ... the fresh easterly trade winds to the north and the ugly, cloudy and wet weather to the south, moving in the opposite direction (to the east) and streaming across the Atlantic as far away as Africa at times.

The convergence zone between these 2 weathers is broadly between Barbados' latitude and the north coast of Venezuela.

Trinidad and Tobago are right in this convergence zone and last week's weather is a good example of what happens when these weather zones mix.

During last week the weather from the south dominated on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing cloud and rain to Tobago. From Thursday onwards the weather was a little mixed but very hard to predict in terms of where the rainfall would occur.

Today, Tobago is right on the line between these weathers with more cloud and rain than sunshine.

So for the week ahead it looks like this battle between the good and bad weather will continue until around Wednesday but I am seeing signs that the fresher trades will begin to dominate towards the end of the week bringing more sunshine and occasional showers. An indication that the sea will get rougher towards the end of the week would support this.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:23 pm

TRAVEL ADVISORY ... 22ND FEBRUARY 2018

In recent weeks, weather institutions have been predicting on and monitoring a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event over the north pole. It certainly happened, in fact there were 2 SSW's and we are about to be dealing with the effects of the first one.

A common outcome of these relatively rare events is for the cold pool of air over the pole to be pushed southwards to affect temperate zones around the northern hemisphere although it is often difficult to predict exactly what locations in the temperate zone will be affected.

In this event, High pressure is building in the northern Atlantic towards Scandinavia and is likely to retrogress towards Iceland and Greenland. Retrogression is a term that basically describes a complete reversal of the normal weather systems.

So this means that the weather in the North Atlantic, Asia, Northern Europe and the US and everywhere else in the northern hemisphere is going to be moving in the opposite direction.

As a consequence, typically cold conditions on the eastern side of the US will switch to the west side of the US; warm Atlantic airflows over northern Europe will be replaced by cold airflows from the east, Russia and Siberia.

Cold air is already affecting northern Europe and this will spread to all parts of Europe, including the UK, by Sunday.

Confidence is now high that disruptive and significant snowfall will affect the UK increasingly from Sunday onwards although, at this stage, it is impossible to say exactly where the worst snowfall will occur. The timing of it's occurance and worst intensity looks most likely from next Wednesday onward.

I would expect Gatwick Airport in the UK to have a high risk of flight disruptions and rescheduling and possibly even diversion to other airports due to it's location in the south east of the UK. The diversions could arise because this wintry event is expected to last weeks rather than days.

Manchester Airport may not be that bad, being on the west side of the UK and sheltered to some extent by the Pennines from the easterly weather flow. This airport would likely be the first option for flight diversions from Gatwick and possibly other parts of Europe.

In mainland Europe, the snow risk is marginally lower but the temperatures will be extremely cold (colder than the UK) with multiple 'ice-days'.

So what I am saying is, is that travellers to Tobago could expect to have their holidays lengthened or shortened depending on whether they are in Tobago or their homeland over the next couple of weeks.

There may be some precautions that you can take to ensure you arrive for your flights on time, however, based on the confidence of the latest Weather Models, at some point up until mid-March you could find that the success of your flight to or from Tobago will be out of your hands.

Good news for some ... bad news for others.

Please observe travel news and weather bulletins and maintain contact with your Travel Operator for the latest news.

I will post updates where required.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Feb 25, 2018 10:35 am

WEATHER ... 25TH FEBRUARY 2018

If there is a time for those in Europe and the UK to have a holiday in Tobago then it is this week ... if you can get there.

Widespread travel disruption is expected this week due to heavy snow all week in the UK so it is possible that holidays could be shortened or lengthened this week depending on whether you are in the UK or Tobago.

There are signs that the cold spell could end by next weekend although it could return in the following week.

Therefore those in Tobago now should not complain too much about the general cloudiness and some rain over the last couple of days.

The weather is going in different directions every day and a share of this is from the south with sporadic plumes of moisture moving north from Venezuela.

This week looks similar to previous weeks with the likelihood that the cloudy, rainy weather could stay around today and until tomorrow (Monday) after which the trade weather takes over again bringing more in the way of sunshine for the rest of the week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:01 pm

WEATHER ... 4TH MARCH 2018

The battle between the fresh trades from the east and the wet weather from the south continued last week.

It was predominantly fine weather but heavy rain moved north over Tobago on Thursday from the south. Friday and Saturday improved as the southerly plume weakened but today there is a lot of cloud and light rain around.

This week the weather influence is going to come from the north (which is rare) due to a large and intense depression thousands of miles away in the mid to west Atlantic. An associated cold front currently across the northern Caribbean will progress south bringing fresher weather.

The direct impacts of the front are minimal because it won't reach Tobago but it will introduce a northerly wind-flow and heavier seas, pushing the wet weather back south to where it came from. It will also have exactly the opposite effect of the normal trade winds at this time of year.

This is going to happen over the course of the week so it is a little early to be sure if the Atlantic High will return to it's normal position.

Overall, the weather around the whole of the northern hemisphere is going in the opposite direction, hence the severe European weather I referred to in last week's post. This was caused by what is called a Sudden Stratospheric Warming over the north pole 3 weeks ago, pushing colder weather into the temperate zones and sending the jet stream further south.

The impacts of this will finally reach the Caribbean this week but most places won't notice any difference.

The situation should slowly return to normal over the next 2 or 3 weeks.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:40 pm

WEATHER ... 11TH MARCH 2018

I was a little surprised to see last week's frontal trough from the north entice significant moisture northwards from South America early last week.

This created a 'streamer' of thunderstorms moving from south west to north east over T&T, Grenada, The Grenadines and Barbados, the worst day being last Tuesday. Not everywhere felt the full impact of the Storms but the rainfall was quite widespread.

One thing I did get right was the northerly wind, bringing heavier seas. The northerly direction impacts more sheltered parts of Tobago and I have seen reports of some coastal damage / erosion on the west side (or west facing coasts) of Tobago.

The weather is much calmer now although the seas are still moderate to heavy as can be expected at this time of the year ... strong trade winds from the east have become established and this looks set for the rest of this week.

So ... expect mostly fair weather, fresh breezes (depending where you are) and showers.

Probably not a good week for snorkelers.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:32 pm

WEATHER ... 18TH MARCH 2018

Last week appeared to have very fair weather as I expected but there was a small 'blip' during Saturday as a streamer of heavy rain and thunderstorms moved north eastwards across T&T. These can occur from time to time and are very hard to predict.

This week looks the same. The eastern Caribbean is embedded in dry Saharan Dust which will decrease rainfall. The trade winds are steady and the seas moderate although there are some signs of an increase in sea heights towards the end of this week.

Sunshine and occasional showers and always the small risk of a 'blip'.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:50 pm

WEATHER ... 23RD MARCH 2018

I have places to go and people to upset this weekend, so here is an early forecast ...

Global weather has been all over the place with repeated sudden stratospheric Warmings displacing colder air from the Poles into the Temperate zones.

Apart from the cold weather in the northern hemisphere, weather fronts are passing unusually close or through Tropical zones ... bringing complications.

Right now a weather front is moving through the northern Caribbean, low pressure is to the west of Venezuela and this cold weather front could entice low pressure towards it, creating another plume of rainfall over the south Caribbean.

It looks most likely that the Dutch Antilles would experience the worst of this weather but the chance of more persistent rainfall in more eastern areas of the Caribbean should not be discounted.

Tobago has had a little more shower activity over the last week but overall it appears to have been pleasant.

Next week, Tobago should benefit mostly from the easterly trades with fair weather but there is a small risk of the fresher and drier trades converging with a southerly and moist area of weather ... this often means an increasing risk of rainfall but it depends how influential the weather front to the north becomes over the next few days.

So ... fair weather with the possibility of some increased shower activity on one or two days.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Apr 01, 2018 2:10 pm

WEATHER ... 1ST APRIL 2018

In last week's post I raised some concern that a weather trough over the northern Caribbean could entice low pressure northwards off South America.

It did ... and it produced a rain streamer about 200 miles wide that pumped heavy moisture north eastwards almost as far as Africa on the other side of the Atlantic. This weather really kicked into gear last Wednesday and will have brought almost a week of persistent rain and thunderstorms to some south eastern Caribbean areas by Tuesday this coming week ... so quite a weather event for the worst hit areas.

The rain streamer is now narrowing and is kinking towards the more northern Islands along the windward chain.

It is not over yet because further pulses of rain can be generated but I believe that these will be more scattered than last week ... and next week should bring a gradual improvement.

So there remains a high risk of persistent periods of rain for Tobago at the start of this week and increasing periods of sunshine as the rest of the week progresses.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Apr 08, 2018 10:23 am

WEATHER ... 8TH APRIL 2018

Moisture continued to stream north and eastwards from the South American mainland last week but it was not as organised as the previous week with the rainfall being more scattered and with most of this passing north of Tobago, however Friday did look a little rainy for Tobago.

I have cautious optimism for next week as the influence of the Atlantic High and an increase of dry Saharan Dust look set to make their presence count. This should lead to fresher weather carried by the trade winds and this will also bring a moderate increase in the wave heights along the coasts of Tobago.

Any weakness in the Atlantic High Pressure could allow Low Pressure to fill the gaps and push rainfall northwards over the south eastern Caribbean ... otherwise I expect this week to bring fair weather for Tobago.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Apr 15, 2018 9:57 am

WEATHER ... 15TH APRIL 2018

Another South American plume (or streamer) is pushing north eastwards across the extreme south east Caribbean and there is heavy rain in the Gulf of Mexico and the extreme north west.

Between these weathers the Caribbean is almost cloud free.

Tobago, being in the south east, is under the streamer which is bringing cloud and rain though the worst of the rainfall is falling just to the south of Tobago right now.

So today (Sunday) looks overcast with generally light to moderate rainfall but there could be periods of heavy rain. This could continue into Monday after which I expect fair weather to return.

However the general situation for this week indicates a high risk of rain due to the absence of Saharan Dust in the atmosphere over the south east Caribbean coupled with widespread and heavy thunderstorm activity over the rain forests of South America.

The sea is moderate but will become a little heavier towards the end of the week.

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