LIQUID SUNSHINE

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:11 pm

WEATHER ... 9TH SEPTEMBER 2018

This week is all about Tropical Storm Isaac that is expected to become a Hurricane before arrival in the Caribbean late on Wednesday and overnight into Thursday.

I do not expect Isaac to have any direct impacts on Tobago because the system should pass well north of Barbados.

However, there will be some indirect impacts in terms of heavy seas for a while around the Caribbean coast of Tobago. Hurricanes also increase the general moisture and humidity levels around them for some considerable distance so I expect that rainfall will be an increasing risk, particularly after Isaac has passed the windward Islands and moved into the Caribbean Sea late Thursday and into Friday ... don't be surprised to see a load of moisture to be sucked up off the South American mainland.

I will, if I get the time, post updates regularly on the 2018 Hurricane forum and I will be posting on this forum later tonight with a little more detail because Isaac is a very small and compact system (small and compact = unpredictable!) and I have some reservations about the Weather Models predictions.

Up until late Tuesday and Wednesday, Tobago's weather should be fair with the usual showers but please watch this forum and the 2018 Hurricane form for any updates because it is looking changeable at best and unpredictable as worst for the 2nd half of the coming week.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:16 pm

WEATHER ... 16TH SEPTEMBER 2018

Firstly, am I the first to go on record to congratulate Steve on revamping the myTobago site?

A mighty fine job ... has anyone else noticed?

Anyway ... weather ... it is very unsettled across all of the Caribbean ... I am sure it has not gone unnoticed that half a dozen tropical storms have been around over the last 2 weeks and 'Isaac' brought high levels of moisture and humidity to the Caribbean last week, even though Isaac did not reach hurricane status as the Storm passed through the Windward Islands.

So it is very unsettled with rain clouds forming everywhere, particularly over on the west and centre of the Caribbean where the remnants of isaac are moving towards the Gulf of Mexico.

Another tropical wave should arrive by midweek and I expect the weather to be generally unsettled until then but after this wave passes through then dryer and fairer weather should follow to bring a more positive end to the week.

Please don't forget that, at this time of year, the weather can be very unpredictable.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Steve Wooler » Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:20 pm

Hi Paul

Thanks for the kind words and glad you like it. I am still frantically trying to sort all the updates from Tobago business owners, following our 'soft' release at the end of last week. Various technical tweaks to make - and then a full public announcement at the end of this week or thereabouts. In the meantime, keep up the good work yourself.
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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:14 am

WEATHER ... 23RD SEPTEMBER 2018

Thank you Steve ... I await the highly charged launch of the new myTobago website. It looks very good.

On to other highly charged matters ...

An interesting week lies ahead for Tobago and other islands in the south and eastern Caribbean.

There are currently high moisture levels and increasing sea temperatures. Also, very random outbreaks of rain here and there and you would be lucky to miss a downpour for several hours. This sets the trend for this week, however the weather for the end of the week is uncertain.

Please see the 2018 Hurricane forum where I am posting updates on Tropical Storm Kirk which is expected to arrive in the Caribbean by Friday and the current predictions take Kirk's path between Tobago and Barbados.

Currently, there is considerable speculation about the Storm's strength. It seems unlikely that it will reach hurricane strength and it is possible that the Storm could degenerate and open up into a tropical wave. Either way, I expect Tobago to get a good dose of rain by Friday.

If you want to know more, please refer to the 2018 Hurricane forum for the latest news.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 30, 2018 12:19 pm

WEATHER ... 30TH SEPTEMBER 2018

Last week was very active and unsettled. As I predicted there were several periods of rain for Tobago and this culminated in a downpour on Friday from Tropical Storm Kirk although it should be noted that this storm dished out much higher rainfall totals through the middle of the windward islands. I believe that Barbados took the highest totals based on the satellite images.

The weather calmed down over Tobago more than I expected over the weekend and the week ahead looks ok, apart from another tropical wave that is due to arrive by late Monday early Tuesday this week. A few extra showers or a prolonged period of rain could occur.

Other than that it looks ok but remember that predictions at this time of year can be wrong.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 07, 2018 11:30 am

WEATHER ... 7TH OCTOBER 2018

Next week is going to be very hard to predict with high energy levels in the atmosphere around the whole of the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic, not to mention Tropical Storm (formerly a hurricane) Leslie that has been out in the middle of the Atlantic for weeks, breaking up the normal patterns of the Atlantic High and saharan dust levels.

The main influence of weather is likely to stem from Tropical Depression 14 just east of Belize which is expected to follow a northerly track towards the southern US coast somewhere between Texas and Florida. Despite some hostile factors the weather models are becoming more confident that Hurricane Michael will form in the Gulf before reaching the US coast.

The influence is from the expansive outflow from this storm. Strong wind shear from the west is blowing off the tops of the thunderstorms around the Depression and carrying high levels of moisture across the Caribbean and out into the Atlantic. Yesterday a plume of this affected Trinidad, giving hours of heavy rain.

Tobago can expect to have some periods of wet weather this week as a result of this, in addition a tropical wave is boosting shower activity over Tobago right now and there are 2 more tropical waves that will pass over Tobago later this week.

I am therefore predicting an unsettled week ahead but please bear in mind that bad weather can be localised and some areas could avoid rain altogether while another area quite close by could get a proper dunking, just like yesterday when Trinidad got wet and Tobago had much less rain ... hence the unpredictability of the current weather.

You can find more about Tropical Depression 14 and other storm developments in the 2018 Hurricane Season forum.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:21 pm

WEATHER … 14TH OCTOBER 2018

Energy levels remain high across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, however there remains significant wind shear across the Caribbean and this restricts storm formation, unless we are dealing with an exceptionally energetic development such as Hurricane Michael … I referred to this hurricane as Tropical Depression 14 in last week's Liquid Sunshine and, of course, you can see how this developed during last week in the 2018 Hurricane Forum.

Last week's weather was quite wet for Tobago as I expected and I expect this wet weather to continue this week as 3 tropical waves line up in the tropical Atlantic. The NHC is issuing advisories on a disturbance associated with one of these Waves, giving it a 20% chance of devlopment, but this disturbance is at such a low latitude (almost on the equator) that I cannot see anything other than a rain event. The advisories are predicting that this system could dissipate before it arrives in Guyana ... yes, that is south of Tobago ... imagine that !!


Anyway, let's keep this simple ... the week ahead for Tobago is unsettled with plenty of rain with a small chance of a significant rain event mid-week ... refer to the 2018 Hurricane if you need more information about the general weather patterns in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic and I will post an update to this forum or the Liquid Sunshine Feedback Forum should I expect any severe weather for Tobago.


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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 21, 2018 6:04 pm

WEATHER ... 21ST OCTOBER 2018

This post is, to some extent, a continuation of the 2018 Hurricane forum post I have made in relation to the severe weather in Tobago over the last 4 days.

For those that only follow the hurricane forums I will direct them to this forum for the update.

For those reading this forum, please see the 2018 Hurricane forum if you want to see how things have unfolded.

In last week's Liquid Sunshine I was reporting on a disturbance in the tropical Atlantic that I did not think has much chance of developing into a tropical storm but I sensed that there was a small chance that it could contribute to a rainfall event in Tobago around Wednesday last week.

Unfortunately, this rainfall event prediction turned out to be correct however, even more unfortunately, I did not expect this to continue over the weekend.

3 factors have converged to create a significant rainfall event that has led to widespread flooding across Trinidad & Tobago. 2 of the factors were tropical waves including the disturbance I reported on last week. the 3rd factor is the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) which is a perpetual ring of low pressure around the equator right around the earth. Currently the ITCZ is over Trinidad & Tobago.

I would liken the ITCZ as the difference between having a basic petrol car or a turbo boosted petrol car and the ITCZ simply boosts the energy where it converges with other weather systems. In many cases the ITCZ can create a weather event alone.

A 4th factor in the form of a 3rd tropical wave is approaching the eastern Caribbean and this is also expected to be energized by the ITCZ and this wet weather could continue through to Tuesday or Wednesday this week.

Where the really heavy rain falls is difficult to predict because a heavy downpour or a thunderstorm with ITCZ influence can manifest itself in minutes. Today, for example, Tobago has had a better day by comparison to the previous 4 days but instead Venezuela and Grenada have had today's heaviest rain (so far).

However, even if it only drizzled all day over Tobago this is sustaining the threat to life and property and another period of heavy rain in the next few days could be catastrophic for some areas in Tobago. Even without anymore rain the risk of landslides will remain for several more days until the water has drained from the topsoil.

So ... the week ahead brings a high risk of rainfall until Wednesday and I think that, under the circumstances, it is very difficult to predict beyond that.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 28, 2018 12:56 pm

WEATHER ... 28TH OCTOBER 2018

What a contrast to this time last week.

Dry air has brought fabulous weather conditions to T&T and the whole of the eastern Caribbean. Even most of Venezuela is free of cloud.

Here and there there will be the occasional shower but less than normal.

The bigger picture shows 2 tropical waves running along the equator in the tropical Atlantic but any cloud and rain associated with these waves is being burnt off by the dry air. The dry air won't hang around indefinitely but I expect it will provide the Caribbean with a good respite from the recent rainfall until the middle of this week.

Thereafter, as is the case at this time of year, it is difficult to make predictions. There is still a strong westerly upper airflow over the south and eastern Caribbean and if this tilts a little from the south it can bring rain but the source of this airflow is from the Pacific where it is very dry off the Ecuador coast.

This gives me some confidence that the week ahead could bring fair weather to most of the Caribbean up to the weekend.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Nov 04, 2018 12:15 pm

WEATHER ... 4TH NOVEMBER 2018

There has been intermittent rainfall over Tobago and the eastern Caribbean over the last few days due to a passing tropical wave. The rainfall has been moderate but as the wave has entered the Caribbean sea it has become a little more vigorous, dropping some heavier rain over Puerto Rico and causing some localised problems in that area.

Outflow from the wave is blowing back eastwards, prolonging the rain over the eastern Caribbean and Tobago today.

The outlook is a little unsettled with 3 tropical waves on the way this week and the dry air is north of the tropics and this means that rainfall can break out anywhere with little warning.

There will be good days but expect some prolonged rainfall from time to time.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:29 pm

WEATHER … 11TH NOVEMBER 2018

It seems that an active week lies ahead for the Caribbean with a procession of tropical waves on the way and a small disturbance is just ahead of the first wave (I will post on this later in the 2018 Hurricane forum).

The pressure gradients are also expected to tighten from the middle of the coming week and this will bring heavy surf to some areas, particularly along the southern areas of the Caribbean.

For Tobago the weather could be quite unsettled from time to time as these tropical waves pass from the Atlantic side and into the Caribbean Sea.

Expect sunny weather in between. The first tropical wave should arrive late Monday.


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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:15 pm

WEATHER … 18TH NOVEMBER 2018

Dare I say it, Tobago could have a good week ahead.

Gone is last week's rain, just a few showers around.

This week the worst of the Caribbean's weather is likely from the central Americas and across the northern Caribbean via Cuba, the Bahamas and way out into the Atlantic thanks to low pressure sitting around the Florida area and a very strong jet stream.

The rest of the Caribbean is under dry air and this is sinking south slowly and should eventually cover Tobago this week bringing much less in the way of rain and much more in the way of sunshine.


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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Nov 25, 2018 9:26 pm

WEATHER … 25TH NOVEMBER 2018

As expected, last week was fair and probably the driest for months in Tobago.

Fair weather should continue over most of the southern Caribbean while the northern Caribbean remains very unsettled with the same old jet stream carrying a procession of low pressure centres, boosting the rainfall.

Tobago's only threat is for the heavy rains over South America to plume northwards which is very unpredictable but if these rains stay away then Tobago's weather should be sublime.

One point to note is increasing sea heights this week as the trade winds begin to increase.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:24 pm

WEATHER … 2ND DECEMBER 2018


Yesterday was the 1st official day of the dry season and the day that hopefully consigns the 2018 Hurricane Season to history.

Accordingly, the weather is fine, dry and calm although there are some strong trade winds around that could pick up the seas from time to time.

So, the Caribbean from Puerto Rico level northwards is unsettled with a jet stream of low pressure systems moving from south west to north east, finishing up in northern Europe.

South of Puerto Rico's level is dense dry air, haziness and hot sunshine with barely any rainfall in sight.

Tobago can look forward to a fine week of weather ahead ... I am hopeing it remains that way for the next 6 weeks because my pretty flesh is ready for a good tanning.

Enjoy

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:33 pm

WEATHER … 9TH DECEMBER 2018

The weather across the Caribbean (except for the vary far north) has been and still is fair … in fact it looks sublime.

I am wondering if I should have booked my flight about 7,920 minutes earlier so that I can get a little piece of this fantastic weather and to feel that fat old sun warm my bones … never have I seen such a large swathe of dry air across the Caribbean before although, to be honest, there have been a few rogue showers creeping northwards to Tobago over the last few days from South America.

So, the week ahead looks good with the dry air dominating. I am sure there will be a few showers here and there but that is what to expect in Tobago every day on normal days ... so, yes, there could even be totally rain-free days this week.

Next week's Liquid Sunshine may be delayed a little until I arrive and get settled in and I will post updates as and when I can.

For those reading this and dithering about committing to a warm Christmas holiday ... the time is now and the place is Tobago.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Dec 18, 2018 4:36 am

WEATHER FROM TOBAGO … 18TH DECEMBER 2018

Sorry for the delay but I am here in Tobago now, sorted.

The first thing that struck me how green Tobago is this year, most likely thanks to the heavy rains in late October.

And the weather is beautiful and the sat loops show the dry air persisting, although there was a moderate shower that lasted about 1 hour this afternoon and that is perfectly normal.

The only problem for me is the rough seas even down near Pigeon Pointless. Great for surfers and not for snorkelers. Plus, it is high tide around early afternoon so not much beach to have.

But cannot complain about this weather. Update next Sunday.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:31 am

WEATHER FROM TOBAGO … 23RD DECEMBER 2018

Since arrival I have been watching the local forecasts and everyday over the last week there have been predictions of thunderstorms and heavy seas of 2 metres.

It is hard to make predictions so far ahead which is why I tend to work on the general situation, within which there can be anomalies.

So, the general situation is reasonably clear as dry air is being pumped across the tropical Atlantic bringing very dry conditions in the Caribbean and this trend is likely to continue for this week too.

Last week there was one notable shower for about 1 hour and some light overnight rain here and there. The temperature is steady in the upper 20's but the dry atmosphere is making the sun really hot and today, for example, even I had to find shelter from the blistering heat of the sun. It does cool down nicely in the evenings though.

This is likely to continue and with calm to moderate seas for the next week but there is always the chance of showers, mostly at night or early in the morning.

I have also noticed how green and lush Tobago is looking this year thanks to that heavy rainfall back in late October.

It's the best weather I have experienced, even better than when I said it last year.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Dec 24, 2018 8:10 pm

WEATHER UPDATE FROM TOBAGO … 24TH DECEMBER 2018

Following on from the weekend's Liquid Sunshine update, the local forecasts are predicting very heavy seas for next weekend of 3 metres!!

I have lost faith in these forecasters, particularly because they still have the low and high tides the wrong way round, but I thought I would do some digging and look at a reputable Weather Model and a Surfing Model.

These 2 Models back this up but I would not yet rate this as more than 50% yet because these exceptional sea conditions are not due until next weekend.

The weather model is predicting a breakdown in the bad weather north of the Caribbean, pushing the High pressure south, tightening the pressure gradients and bringing strong winds down from the north over most of the Caribbean at first and then turning the wind source to the east with widespread wind speeds in excess of 50 mph.

The Surfing Model supports this and is predicting wave heights in excess of 14 feet (over 4 metres) over Saturday and Sunday next weekend. These wave heights are expected to affect most of the Caribbean, not just Tobago and, although I am being a little cynical right now, I am taking notice.

This can happen and I have seen significant waves crashing on Tobago's shores at this time of year before ... but this is an early prediction which may not happen and, if it did happen, it may not be as severe as the Models are predicting.

Of course I will be watching this, I don't want it to happen and spoil my snorkelling so I will post an update later this week to see how things are developing.


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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:04 am

WEATHER UPDATE FROM TOBAGO … 27TH DECEMBER 2018 … Thw Waves?

Hmmm … I don't see the wave event happening.

The reliable Models are showing the heavy seas away off to the north east of Tobago so I am not expecting much more than a moderate increase in the waves heights over the weekend.

Right now, the local forecasters are saying the wave heights are 1.9 metres and will rise to 2.5m at the weekend and stay at that level through most of next week.

It is very calm right now and it has been getting calmer each day with the visability improving underwater.

The weather is superb.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:07 pm

WEATHER FROM TOBAGO … 30TH DECEMBER 2018

The sea has finally got going but I would say sea heights of 1.5m rather then the 3m predicted … depending where you are (i.e.; Grafton Beach) you may get between 2 and 3m.

The weather continues to exceed anyone's best expectations, there was a little rain yesterday morning and a few showers about but even I have had to take a break indoors from the searing heat of the sun in order to protect my pretty flesh.

The whole of the Caribbean is now under the very dense Saharan dust layer and this restricts the formation of rain clouds and this means that generally fair weather is here to stay for the foreseeable future. At times over the last week there has not been a cloud in sight all day

As for the sea conditions, the waves are moderate and only spoiling underwater visability and I expect this to become calmer from Tuesday onwards

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