Page 32 of 32

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun May 26, 2019 10:26 am
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER … 26TH MAY 2019
HEAVY SHOWERS WHERE AND WHEN THEY HAPPEN


The weather is very mobile this week.

Low pressure is positioned over Columbia and is responsible for the very thundery weather across the Caribbean Sea and partially responsible for feeding the high levels of warm energy moving northwards and into the central US. The central US has been having significantly extreme weather conditions over the last week or so as a result of this warm Caribbean influence.

The Columbia Low is also responsible for sending heavy showers across the southern Caribbean and to the east. Last week brought several heavy rain periods to Tobago.

This week there are 2 Tropical Waves on the way and I believe these Tropical Waves could enhance the rainfall over Tobago with the first one arriving tomorrow / Tuesday and the 2nd Wave arriving late in the week.

The upper airflow is moving from the south west to east and this could have a shearing effect on the Tropical Waves, however when one energy form meets another it can increase the rain intensity in some areas.

Next Saturday, 1st June, is the official start of this year's Wet / Hurricane season and we have already seen a short-lived Tropical Storm Andrea off the eastern coast of Florida and near Bermuda.

I have already started the 2019 Hurricane Forum so check that forum out for the latest information and speculation.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Jun 02, 2019 7:37 am
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER … 2ND JUNE 2019
MORE RAIN THIS WEEK


2 Tropical Waves are on the way and the upper airflow is carrying a lot of moisture north east from South America's rain forests.

Although the rainfall is sporadic, it is quite heavy where it falls and the Tropical Waves will enhance moisture levels across most of the south and east Caribbean.

There will be sunshine but rainfall, when it happens, will be prolonged and heavy.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:52 am
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER … 9TH JUNE 2019
4 TROPICAL WAVES THIS WEEK


The rain that is currently affecting Tobago and most of the eastern Caribbean is being enhanced by a tropical wave that has now passed Tobago. This wave is now over the Dutch Antilles but most of the wave is over Venezuela where the heaviest rains have fallen.

3 more tropical waves are queuing along the tropical Atlantic all the way back to Africa and these will bring further periods of rain this week.

In addition, higher pressure to the north of the Caribbean is squeezing the pressure gradients and the consequence of this is strong trade winds that will build moderate to heavy seas in most areas across the southern Caribbean.

It looks like a rather rainy week ahead but there will be sunshine too … if you are a visitor you will need to take each day as it comes to decide what to do and where to go.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:15 am
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER … 16TH JUNE 2019
MORE RAIN THIS WEEK


The last of last weeks predicted tropical waves has just passed Tobago and has introduced high levels of moisture sandwiched between it and the next tropical wave.

Right now there is heavy rain over a broad area of the south east Caribbean and 3 more tropical waves on the way for this week.

Very much the same as last week.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Jun 23, 2019 7:34 am
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER … 23RD JUNE 2019
LESS RAIN THIS WEEK


That does not mean there will be no rain !!

As I type, another tropical wave has just passed Tobago sucking up and enhancing moisture from the rainforests of South America.

Last week was a very wet week with long periods of heavy rain particularly during the first half of the week.

The week ahead looks better but there is one more tropical wave on the way, plus another one about to leave the coast of Africa.

The highest risk of rain is today and midweek when the next tropical wave is expected to arrive. High pressure is stubbornly anchoring itself over and to the south of Bermuda and the wind could pick up from time to time bringing choppy seas in the Caribbean Sea but the worst of this is not likely to reach Tobago.

I expect the seas around the coast to become steadily stronger towards the end of the week.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:20 pm
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER … 1ST JULY 2019
ARE THE TRADES GOING TO WIN?


Sorry about the late update … I have had a rather bad bug or perhaps I have self inflicted injuries from too much of the sun that we in the UK do not get enough of.

Last week, my prediction for rain in midweek was about 48 hours wrong, it eventually arrived on Friday and today (Monday) the remnants of the tropical wave is enhanced moisture and plenty of mostly showery rain.

I note that the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ for newbies) is beginning to edge north (where it should be) and that most of the rainfall can be blamed on the ITCZ. This is a constant low pressure area that spans the equator around our world and is often associated with the 'doldrums' where the air does not move and yet the weather conditions are unpredictable.

Anywhere within 10 degrees of the ITCZ would experience calm and the occasional violent thunderstorm.

Tropical Waves often run along the northern side of the ITCZ, boosting moisture in the atmosphere and bringing rains, sometimes developing into Tropical Storms, though normally any Storms often spin off to the north before they reach Tobago.

Right now there is a quite tight pressure gradient between the (ITCZ) low pressure and High pressure over near Bermuda. This brings strong easterly winds AKA trade winds and this can make the seas quite high and choppy from time to time.

This week sees a battle between these entities so there is a good chance of heavy waves but this chance reduces as we near the end of this week.

So … I am expecting the current rains to decrease over Tobago towards mid-week and for calmer conditions but with the constant risk of a heavy shower and possible thunderstorms. These will be localised so very hit and miss.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:57 pm
by Paul Tallet
SORRY

I put my post out but it disappeared … don't know if you can see it but I will do it again tomorrow if I have the time.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:31 am
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER … 8TH JULY 2019
4 TROPICAL WAVES ON THE WAY THIS WEEK


I am hoping this works!

This week is looking rather lively with 4 tropical waves on the march across the tropics.

These will bring rain and squally conditions but I am seeing hints of a small depression forming along one of the waves towards the end of the week which could bring a more organised period of wet weather.

Depending on the exact timing much of the rainfall could fall over night and this would increase the chances of sunshine during daylight.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Jul 14, 2019 11:26 pm
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER … 15TH JULY 2019
BECOMING MORE SETTLED THIS WEEK


The depression that I have been referring to over the last week is now bringing rains to Tobago and much of the south eastern Caribbean.

This will pass within 48 hours.

Another tropical wave has left Africa. It looks big but too early to assess.

So this week for Tobago … mostly rain and showers through Monday and Tuesday and then it looks like the sunshine will take over for the rest of the week … as long as no rain streamers shoot up from the south.

Regards