LIQUID SUNSHINE

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Paul Tallet
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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 06, 2019 11:37 am

WEATHER UPDATE … 6TH OCTOBER 2019

The weather has calmed down significantly since the passing of Karen and dry Saharan air is now filling the Atlantic Ocean and this will limit the potency of any tropical waves coming from the east.

However, there is one tropical wave on which a small depression is forming about 1,000 miles to the east of Tobago. This is not expected to develop but it could bring some rain to Tobago on Monday and Tuesday. The cloud tops of the thunderstorms are also being sheared away and the dry air is tucked in behind the wave.

The only unpredictable factor, as always, is wet weather moving north from the rain forests of Venezuela. But this is more common as a dry season spoiler.

So, apart from the very beginning of the week, it should be fair and sunny with just the usual home-made showers.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 13, 2019 11:24 am

WEATHER … 13TH OCTOBER 2019

Tobago's soaking last week was generally blamed on the ITCZ but the real culprit was a disturbance running along a vigorous tropical wave that has moved on to the western Caribbean. This is proving to be an even more potent threat to Honduras and Belize this week. The reason why this persisted over Tobago for so long was because strong shear was attacking the system from the opposite (west) direction. For the rain clouds this is like wading through thick mud.

As tropical waves make their progress they often create a kink in the ITCZ and of course this system has pulled the ITCZ northwards and therefore I think the ITCZ is more relevant for the week ahead than it was last week.

ITCZ = Unpredictable. It could be calm or there could be raging thunderstorms and in these situations for example, Tobago could be basking in sunshine while 4 inches of rain could be falling over Trinidad. Add another 2 tropical waves on their way and the weather could become very complicated in mid-week. The 2nd of these 2 waves has formed a depression and, as already explained, has kinked the ITCZ.

So, the week ahead is very difficult to predict but I am expecting Wednesday will bring the highest risks of persistent rain as the 2nd tropical wave moves through. However the 1st tropical wave could bring some rain overnight tonight and into Monday.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:54 am

WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD … 20TH OCTOBER 2019
LOOKING NORMAL


Apart from 2 moderate tropical waves in the Atlantic the week ahead looks fairly normal.

So there should be sunshine and trade showers but a risk that there could be an increase in the rainfall around midweek.

It is also quiet on the storm front but I would never say this is the end of the hurricane season before 30th November.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:59 am

WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD … 27TH OCTOBER 2019

This looks like a repeat of last week's forecast with 2 tropical waves in the Atlantic that could increase rain potential in mid-week.

I have seen reports of tornadoes in Trinidad from last week as a result of the 2nd tropical wave and this emphasises the risks that tropical waves can bring extreme weather conditions anywhere along their axis.

Otherwise, the weather is looking good with trade showers but, at this time of year, the risks of rain from the south American continent get a little higher and are very unpredictable.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:29 am

WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD … 3RD NOVEMBER 2019

Last week was unsettled to say the least … and unpredictable, but I from communications I have had with Paul Makin and news reports elsewhere suggest that the sea conditions have been of most concern … and this is set to continue.

In my last post I described November as Tobago's bogey month, either by way from rainfall or sea conditions or both … it is often a month of unpredictable weather events.

So … for the week ahead …

There are 2 tropical waves. The first one is knocking on Tobago's door. This wave has little rain ahead of it but it will introduce higher levels of moisture behind it. I expect this wave to run through on Monday.

The second wave is about 24 - 36 hours behind the first wave and this will bring the ITCZ a little further north and a change in the wind direction.

Currently, the winds are coming from the north and this is part of the reason why the seas have been high, attacking the Caribbean side of Tobago. After the second wave the winds will still be strong but as they will be coming from the west I would expect the high seas around the Caribbean coast to moderate somewhat due to the fact that they are more sheltered from this wind direction, transferring any impacts around to the Atlantic side.

Depending on how much the 2nd wave pulls the ITCZ to the north, the seas could get much calmer but this would bring the potential for more rain because there is a stream of precipitation behind the 2nd wave.

It is difficult to call but, generally, I see only a moderation of the wind impacts and the potential for rainfall will remain quite high for the week, although this can be localised with some areas of the east Caribbean getting more rain than others.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:51 am

WEATHER FOR THE WEEIK AHEAD … 10TH NOVEMBER 2019

I am seeing an improvement in Tobago's weather this week, but not without one or two potential disruptions.

There is very strong westerly shear over the south east Caribbean and this is limiting the intensity of the rains but not completely snuffing the rain clouds out.

One tropical wave should reach Tobago by late Monday … after this it is looking a little calmer with moderating seas. There is a large mass of rainclouds in the mid-tropical Atlantic but this is very disorganised and not associated with any weather system and unlikely to bring anything significant to Tobago.

So the week ahead brings the highest risk of rain on Monday / Tuesday and, after this, the rain risk decreases or, at least, there should be more sunshine.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Nov 17, 2019 6:11 pm

WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD … 17TH NOVEMBER 2019

It's looking ok … quite calm but I think the seas may pick up towards the end of the week.

In last week's post I referred to a mass of cloud in the mid-tropical Atlantic and it is still there, moving very slowly towards the Caribbean. It won't reach the Caribbean but the NHC are issuing advisories, giving a 40% chance of development by 5 days … it will turn north and, if it does develop, it will not threaten land.

The wet season is ending over the next 2 weeks and I see no more tropical waves at this time.

I am starting to see some strong echoes on the satellite images over Guyana and Venezuela and weather from this direction can spoil the weather over Tobago during the dry season … and it is very unpredictable so this is the future direction to watch over the next few months for rain lovers.

Of course the weather should improve before I arrive in Tobago in about 857 hours time !

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Nov 24, 2019 3:57 pm

WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD … 24TH NOVEMBER 2019

Tobago is currently sitting in the path of some very moist trade winds that are carrying some substantial showers here and there (Grenada is taking a deluge as I type).

Set against this are westerly wind shear in the upper atmosphere and pressure of about 1,018 millibars which would both reduce the rainfall and this is why the rainfall is very patchy and localised … making it very difficult to predict where it will fall.

I have also seen some storms bubble up over Guyana and move north west out into the Atlantic … I don't like to see this because if the rainfall over the south American rainforests get really active it can be a spoiler for Trinidad and Tobago's alleged dry season. If it stays moderate then it normally brings overnight rain to Tobago … I will be watching this.

Otherwise I should conclude that it is relatively calm, some light showers and the odd heavy shower and a small risk of a washout on any day this week.

I have posted information about Tropical Storm Sebastien on the 2019 Hurricane forum … those in the Faroe Islands and the UK will find this to be of interest.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:54 am

WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD … 1ST DECEMBER 2019

Last week was quite wet, particularly on Friday and Saturday (yesterday) and this was the result of rain streamers from South America. Not that I am suggesting there was a lot of rain over the South American rainforests.

As I stated in last week's Liquid Sunshine post, there are heavy levels of moisture in the south east Caribbean, and plumes of air moving off the mainland have been picking up the moisture and converting it to rain, and it can be very heavy and persistent at times.

So this risk still applies, especially with low pressure stationary over Columbia which pushes air over the rainforests towards the north and east.

Another thing I have noticed in recent months is the Sea Surface temperature (SST). Around the Caribbean it is generally 30 - 32 degrees centigrade and more locally, around Tobago, it is 32 to 34 … this is high, so high that I am questioning the source of this information because the norm is 28 - 30 degrees.

So I wonder if this could be a contributing factor in favour of rain? I will check it out when I go there because I am a wimp with cold water so I will be able to tell.

So, for the week ahead, relatively calm and sunny but an ongoing risk of long period rain from time to time.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:03 pm

WEATHER UPDATE … 8TH DECEMBER 2019

The weather is now behaving like it should at this time of year.

The trades are moderate (about 25 mph) and you won't notice this except in exposed areas of Tobago.

Scattered showers are carried by the trades and these can be enhanced by Tobago's geography (i.e.; most of the rain falls over the higher levels of the rainforest).

The trades also bringing the sea swells up to moderate levels.

A significant factor is the Saharan Air layer (SAL) that now extends from Africa all the way to the Caribbean. Without this there would be more rain.

This week is going to be like this but the winds and sea conditions will decrease towards the end of the week.

The only spoiler, as I keep saying, is any rainfall coming from the South American mainland and with the perpetual Low pressure that sits over Columbia that can occasionally push very wet weather northwards over the southern and eastern Caribbean. This is very resistant to the SAL.

Other than that, the weather for the week ahead looks to be very fair.

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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:08 am

WEATHER UPDATE … 15TH DECEMBER 2019

The main feature of this week's weather is the regression of the Saharan Air Layer … that means more frequent showers and some longer periods of rain. Most of this falls overnight.

Another factor is the wind that will be picking up mid-week and raising the sea heights.

So … this week I expect the beginning of the week to be showery. In the middle of the week the winds will peak and the sea heights could be around 10 feet in some beaches … this is good for wind surfers over Buccoo and the surfers at Mount Irvine.

Towards the end of the week I am expecting the showers to pep up again.

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