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Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Oct 06, 2019 11:37 am
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER UPDATE … 6TH OCTOBER 2019

The weather has calmed down significantly since the passing of Karen and dry Saharan air is now filling the Atlantic Ocean and this will limit the potency of any tropical waves coming from the east.

However, there is one tropical wave on which a small depression is forming about 1,000 miles to the east of Tobago. This is not expected to develop but it could bring some rain to Tobago on Monday and Tuesday. The cloud tops of the thunderstorms are also being sheared away and the dry air is tucked in behind the wave.

The only unpredictable factor, as always, is wet weather moving north from the rain forests of Venezuela. But this is more common as a dry season spoiler.

So, apart from the very beginning of the week, it should be fair and sunny with just the usual home-made showers.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Oct 13, 2019 11:24 am
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER … 13TH OCTOBER 2019

Tobago's soaking last week was generally blamed on the ITCZ but the real culprit was a disturbance running along a vigorous tropical wave that has moved on to the western Caribbean. This is proving to be an even more potent threat to Honduras and Belize this week. The reason why this persisted over Tobago for so long was because strong shear was attacking the system from the opposite (west) direction. For the rain clouds this is like wading through thick mud.

As tropical waves make their progress they often create a kink in the ITCZ and of course this system has pulled the ITCZ northwards and therefore I think the ITCZ is more relevant for the week ahead than it was last week.

ITCZ = Unpredictable. It could be calm or there could be raging thunderstorms and in these situations for example, Tobago could be basking in sunshine while 4 inches of rain could be falling over Trinidad. Add another 2 tropical waves on their way and the weather could become very complicated in mid-week. The 2nd of these 2 waves has formed a depression and, as already explained, has kinked the ITCZ.

So, the week ahead is very difficult to predict but I am expecting Wednesday will bring the highest risks of persistent rain as the 2nd tropical wave moves through. However the 1st tropical wave could bring some rain overnight tonight and into Monday.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:54 am
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD … 20TH OCTOBER 2019
LOOKING NORMAL


Apart from 2 moderate tropical waves in the Atlantic the week ahead looks fairly normal.

So there should be sunshine and trade showers but a risk that there could be an increase in the rainfall around midweek.

It is also quiet on the storm front but I would never say this is the end of the hurricane season before 30th November.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:59 am
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD … 27TH OCTOBER 2019

This looks like a repeat of last week's forecast with 2 tropical waves in the Atlantic that could increase rain potential in mid-week.

I have seen reports of tornadoes in Trinidad from last week as a result of the 2nd tropical wave and this emphasises the risks that tropical waves can bring extreme weather conditions anywhere along their axis.

Otherwise, the weather is looking good with trade showers but, at this time of year, the risks of rain from the south American continent get a little higher and are very unpredictable.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:29 am
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD … 3RD NOVEMBER 2019

Last week was unsettled to say the least … and unpredictable, but I from communications I have had with Paul Makin and news reports elsewhere suggest that the sea conditions have been of most concern … and this is set to continue.

In my last post I described November as Tobago's bogey month, either by way from rainfall or sea conditions or both … it is often a month of unpredictable weather events.

So … for the week ahead …

There are 2 tropical waves. The first one is knocking on Tobago's door. This wave has little rain ahead of it but it will introduce higher levels of moisture behind it. I expect this wave to run through on Monday.

The second wave is about 24 - 36 hours behind the first wave and this will bring the ITCZ a little further north and a change in the wind direction.

Currently, the winds are coming from the north and this is part of the reason why the seas have been high, attacking the Caribbean side of Tobago. After the second wave the winds will still be strong but as they will be coming from the west I would expect the high seas around the Caribbean coast to moderate somewhat due to the fact that they are more sheltered from this wind direction, transferring any impacts around to the Atlantic side.

Depending on how much the 2nd wave pulls the ITCZ to the north, the seas could get much calmer but this would bring the potential for more rain because there is a stream of precipitation behind the 2nd wave.

It is difficult to call but, generally, I see only a moderation of the wind impacts and the potential for rainfall will remain quite high for the week, although this can be localised with some areas of the east Caribbean getting more rain than others.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:51 am
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER FOR THE WEEIK AHEAD … 10TH NOVEMBER 2019

I am seeing an improvement in Tobago's weather this week, but not without one or two potential disruptions.

There is very strong westerly shear over the south east Caribbean and this is limiting the intensity of the rains but not completely snuffing the rain clouds out.

One tropical wave should reach Tobago by late Monday … after this it is looking a little calmer with moderating seas. There is a large mass of rainclouds in the mid-tropical Atlantic but this is very disorganised and not associated with any weather system and unlikely to bring anything significant to Tobago.

So the week ahead brings the highest risk of rain on Monday / Tuesday and, after this, the rain risk decreases or, at least, there should be more sunshine.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2019 6:11 pm
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD … 17TH NOVEMBER 2019

It's looking ok … quite calm but I think the seas may pick up towards the end of the week.

In last week's post I referred to a mass of cloud in the mid-tropical Atlantic and it is still there, moving very slowly towards the Caribbean. It won't reach the Caribbean but the NHC are issuing advisories, giving a 40% chance of development by 5 days … it will turn north and, if it does develop, it will not threaten land.

The wet season is ending over the next 2 weeks and I see no more tropical waves at this time.

I am starting to see some strong echoes on the satellite images over Guyana and Venezuela and weather from this direction can spoil the weather over Tobago during the dry season … and it is very unpredictable so this is the future direction to watch over the next few months for rain lovers.

Of course the weather should improve before I arrive in Tobago in about 857 hours time !

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Nov 24, 2019 3:57 pm
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD … 24TH NOVEMBER 2019

Tobago is currently sitting in the path of some very moist trade winds that are carrying some substantial showers here and there (Grenada is taking a deluge as I type).

Set against this are westerly wind shear in the upper atmosphere and pressure of about 1,018 millibars which would both reduce the rainfall and this is why the rainfall is very patchy and localised … making it very difficult to predict where it will fall.

I have also seen some storms bubble up over Guyana and move north west out into the Atlantic … I don't like to see this because if the rainfall over the south American rainforests get really active it can be a spoiler for Trinidad and Tobago's alleged dry season. If it stays moderate then it normally brings overnight rain to Tobago … I will be watching this.

Otherwise I should conclude that it is relatively calm, some light showers and the odd heavy shower and a small risk of a washout on any day this week.

I have posted information about Tropical Storm Sebastien on the 2019 Hurricane forum … those in the Faroe Islands and the UK will find this to be of interest.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:54 am
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD … 1ST DECEMBER 2019

Last week was quite wet, particularly on Friday and Saturday (yesterday) and this was the result of rain streamers from South America. Not that I am suggesting there was a lot of rain over the South American rainforests.

As I stated in last week's Liquid Sunshine post, there are heavy levels of moisture in the south east Caribbean, and plumes of air moving off the mainland have been picking up the moisture and converting it to rain, and it can be very heavy and persistent at times.

So this risk still applies, especially with low pressure stationary over Columbia which pushes air over the rainforests towards the north and east.

Another thing I have noticed in recent months is the Sea Surface temperature (SST). Around the Caribbean it is generally 30 - 32 degrees centigrade and more locally, around Tobago, it is 32 to 34 … this is high, so high that I am questioning the source of this information because the norm is 28 - 30 degrees.

So I wonder if this could be a contributing factor in favour of rain? I will check it out when I go there because I am a wimp with cold water so I will be able to tell.

So, for the week ahead, relatively calm and sunny but an ongoing risk of long period rain from time to time.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:03 pm
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER UPDATE … 8TH DECEMBER 2019

The weather is now behaving like it should at this time of year.

The trades are moderate (about 25 mph) and you won't notice this except in exposed areas of Tobago.

Scattered showers are carried by the trades and these can be enhanced by Tobago's geography (i.e.; most of the rain falls over the higher levels of the rainforest).

The trades also bringing the sea swells up to moderate levels.

A significant factor is the Saharan Air layer (SAL) that now extends from Africa all the way to the Caribbean. Without this there would be more rain.

This week is going to be like this but the winds and sea conditions will decrease towards the end of the week.

The only spoiler, as I keep saying, is any rainfall coming from the South American mainland and with the perpetual Low pressure that sits over Columbia that can occasionally push very wet weather northwards over the southern and eastern Caribbean. This is very resistant to the SAL.

Other than that, the weather for the week ahead looks to be very fair.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:08 am
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER UPDATE … 15TH DECEMBER 2019

The main feature of this week's weather is the regression of the Saharan Air Layer … that means more frequent showers and some longer periods of rain. Most of this falls overnight.

Another factor is the wind that will be picking up mid-week and raising the sea heights.

So … this week I expect the beginning of the week to be showery. In the middle of the week the winds will peak and the sea heights could be around 10 feet in some beaches … this is good for wind surfers over Buccoo and the surfers at Mount Irvine.

Towards the end of the week I am expecting the showers to pep up again.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Tue Dec 24, 2019 10:36 pm
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER FROM CASTARA, TOBAGO … 24TH DECEMBER 2019
IT'S GOOD


Sorry for the delay for this week's update, I was travelling to London Gatwick on Sunday and flying to Tobago on the Monday and by the time I arrived in Castara I was knackered and then … oh boy … the shopping was bonkers, anyway …

The weather is super, quite hot and the sea is as warm as I thought it was … some cloud but hardly any rain.

Looking at the weather and sea state models it looks to be staying this way for up to 10 days but I would take anything of more than 3 days with a pinch of salt … but the sea state predictions are in favour of increasingly calm conditions over the next 10 days which is perfect for snorkellers and quite unusual for this time of year.

I see the clouds are moving east to west which tells me, without having to look at sat-loops, that the trades are in full flow and this means that it will be breezy on the Atlantic side and more sheltered on the Caribbean side. It is quite humid and I would expect it to be a little fresher at this time of year.

As far as the weather goes, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is over this area of the Caribbean and the Atlantic High is in the right position to keep pumping the SAL across the Atlantic for the foreseeable future.

So here is to warmth, humidity, a little cloud, some showers and mostly sun and moon … enjoy.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:13 am
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER FROM CASTARA, TOBAGO
29TH DECEMBER 2019
GOOD OVERALL BUT WATCH OUT FOR THOSE SOUTH AMERICAN STREAMERS


My observations from the first week are …

1. Hotter then usual
2. The sea is calmer than usual but naughty
3. Very little rain, but a lot generally

The heat and humidity reminds me of when I once visited Tobago in June and July. I am not sure if I have been acclimatizing but the humidity has decreased over the first week. One reason for this heat could be the sea temperature which is very high. At night, when the air temperature cools (only slightly) the sea feels like a luke-warm bath.

The sea has been quite calm but my 'naughty' reference is to sudden surges of moderate waves and these can catch you out as I discovered very unceremoniously while disembarking from a boat trip last week. I have been looking at the Caribbean wave period models and this calmness looks likely to continue until next Friday, but I would take anything over 3 days with a pinch of salt.

The weather, the rain … The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is strong but it's resistance to plumes (streamers) of rain moving off the near continent is poor. Please be assured that there has been plenty of rain around the south east Caribbean over the last week but Tobago has not been affected due the the fact that these streamers have moved in a north easterly direction either side of Tobago … I would say that Grenada has had the worst of it.

Because of the way these streamers move diagonally, you could be under rain all day while 50 miles away it is sunny all day.

So … the calm and tranquility of last week will continue, but there is always the risk of a day of rain and this is very unpredictable.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:14 pm
by Paul Tallet
WAVE UPDATE … 30TH DECEMBER 2019

The sea is calm, but calm with large swells often arriving in three's and four's.

The local forecast suggests 1.9 metres … in Castara I would say 3 metres.

The outlook is for this to moderate and become calm but I won't believe that until it happens.

I can only put these swells down to a frontal trough across the middle of the Caribbean to the north bringing swells down from the stormy mid-latitudes.

It's a wonderful ambiance to sleep through though !

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:17 pm
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER FROM CASTARA, TOBAGO
5TH JANUARY 2020
BEAUTIFUL


Tobago is deeply embedded in the SAL and this restricts rainfall.

The last week has been mostly sunny with some partial cloud and occasional light rainfall overnight … perfect.

The temperatures have cooled a little with a fresher breeze but today it feels a little more humid.

My focus has been on the sea state … it became unexpectedly heavy at the beginning of the week but the forecast models seem to have got it right with increasing calmness … today it is like a millpond. However there are signs of an increase in sea height towards the end of this week so I would recommend that snorkellers get focused on their activities by Wednesday. If the sea heights rise then there will be a reduction in visibility.

So here's looking forward to another good week.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:47 am
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER UPDATE FROM CASTARA … 12TH JANUARY 2020
NORMAL


A distinct change in the weather began on Wednesday last week. Tightening pressure gradients brought very strong trade winds and, as expected, higher seas. Plus more showers.

This is normal at this time of year. But depending on what weather forecasts you read here, the high seas could end on Tuesday, Wednesday or whenever.

I have to go with my senses because looking at the local forecasts is driving me to despair.

Next week should see a gradual calming of the sea heights and I expect the weather to continue as it is, with lots of sunshine but with frequent showers … quite normal.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:48 pm
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER FROM CASTARA … 19TH JANUARY 2020

As predicted, last week saw an increase in shower activity and more persistent periods of rain over this weekend.

This is due to 2 contrasting weather features, yes … those dastardly streamers off the rain forests of the South American mainland to which the SAL offers little resistance. The other contributor is a weather front that has sunk south as far as Antigua, tightening the pressure gradients and increasing the trade wind speeds. This also kicks the sea up.

I expect this situation to continue unchanged until mid-week when the sinking weather trough should move away, allowing more calm but, the rain streamers are more difficult to predict and can affect more localised areas … but the offending depression over Columbia should recede and reduce the risk of persistent rain this week.

My last one from Tobago :(

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Jan 26, 2020 12:38 pm
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER UPDATE … 26TH JANUARY 2020

Reflecting on the daily weather over the last 4 weeks, yet again, I have to say that the weather on the ground is not reflected in the satellite images and this has always caused me worry because I can never be sure of what I am seeing when I view the weather from home.

Another factor is that Trinidad & Tobago's weather is unique and not as predictable as the weather around the rest of the Caribbean. The reasons for the uniqueness is that Tobago's weather is often influenced by what is going on in the rain forests of South America, with Guyana and Venezuela being the closest. The rain forests here set off their own weather systems and rain streamers can shoot northwards to north-eastwards over T&T and, to a lesser extent, the Dutch Antilles and Grenada.

This can be enhanced by an almost perpetual low pressure system that sits over Columbia (which is why Columbia is often windy with rough seas) for most of the year which pumps up the moisture from the rain forests towards the south east Caribbean.

So I have to emphasise that my weather updates are based on the general situation. Not even the T&T Meteorological site can predict each day's localised weather accurately, although they were more accurate about sea conditions but not the mountainous seas on the day I left.

This week … looks like a predominantly cloudy period to start the week and this could bring rain at times. Midweek should be better with less showers but the cloudy conditions could return at the end of the week. Yes, this is the rain streamers that I have mentioned earlier.

To demonstrate, all you have to do is look up at the clouds and, if you see different layers of cloud moving in completely different directions then you are looking at the trades going one way (normally west) and the streamers going another way (north west, north, north east or east). When you see this there is a good chance of rain.

The sea is moderate but there are signs that it could get a little heavier towards the end of the week.

Enjoy …

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Feb 02, 2020 11:00 am
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER UPDATE … 2ND FEBRUARY 2020
SUNNY, HAZY, FEW SHOWERS


This week is all about the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and this looks like it will influence Tobago's weather for most, if not all, of next week.

So expect more in the way of sunshine but it could get a little cloudy from time to time.

The sea is looking moderate too.

Overall it's looking like a good week to spend on holiday in Tobago.

Regards

Re: LIQUID SUNSHINE

Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:52 am
by Paul Tallet
WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD … 9TH FEBRUARY 2020

The weather continues to be fair. There will be trade showers although these will be limited by the SAL, however I think the week ahead may be more cloudy than usual and the seas will be moderate and occasionally strong.

My only concern is rain streamers coming off the South American mainland … currently these are some distance away from Tobago but the SAL is not as effective in limiting this should it occur.

Regards