LIQUID SUNSHINE

[Paul Tallet]

LATE WEEKLY UPDATE ... 19TH APRIL 2009 ... 2230 BST

Hmm ... spent the thick end of the weekend trying to unlock this so I could do an update and, finally, discovered that my updating to Google Chrome mean't I had to sign in again ... duh !!

Never mind ...

Right, it is much the same as last week ... I was giving bad signals about rain moving up from the south due to Low Pressure over South America ... it was not that bad actually until Friday/Saturday and it's a bit wet now.

The same theme continues ... high risk of rain but hit and miss ... I can say that the seas will get calm down this week before they pick up again for the weekend.

I am sure there will be plenty of sunshine too.

I am getting bored to be honest ... waiting for the 2009 Hurricane Season to start ... not long to go.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 25TH APRIL 2009 ... 1130 BST


Dare I say the weather is going to be normal this week?

It certainly does ... the Atlantic High has settled into it's normal place and moderate to strong trades are sweeping across most of the Caribbean bringing moderate seas and trade showers.

It looks like this pattern has set in for a while so this week should see a typical mix of sunshine and showers for Tobago.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

MIDWEEK UPDATE ... 29TH APRIL 2009 ... 1830 BST

Normal?

A depression on the South American mainland has moved north and introduced moisture across a wide swathe of the Caribbean.

Tobago is right on the eastern edge of this so it is not too bad ... but the risks of rain have increased for the next few days.

Any rain could be prolonged and heavy and may fall for several hours.

Another update coming on Saturday.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 2ND MAY 2009 ... 1600 BST


Moisture is increasing from the south as Low pressure takes command.

The Atlantic High is weakening and it is a bit of a mess over the Caribbean with troughs and depressions forming all over the place.

This week we can expect the trade winds to decrease, humidity to increase and a higher risk of rain.

It won't rain all the time ... it is just a higher risk due to the presence of Low Pressure and the reduction of the trades.

There will be plenty of sunshine so enjoy it while you can.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 10TH MAY 2009 ... 1200 BST


I was expecting more rain last week due to low pressure over western Venezuela and Columbia which has a tendency to push moisture north over the southern Caribbean.

Most of this affected areas to the west of Tobago although I noted some rain was falling over Tobago on Thursday and Friday.

The same situation applies for this week ... a strong high in the Atlantic is bringing strong trade winds but it looks like this will weaken and, of course, the now moderate sea swells should start to reduce and I am expecting very calm seas towards the end of this week ... good for snorkelling.

Thus said, the weakening of the High pressure can strengthen the Low pressure so there is a risk that more moisture will develop this week.

Hopefully, like last week, Tobago will only get small doses of the rainfall ... but expect the humidity to rise.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 18TH MAY 2009 1100 BST

It is with great sadness that I have to inform everyone that my laptop passed away in my kitchen last Friday evening during a violent thunderstorm. Needless to say ... my house was struck by lightening.

As a consequence I am PC-less for a while until I get a new laptop up and running so apologies for any disruption to my weather posts.


Anyway ... we have our first Tropical Wave this week so today should mark the first day of the 2009 Hurricane season even though it officially starts on 1st June ... I will set up a new Hurricane 2009 string as soon as I am back to normal.

The Tropical Wave should reach Tobago in the next 48 - 72 hours so expect some unsettled conditions this week as there is plenty of moisture about. There is also some cyclonic turning in the Wave and this could bring squally conditions to a few places in the eastern and southern Caribbean.

A note that it is very showery around Tobago but there should be some sunny interludes ... we will have to see what the Tropical Wave brings later this week.

A deep depression to the north of the Caribbean is also funnelling strong winds in a southerly and westerly direction so the seas could pick up from time to time.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 23RD MAY 2009 ... 1400 BST

What a week ... and Tobago got very lucky.

The Hurricane Season kicked off quite dramatically with a major rain event that caused flooding, strong winds and several deaths in Haiti ... this has petered out now but there are small and rather intense little depressions popping up all across the northern Caribbean, most notably a rather vicious looking system just off the northern Gulf coast.

The Tropical Wave of last week brought little trouble to Tobago but there is another one on the way, again, this is at a very southerly latitude and may not affect Tobago ... but needs watching as it is quite a potent wave producing alot of rainfall.

Overall, it is typical wet season across most of the Caribbean with plenty of moisture ... precisely where rain will fall is difficult to predict in these circumstances but it seems that most of the energy is to the north Caribbean for the next few days.

It is looking much calmer and settled in the southern Caribbean and for Tobago ... but things can change rather quickly and I may be posting an update later this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 31ST MAY 2009 ... 1030 BST


Tobago enjoyed a really nice week of calm weather while the unsettled theme to the north of the Caribbean continued and a new Tropical disturbance developed off the east coast of the US.

However, the weather for Tobago has deteriorated since Friday and there is very moist air around caused by moisture from the south converging with moist trades from the east.

This has caused a large area of heavy showers to develop over the eastern Caribbean and this could stick around for a few days ... plus there are 2 tropical waves on the way.

So ... the rain risk is very high for this week for Tobago and the south eastern Caribbean.

Tomorrow marks the first day of the Hurricane Season ... if anything develops I will be posting in the Hurricane 2009 thread.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 6TH JUNE 2009 ... 1215 BST


Last week was quite rainy as expected but now it appears to have cleared up as Tobago enjoys a quieter interlude.

There are 2 Tropical Waves on the way ... the first one is weak and will pass by in the next 24 - 36 hours ... the second one is much stronger and could bring some weather activity by Tuesday/Wednesday.

The week ahead for Tobago therefore looks fine but with a possible breakdown during mid-week.

In other parts of the Caribbean, the south west is the area to watch as a disturbance is developing near Honduras and off the coast of Nicaragua ... I may be posting on the Hurricane 2009 thread regarding this if there is any further development ... for now it seems that there is a significant threat of heavy rain for the east coast of Mexico and Jamaica towards the end of this week.

Nothing of concern in the Atlantic.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 14TH JUNE 2009 ... 1100 BST


The presence of 2 Tropical Waves in the Caribbean has brought plenty of rain to most areas over the last week.

It has been particularly wet in western and central areas and towards the end of the week a Tropical Wave brought significant rainfall to Tobago and eastern areas of the Caribbean.

This has now moved on and the central and western areas of the Caribbean are in for another few days of heavy rain.

The moisture is still hanging around Tobago so it will be quite showery and humid for a couple more days.

There no no more Tropical Waves in the Atlantic so I am expecting the weather to clear up during the week and bring much more in the way of sunshine for Tobago. The trade winds are quite weak so there is a small risk of some rain moving up from the south.

Otherwise it looks like an improvment on the last couple of days.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 21ST JUNE 2009 ... 0945 BST


The weather is currently very unsettled over the western Caribbean with very heavy rain affecting most areas as far north as the Gulf. This rainfall is expected to move into the Gulf as the week progresses.

For the eastern Caribbean it is much more sunnier but the main feature is an approaching Tropical Wave that should reach Tobago by late Monday. This Wave is producing alot of rain and should bring rainfall to the eastern Caribbean by Monday and through Tuesday.

Behind the Wave are strong Trade Winds and these should kick in and clear the moisture away by Thursday.

So ... there is a high risk of rain from Monday to Wednesday for Tobago and then fresher conditions towards the end of the week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 28TH JUNE 2009 ... 0915 BST


Thanks to Andy and Hugh for their feedback this last week.

The rain risk associated with last weeks' Tropical Wave proved not to be too bad as most of the heavy rain affected the islands to the north of Tobago.

This Tropical Wave is now affecting the western Caribbean and has spawned a potential storm just to the west of the Cayman Islands ... this could develop into a Tropical Storm if it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico.

The next Tropical Wave will arrive by Tuesday this week and this will bring the next risk of rain for a couple of days.

Behind the Wave is drier air so the week should end up much clearer.

Back in the UK ... it is expected to be very tropical this week with high humidity, hot sun and big thunderstorms ... makes a nice change !

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

RAIN UPDATE ... 3RD JULY 2009 ... 0800 BST

A second Tropical Wave this week is approaching Tobago with some heavy rain ahead of the Wave.

The rain should start affecting Tobago today and last until tomorrow.

Behind the Tropical Wave is a large area of Saharan Dust so it is looking positive for plenty of sunshine next week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 5TH JULY 2009 ... 1245 BST

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are affecting Tobago as another Tropical Wave moves through.

Thanks Hugh for the feedback ... Tropical Waves can bring very squally weather and sometimes nothing at all ... it's very unpredictable.

The rain is likely to hang around for a couple of days but behind this Wave there is a huge swathe of Saharan Dust stretching all the way across the Atlantic to Africa ... this is a good indication of less rain next week.

Another Tropical Wave is about 4 days off but this is being affected by the Saharan Dust so hopefully this will reduce the rain potential when the Wave reaches Tobago.

So ... after a wet weekend I am expecting that the week will be much sunnier and with fewer showers.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 12TH JULY 2009 ... 1130 BST


Last week ended with some heavy showers as the most recent Tropical Wave passed through and now the weather is very fine as Saharan Dust is suppressing the development of any substantial moisture.

The trade winds are also quite strong and this may lift the seas during the week.

The seas temperatures are now starting to rise and this brings the risk of more rain for this wet season. But this week looks good ... there is a Tropical Wave about 2 days away that could bring some rain for Tuesday ... again, behind this Wave is alot of Saharan Dust so fair weather should return for the rest of the week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 19TH JULY 2009... 1015 BST

An unsettled week is expected up to Wednesday/Thursday with the focus on 2 Tropical Waves that have developed into Tropical Disturbances and with the National Hurricane Centre giving a warning of a 'less then 30%' risk of development into Tropical Storms.

The first Wave has passed Tobago with most of the heavy rain affecting the windward islands to the north.

The second wave is about 2 days off and this could have more of an impact on Tobago, although I expect most of the bad weather should stay just to the north ... it's close.

So ... expect the weather to be unsettled this week with the highest risk of rain from Tuesday through to Thursday.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 26TH JULY 2009 ... 1000 BST


The weather continues the same pattern of the last 2 weeks with 2 Tropical Waves in the Atlantic and the first Wave will arrive Monday/Tuesday.

As each Wave passes the risk of rain rises but it is very hit and miss as to exactly where the heaviest rain will fall.

The first Wave is pushing alot of moisture ahead of it, heavy rain is affecting Tobago today and heavy showers could continue until this Wave passes with a brief respite before the next Wave passes around Thursday.

Overall the 2009 Hurricane Season has been very quiet so far with nothing of note as the sea surface temperatures have been low and there has been alot of Saharan Dust that tends to stifle storm clouds from developing ... but there are 3 more months to go.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 1ST AUGUST 2009 ... 0900 BST

As unpredictable as the weather can be at this time of year, last week's rain arrived in line with my predictions ... this week looks even more unpredictable.

The ITCZ is now just a few miles to the south of Tobago and the proximity of this means that heavy storms can break out at any time but if they do they are generally shortlived.

There are 2 Tropical Waves on the way with the first one arriving on Sunday and the next one around Wednesday ... there is a higher risk this week that interaction between these Tropical Waves and the ITCZ could bring 2 spells of wet weather as these Tropical Waves pass by.

In between there should be plenty of sunshine but watch out for the odd rogue shower popping up from nowhere.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

INTERMEDIATE UPDATE ... 7TH AUGUST 2009 ... 1615 BST


The ITCZ still passes close to or over Tobago and this, combined with a Tropical Wave, is producing high levels of moisture to the east of Tobago.

Heavy rainfall risk will increase for this weekend and I would not be surprised if the rain starts falling tonight over Tobago.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

RAIN ALERT ... 7th AUGUST 2009 ... 1945 BST

Oops ... it's raining already ... mid afternoon in Tobago ... I was not expecting it until this evening ... covering the southern half of Tobago and the real brunt of it is affecting Trinidad.

It's looking very heavy where the rain is falling and I expect it will become more widespread ... this is a rain event that could easily last the weekend.

Take care on trips.

Regards