Page 1 of 1

Paul - Weather for end of May?

Posted: Fri Apr 29, 2005 5:56 am
by Linda P
Hi Paul

I know long range weather forecasts are not very accurate, but what do you think we can expect for 19th May to 2nd June, we are planning to marry on 27th May so guarantee of no rain on that day would be great :wink:



Posted: Fri Apr 29, 2005 7:09 am
by Paul Tallet
Guarantee? :shock:

The timing of your wedding is low risk ... in other words, the least likely time of year that it could be spoiled by rain.

May and June are normally the best months of the year.

But you never know ... so perhaps I should update you nearer the time.

If you have Internet near where you are staying ... check out Liquid Sunshine ... I will make a note to do an update a few days before the wedding if you like.


Posted: Mon May 02, 2005 5:10 am
by Linda P
Thanks Paul


Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2005 10:23 pm
by Linda P
Thanks Paul

Although I was worried about the weather on the morning of my wedding - torrential downpour for 30 mins, the rest of the day was perfect, not a cloud in sight.

Congratulations on your promotion to Tobago Anorak!

Linda P

Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2005 6:04 am
by Paul Tallet
Hi Linda

Glad it went well.

As I have said May/June are normally low risk but that cannot be said of June 2005.

The weather has been giving me the 'Scarey :shock: Marys' over the last week.


may sound stupid, but what is a tropical wave?

Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2005 6:18 am
by V Fabry
Hey Paul,
I'm reading your liquid sunshine with a lot of pleasure and anticipation, but I have some difficulties with the terminology, as I'm no native English speaker. Could you explain some more about the weather systems in the caribian regio, an artikel or dictionary maybe? For example, I do understand that we had five tropical waves up to now, but what are they? Does it always rain a lot when there is one coming? How long do they linger around Tobago? Can you ask them to stay away the second part of july? :D

Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2005 6:26 am
by Paul Tallet
Great idea V

It is quite a task so if you would be kind enough to give me a little time I will put together a glossary of the terms I use.

Watch this space.


Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2005 9:12 pm
by Paul Tallet
Hi V

Had a hard day at work, got home, thought it through and decided it will take me a long time to put a glossary of terms together about weather.

I guess that a lot of what I can say should be discussed in the LIQUID SUNSHINE FEEDBACK thread.

So what I will do is answer your questions about Tropical Waves directly here, copy the answers to the FEEDBCAK thread and then the discussions can continue from there.

I hope that is OK by you?

So here we go with your questions …

What is a Tropical Wave?

These are also known as Equatorial or Easterly Waves and the reason is simple … they can only happen in the tropics near the equator and they always move west towards the Caribbean from Africa.

They are often quite difficult to see on satellite images because they could be hidden inside a larger weather system or the ITCZ … Inter Tropical Convection (Convergence) Zone.

If you see one it would look ‘V’ shaped and to the west the weather would normally be calm and to the east there would normally be a lot of rain and thunderstorms.

But in reality, the effects of a Tropical Wave can be very widespread, particularly if it reaches land, and this makes it very difficult to see.

For example, a tropical Wave can pass right over Tobago and it would be sunny in Tobago while the rain may fall many miles to the south over Venezuela and this is what makes it hard for me to predict how bad it could be for Tobago … remember I got caught last week with Tobago’s 2nd Tropical Wave !!

I guess that the best way to describe a Tropical Wave is to say it is a trough, like a rain band or developing low pressure … but unique to the Tropics.

Why does a Tropical Wave make it Rain A lot?

It can and it may not, as explained earlier.

It becomes complicated when a Tropical Wave gets near land and the rain could happen a long way away from the Wave.

If it does rain then wherever it happens it is simply because the Tropical Wave is a small depression or trough/rain band.

How Long do they Linger?

Generally a Tropical Wave travels between 5 and 20 knots per hour.

So it could pass Tobago in between 1 and 4 hours … but, as I said, the effects of a Tropical Wave can be spread across a wide area so the rain can go on for hours or days if you are unlucky.

Can I Ask them to stay Away the Second Part of July?

Erm … if I knew the answer to that do you really think that I would be spending hours being a complete ‘anorak’ on the myTobago Forum and loving to try answering your questions?

More Information (i.e.; Other Questions you should have Asked !!)

You need to know that Tropical Waves can develop into Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and, worst of all … Hurricanes.

The best conditions for a Tropical Wave to develop into something more sinister is for the easterly trade winds to fall and for the seas surface temperatures to rise.

At the moment the sea surface temperatures are very high … much higher than normal … see my Hurricane 2005 thread.

But the trade winds are very high … so for now … no hurricanes.

That’s the good news.

But the winds can change quicker than the sea surface temperatures and there are 5 more months of the wet season left.

So, V … when is a hurricane going to happen?

It will happen when the easterly winds die down.

Could it be during the last 2 weeks of July?

Who knows … but it is more likely to be during September and October.

Will it hit Tobago?

Unlikely, but possible … don’t get too excited at this stage.

V ... thank you for your questions ... keep them coming ... and I hope this helps.

Kindest Regards