2006 Hurricane Season

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Paul Tallet
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2006 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:39 am

Hi everyone

I have started this string for the 2006 Hurricane Season to mark the formation of the first likely Tropical Storm of the season just off Cuba this morning.

In addition, we have a very well organised Tropical Wave in the Atlantic that is expected to pass Tobago on Tuesday this week and this is likely to bring a rainfall event and possibly go on to form Tropical Depression characteristics elsewhere later in the week.

I will update as the Tropical Wave moves in.

Regards
Paul Tallet
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Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jun 11, 2006 3:26 pm

Tropical Storm Alberto

The first Tropical Storm of the season just west of Cuba.

Does not look a windy affair but very intense rains could cause problems in Cuba and the Caymans and bring much needed water to drought stricken Florida.

Meanwhile ... a Tropical Wave should bring heavy rains to Tobago on Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Paul Tallet
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Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Jun 12, 2006 4:27 pm

Tropical Storm Alberto

Alberto is very close to Hurricane status and is moving towards the west coast of Florida.


Tropical Wave

The portents of the Tropical Wave have arrived with heavy rain just to the east of Tobago.

The Wave will arrive tomorrow and there will be widespread showers and thunderstorms likely over Tobago Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Jun 13, 2006 7:23 pm

Tropical Storm Alberto

Never officially reached Hurricane strength but now over Florida.


Tropical Wave

Trinidad got a deluge ... everyone got a deluge ... so far Tobago is blessed as the sat loops showed 2 thunderstorms both passing Tobago to each side ... maybe Charlottesville got the edge.

I don't think Tobago got much rain at all ... can anyone there confirm?

Nearly passed but the rain threat is not over until the early hours Wednesday.

The easterly trades will pick up behind this Wave so good sailing for the rest of the week ... and good weather.

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Paul Tallet
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Stephen Hull

Post by Stephen Hull » Tue Jun 13, 2006 9:56 pm

Paul

Quite a few showers today in Scarborough, particularly this afternoon, but probably only half an inch of rain at most.

Steve H

Carrie W

Post by Carrie W » Wed Jun 14, 2006 7:07 am

Do you think the weather will be nice next week? I go Thursay 22nd and hoping for alot of sun 8)

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Post by Andy D » Wed Jun 14, 2006 6:44 pm

I too go again on 22nd so fingers crossed for some fab weather! :D

Carrie W

Post by Carrie W » Wed Jun 14, 2006 8:06 pm

Andy D wrote:I too go again on 22nd so fingers crossed for some fab weather! :D
Really, where are you staying :lol:

M Canham

Post by M Canham » Thu Jun 15, 2006 8:18 am

Me too, staying at Rex. Getting dead excited :D

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Post by Andy D » Thu Jun 15, 2006 3:20 pm

Hi Carrie,i'm staying at Hummingbird Heights, what about you? :D

Carrie W

Post by Carrie W » Fri Jun 16, 2006 5:56 pm

We're off to the Grafton! only 6 days to go :D

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Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Jun 16, 2006 6:14 pm

Gosh !!

This thread has turned into a meeting room.

Another Tropical Wave is approaching Tobago tonight so there is an increased risk of heavy showers through tonight into Saturday.

I will be posting a belated Liquid Sunshine Weekly update on Sunday.

Have fun all you chaps and hope you all get together ... have a Rum Punch for me.

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Post by Jane H » Sat Jun 17, 2006 9:50 pm

Hi Paul,

Can confirm that your Tropical Wave last week hit Grenada with a vengeance on Tuesday - it p*****d down almost all day!

Wednesday was a great improvement - and Thursday (when we left) was glorious!

Jane

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Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Jul 29, 2006 11:35 am

THE FIRST STORM THREAT OF THE SEASON

Hi everyone

I have just posted the Liquid Sunshine update for this week.

It could be time to batten down the hatches for Monday and Tuesday this week.

More details in Liquid Sunshine.

I will be monitoring developments and posting updates over the next 60 hours.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Jul 29, 2006 11:15 pm

UPDATE TROPICAL WAVE

Rainfall has decreased ... this means that the depression is losing it's strength.

Things can change quite quickly for the better or worse ... this is still quite an active Tropical Wave and there are still ingredients for development ahead.

The speed has increased slightly so ETA around Monday afternoon with deterioration in the weather from first thing in the morning.

It is 'hells bells' south of Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico from another Tropical Wave that passed Tobago 2 days ago ... expect flooding here.

The 2006 season is finally warming up.

I will keep you updated.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jul 30, 2006 8:40 pm

TROPICAL WAVE UPDATE

This vigorous Tropical Wave has now created the wave (kink) in the ITCZ and is pushing a very disorganised area of thunderstorms ahead of it.

I sense that the depression that has formed is likely to track to the north of Tobago but the Wave is sucking up the ITCZ from the south ... so rain looks a certainty and Trinidad has had enough rain recently.

There is now a lower risk that Tropical Storm development will occur but it can take a very small change in the environment as the Depression moves into the Caribbean Sea to liven things up.

Consequently, caution is advised as I cannot tell if this system could suddenly develop, as did the first 2 Tropical Storms of 2005 ... very quickly.

The first of the thunderstorms seem likely to be close to the north or directly over Tobago in the next 8 to 12 hours ... the Wave should pass through late tomorrow.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Jul 31, 2006 12:13 am

Copy of post on Liquid Sunshine ...


UPDATE 31st JULY 0115 BST

Rain will set in, in the next 2 hours, as a depression crosses Tobago. This could be sporadic but the rain risk will last through tonight and tomorrow (Monday).

The Tropical Wave is just behind and will pass Tobago during Monday afternoon.

The rain/convection does not look very heavy right now but it could pep up and there is a little potential for development as this system moves over the warm Caribbean Sea.

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Paul Tallet
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Stephen Hull

Post by Stephen Hull » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:14 pm

Paul

After all these dire warnings I got up at 5am to go fishing this morning with some trepidation.

But as things turned out it has been a lovely sunny morning so far... (which more than compensated for my inability to catch anything) - the clouds are mostly white and fluffy with lots of blue sky.


Steve H

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Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Jul 31, 2006 1:19 pm

Steve

You are quite right and I have egg all over my face.

The thunderstorms have simply evaporated into thin air ... I've seen this happen before ... but the Tropical Wave is still yet to pass through.

The opposite could have happened and can yet happen as the Wave passes Tobago later this evening.

You can never be sure ...

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Post by David Watkins » Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:01 pm

Paul,is there some favouritism here?Am I to believe that you are saving the rain for MY break----again?????Is there some "prescotting" going on???mmmmmmmmmmmm.I shall be vatchink yu!!
David :evil:

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