2007 Hurricane Season

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Paul Tallet
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2007 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Jul 04, 2007 8:05 am

Hi everyone

I have started this new post to provide information, alerts and updates on Storm and Hurricane activity in the Caribbean for the 2007 season.

I am currently monitoring the development of a small and vigorous depression about 1,200 miles east of Tobago which is causing a small kink in the ITCZ.

This is travelling west on a latitude of 11 degrees at around 20 mph towards the Caribbean where it should arrive by late on Friday.

It is too early to predict the track of this depression and it is likely to track to the north of Tobago and I sense that this looks more likely set to develop into a heavy rain event but I will be monitoring this over the next 3 days.

I will provide updates should anything change.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Jul 04, 2007 9:32 pm

The depression is showing signs of development ... something could happen up to Tropical Depression status ... Storm unlikely ... Hurricane very unlikely.

But I still remain satisfied that it should pass to the north of Tobago and, should it affect Tobago, it will be a heavy and prolonged rain event at the weekend.

The risks are increasing as the situation stands but these things are very difficult to predict.

I will check it out again in the morning and post further updates.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Jul 05, 2007 6:55 am

This is now a very small and compact depression.

It has slowed down and covered just 200 miles in the last 24 hours so if this speed is maintained then it's arrival time in the Caribbean would be around Sunday and Monday.

This decreases the risks for the early part of the weekend.

However the prospects of development are increasing although I note that the NOAA are suggesting that conditions are not ideal for this depression to develop as it gets closer to the Caribbean ... to be honest, the conditions it is in now don't look that favourable.

We need to keep an eye on this little problem that is currently on a track that takes it very close to Tobago.

Then again ... alot can happen in the next 1,000 miles.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Jul 06, 2007 8:14 am

Tobago had some heavy rain yesterday that was associated with another tropical wave and nothing to do with the little depression I have been monitoring over the last few days.

The depression seemed to weaken yesterday and the NOAA decided to recognise it as part of a tropical wave ?!?

It now seems to have re-intensified and picked up speed.

It also seems to be on a steady westerly track although I think this takes the depression just to the north of Tobago over the weekend (Sunday likely).

What this does in the 24 hours before it reaches the Caribbean is very difficult to predict ... there is very dry air ahead due to Saharan dust deposits in the atmosphere, however this depression has persevered through these conditions already ... it could dissipate and just bring a few shaowers.

On the other hand the sea water is quite warm and the ITCZ is very close and these 2 factors could generate the energy for this depression to develop quite quickly to provide a more substantial rain event.

I am a bit miffed because I won't get much access to the internet on Saturday but I will do my best to provide updates when I can.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Jul 06, 2007 4:34 pm

Heavy rain is affecting southern Trinidad as an airflow of moist weather moves in associated with and ahead of the depression that I now believe should affect Tobago during Saturday.

It is certainly suffering from the surrounding dry atmosphere but could pep up a little as it moves into the warmer Caribbean Sea.

So ... Tobago can expect thunderstorms and/or heavy rain to develop from immediate effect and these are likely to continue through tonight, Saturday and possibly into early Sunday.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Jul 07, 2007 5:36 pm

Please see the warning posted on Liquid Sunshine regarding Heavy Rain.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:00 pm

STORM COMING ... 1ST AUGUST 1500 BST

Hi everyone

Further to my warnings in Liquid Sunshine and Liquid Feedback ...

A small depression is 200 miles east of Tobago ... I can just make out the centre around which 3 out of 4 quadrants are dropping large amounts of rainfall.

The northern quadrant is the most intense and this will likely affect Barbados and other islands to the north.

The southern quadrant is likely to affect Tobago and this is weakening right now.

But young storms like this are brilliant at re-inventing themselves ... so this system needs watching ... Grenada appears to have most risk.

There are another 200 miles (about 10-12 hours) of energy for this system to absorb from the warm seas before reaching Tobago and it seems to be getting it's business together.

So ... intensification is likely ... and, although not official yet, this is already a Tropical Depression and could reach Tropical Storm status by the time the southern quadrant passes over Tobago.

Expect increasingly strong winds and heavy rain by this evening in Tobago ... the rain could be persistent and last well into Thursday.

I will post further updates but recommend caution (particularly on any sea-faring ventures) for the next 24 hours at least.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Aug 01, 2007 3:56 pm

STORM COMING ... 1ST AUGUST 1700 BST

UPDATE ...



Heavy rain now affecting Barbados from the northern quadrant of the depression. This is the largest area of rain although it is now getting a little less intense.

The southern quadrant is intensifying and likely to reach Tobago in the next few hours by dusk.

Another area of very heavy showers is affecting southern Trinidad but this is not associated with the depression.

I will post another update in the next few hours.

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[/b]
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Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:29 pm

STORM COMING ... 1ST AUGUST 2345 BST

UPDATE ...



Barbados is getting the brunt ... Tobago lightly and Grenada hardly at all.

This system will still brimg heavy rain risk and strong winds overnight. It should clear up tomorrow but expect a very showery day.

The system is likely to develop and (hopefully not) cause problems elsewhere.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:44 pm

NOT THIS WEEKEND ... BUT LATE NEXT WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND

Hi everyone

I am watching some trouble rolling off the African coast right now.

More comments in Liquid Sunshine tomorrow and further updates during next week.

Keep you posted.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Aug 11, 2007 9:59 am

Hi everyone

This is an early word of caution for a weather event that is likely to affect the Caribbean towards the end of this week and over the weekend.

The 'trouble' that I referred to in my previous post is now a very potent Tropical Wave and a depression has already formed with the Wave.

It is too early to speculate the precise areas of the Caribbean that will be affected or if indeed the system turns north (which is unlikely).

The whole of the Caribbean should therefore watch this system ... I hope to narrow down the track in the next few days.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Aug 12, 2007 8:33 am

The Tropical Wave has been getting well organised.

The NOAA are predicting that a Tropical Depression will develop in the next 2 days. Conditions look OK for this development.

Will post another update tomorrow.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Aug 13, 2007 1:52 pm

Hi everyone ... an update.

The depression is being labelled 'Invest 90L' by the various forecasters.

This is expected to become a Tropical Depression in the next several hours.

I sense that this may reach Tropical Storm status for a short period before weakening back to a Tropical Depression due to cooler waters in it's path.

I also sense that it's track takes the centre a couple of degrees north of Barbados and affecting the islands to the north as far as the Virgin Islands. This will be on Friday and Saturday.

On entry into the Caribbean Sea I reckon there could be some significant strengthening over warmer waters.

Early days yet ...

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Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Aug 13, 2007 4:32 pm

Hi everyone

The system has now been named Tropical Depression 4.

I am sticking to my track to the north of Barbados ... it could be a little further south and Tobago interests need to watch this up to Friday when it gets close.

Even if the Storm follows my track to the north it could still bring a rain event to Tobago at the weekend.

Another Depression has just rolled off the African Coast and a Tropical Depression seems to be forming off the Yucatan Pensinsula of Mexico.

Things are hotting up ...

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Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:09 pm

TROPICAL STORM DEAN

UPDATE ... 14TH AUGUST 2007 ... 1600 BST


It's getting messy and the risk of a sleepless Friday night for Tobago is increasing.

The Storm has followed a more southerly track ... as a consequence it is absorbing warmer energy from the sea and is likely to be a Hurricane before it reaches the Caribbean.

I originally predicted this would track just to the north of Barbados ... I stand by that and this would be close enough to bring strong winds and heavy rain to Tobago on Friday night.

The prediction models are all over the place as usual because of the more southerly track coupled with the unpredictability of a young storm ... but the balance of opinion seems to take this storm just to the south of Barbados.

Either way ... not good for Barbados based on any of the official prediction models or indeed mine.

If the official predictions are correct then TS Dean will pass close to the north of Tobago as a Hurricane (Cat 1 or 2) ... but not as close or as strong as Ivan a few years ago.

But please don't forget that, at this stage, the official forecasters allow themselves the luxury of a 220 mile margin of error either way from the forecasted track ... this effectively compounds itself for every additional hour of track prediction.

So for now ... I would strongly advise that everyone residing as far south as Trinidad and as far north as the Virgin Islands get themselves into a state of preparedness by Friday.

Barbados appears to have the highest risk.

A further update will be posted tomorrow or sooner should there be a swing in the track of this storm.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:33 am

TROPICAL STORM DEAN

UPDATE 15TH AUGUST 2007 ... 0745 BST


As the high pressure to the north of TS Dean has relaxed a little and the forward speed of the storm is slowing slightly, TS Dean is now beginning to follow a slightly more northerly track in line with my prediction on Monday.

Hurricane status within 36 hours before it reaches the islands and then very likely a major Hurricane in the Caribbean Sea.

There is still the risk of rain and strong winds for Tobago this weekend.

Barbados needs to get ready.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Aug 15, 2007 5:18 pm

TROPICAL STORM DEAN

UPDATE 15TH AUGUST 2007 ... 1815 BST


TS Dean is strengthening and I expect will be a Hurricane by tomorrow morning.

The forecasts tracks have been all over the place as usual with another swing to the south ... a forecast that Tobago will not want ... but I have been happy with my prediction (since Monday) that Dean will just brush the north of Barbados.

I take on board the forecasters' views that the high pressure to the north is now strengthening and is likely to keep Dean on a more southerly track but this is more likely after the Hurricane moves into the Caribbean Sea.

Still ... Tobago should be prepared for the possibility of some rain and wind on Friday evening.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Aug 16, 2007 8:39 am

TROPICAL STORM DEAN

UPDATE 16TH AUGUST 2007 ... 0945 BST



TS Dean is about to become a Hurricane. The track has changed little but the speed has picked up.

This is quite a large storm with the strong winds and rain extending out many miles from the centre.

Tobago should catch some of the rain from the outer bands of the southern quadrant of the storm as Dean passes to the north of Barbados during tonight and tomorrow.

There is an increasing likelihood that Dean will become a major Hurricane (i.e.; Cat 4 or 5) tracking right across the centre of the Caribbean towards the Mexican Pensinsula.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:54 pm

HURRICANE DEAN

UPDATE ... 16TH AUGUST 2007 ... 1900 BST


Dean has intensified into a Category 2 or 3 Hurricane, the latter of which Dean will be when he slams into the Islands just to the north of Barbados.

Heavy showers are breaking out around Tobago right now and there is a strong risk of very heavy rain tonight and tomorrow although Tobago will be on the edge of any strong winds ... there will also be some heavy seas to deal with.

To the north of Tobago, Barbados and all the islands to the north as far as the Virgin Islands are in for a severe weather event. The closer to the centre of Dean the more severe it will be.

Dean looks certain to develop into a major Hurricane very quickly as he moves into the warm Caribbean Sea ... Jamaica should watch this closely.

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Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Aug 16, 2007 9:34 pm

HURRICANE DEAN

UPDATE ... 16TH AUGUST 2007 ... 2240 BST



Heavy rain is now starting to affect Tobago as the outer bands of Hurricane Dean move over.

This rain will intensify overnight and could bring flash flooding. Further rain is possible after daylight tomorrow.

Meanwhile ... the outer bands of Dean are affecting Barbados and Dean is 'bang on' the track that I forecast on Monday ... St Lucia and Martinique seem most at risk.

Dean is now Category 2 with sustained wind speeds in excesss of 85 mph and this is likely to increase to Category 3 or 4 in the next 48 hours.

Tobago should not be affected by these wind speeds but there is the possibility that localised squalls could bring gusty winds from time to time.

Please also take care with sea conditions ... the swells are likely to be quite high for the next 48 hours or so.

I will post another update in the morning.

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