2008 Hurricane Season

Weather reports, questions and comment.
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Paul Tallet
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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Sep 10, 2008 3:25 pm

HURRICANE IKE UPDATE ... 10TH SEPTEMBER 2008 ... 1630 BST


Ike has now left Cuba although heavy rain and strong winds are still affecting Cuba from the outer rain bands. Although there will be much damage in Cuba, there have not been many reported fatalities.

Haiti is a complete disaster area ... the floods from Hanna not only carried water but the water carried alot of debris and dumped it in many low lying areas ... I have seen some horrible video footage of the flooding on the Carib Storm website.

Ike is already strengthening and growing in size over warm seas ... the worse predictions are of a Category 4 Storm making landfall on the Texas coast this Friday and Saturday.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, another Tropical Wave is on it's way with a small circulation ... no alarm bells are ringing yet.

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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Sep 11, 2008 10:14 pm

TRICKY IKE ... 11TH SEPTEMBER 2008 ... 2300 BST

Ike is intensifying but he is playing a card.

His pressure is really low but his (wind) intensity does not reflect the pressure readings ... but he is getting bigger too.

Regardless of the tricks ... Ike is a major Hurricane and this is down to his size ... the massive (bigger than Katrina) size is sucking up the sea water in the Gulf and creating massive swells around coasts in Florida and the whole of the Gulf ... the Gulf is like a bowl.

So ... if we go by the stats and assume the winds won't be that bad ... the sheer size of Ike is going to bring massive seas surges to the landfall site ... Texas ... I hope the whole of the Texas coast is completely devoid of humanity as otherwise there will be a high body count.

In the next 24 to 36 hours Ike will show his true colours ... I predict Cat 3 or 4 plus a few wobbles and surprises ... remember the size though ... Ike is a massive storm with damaging winds extending about 250 miles from his centre ... damage will be widespread and the costs will be huge.

Ike has devastation written all over him.

Meanwhile ... more trouble is brewing up east of the Northern Antilles from the remnants of Josephine ... could it be more rain for Haiti?

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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Sep 12, 2008 6:49 pm

BAD IKE ... UPDATE ... 12TH SEPTEMBER 2008 ... 1930 BST

This will be my last update before Ike makes landfall on the Texas coast.

Ike is a massive hurricane ... the intensity is academic because the hurricane force and tropical storm force winds are covering a huge area and this makes Ike a major weather event.

The sheer scope of this makes the storm surge all the more greater ... you could have a Cat 5 make landfall with a windspan of just 40 miles (this causes more localised damage in a short period of time) but a Cat 2 (like Ike) with a wind span of 500 miles is pretty huge in comparison because the effects and the sea (being sucked up) happens over a wider area.

Ike is moving quickly so ... the rain won't be a big problem and the winds are not that strong (around 100 mph) compared to Cat 4 or 5 ... the problem is as follows ... the massive circulation will bring sustained wind speeds of between 50 and 100 mph to many areas for a long period of 10 hours or more.

The Storm surge is likely to be phenomenal with a storm of Ike's size ... this is the big worry ... coastal areas are likely to be devastated.

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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Sep 18, 2008 3:05 pm

DISTURBANCE OVER EAST CARIBBEAN ... 18TH SEPTEMBER 2008 ... 1600 BST

I predicted a higher risk of heavy rain for Tobago a couple of days ago and, sure enough, it arrived ... but the Tropical Wave that brought this rain has passed on and left a depression behind that is quite slow moving.

The areas worst affected so far are the Islands to the north of Tobago but as I write there could yet be further heavy periods of rain for Tobago before the next 18 to 24 hours are over.

This depression could also develop over the central Caribbean over the weekend but, for now, it is becoming quite a big rain event over the whole length of the Windward Islands.

In Africa ... another depression is expected to form off the coast maybe by the weekend.

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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Sep 19, 2008 12:52 pm

INVEST 93 ... UPDATE ... 19TH SEPTEMBER 2008 ... 1400 BST


I am seeing some reports of flooding coming in from many Islands as this very slow moving depression affects the eastern Caribbean.

Of interest are the reports of high winds and squalls which is indicitive of a disturbance but as yet such winds are not circulating (i.e.; this disturbance is very disorganised) and the satellite loops show alot of wind shear over the system which is preventing it from getting it's act together.

Right now a very nasty looking thunderstorm has been affecting Trinidad and producing plenty of rain over Tobago and other storm cells are developing across a wide area as they did yesterday afternoon.

Expect more to come and I hope this system moves on in the next 12 hours ... some prediction models are forcasting this to develop further in a couple of days as it moves west.

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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Sep 20, 2008 5:52 pm

UPDATE ... 20TH SEPTEMBER 2008 ... 1900 BST


It's been very wet over Tobago for the last 4/5 days and this wetness is set to continue until tomorrow as a Tropical disturbance finally starts to move north west.

But ... we have one to watch ... at a much lower latitude than I originally expected (almost on the equator) is a new development off Africa ... this needs to be watched ... I will be tracking this and posting updates over the next week.

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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Sep 21, 2008 8:37 am

UPDATE ... 21ST SEPTEMBER 2008 ... 0930 BST


Invest 93's main area of disturbance is moving over Puerto Rico and really getting it's act together ... again this is a little to close for comfort for Haiti ... development is now looking much more favourable.

The heavy rain seems to have cleared away from Tobago at last.

No change on the new Tropical Wave near Africa.

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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Sep 23, 2008 5:09 pm

INVEST 93 UPDATE ... 23dRD SEPTEMBER 2008 ... 1800 BST


Why do we call these things Invests? ... We should call them DTD's (Dangerous Tropical Disturbances) !!

It's no good refusing to designate Tropical Depression status just because there is no closed circulation of winds at the surface ... dangerous systems need identifying and being given a status to raise people's awareness of them.

In this case, having dumped vast quantities of rain of the Windwards (including Tobago), Invest 93 has moved on to dump an estimated 25 inches of rain over Puerto Rico which has been completely flooded and brought to a total standstill.

Heavy wind shear from the west has battered Invest 93 and there is a serious question mark over whether this system will ever reach Tropical Storm status ... but the fact is ... it is dangerous and producing colossal quantities of moisture.

The main rain areas have been sheared to the south and east of the estimated centre and it looks like Puerto Rico could get another dunking while Haiti and the Dominican are very very close to more of the stuff they don't want.

Invest 93 is slow moving and doing exactly the opposite of what the forecasting models say ... very dangerous rain event.

Meanwhile ... no further development in the Atlantic ... but watching it.

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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Sep 25, 2008 11:46 pm

TS Kyle ... 26th September 2008 ... 0100 BST

Oh at long last ... Kyle is born ... but don't forget that she has already dumped copious amounts of rain over Trinidad & Tobago, Barbados and all the Windward Islands, then Puerto Rico and the Dominican.

Anyway, she is moving north towards Canada ... could even be a Hurricane at some point. Bermuda at low risk.

Not much happening elsewhere yet.

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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Sep 29, 2008 7:36 pm

(EXTRA) TROPICAL STORM LAURA ... 29TH SEPTEMBER 2008 ... 2030 BST


A new development but no threat to the Caribbean and minimal threat to the US ... how about the UK for the weekend?

Laura has formed in the central Atlantic and High pressure is forcing her west and then north and she is expected to get caught up in the westerlies and pushed rapidly east back towards the UK for the weekend as a very strong extra-tropical storm.

Admittedly, it is early days ... but it makes a change to assess this possibility ... better go check my gutters !

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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Sep 30, 2008 5:27 pm

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ... 30TH SEPTEMBER 2008 ... 1815 BST

The northern UK needs to get ready for this ... I am becoming increasingly confident that Storm Force Winds will be affecting the northern UK by Sunday ... I'd say 50% to 70% chance for Scotland and reducing to 10% and 20% for the southern counties.

The UK Met Office has not yet issued any warnings on this.

Laura has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm despite her high latitude. The High to her east is sinking south and as soon as she reaches the westerlies she will turn east over the receding High pressure and speed towards the British Isles and then Scandinavia.

She is unlikely to stay a Tropical Storm but the chances of the UK getting a pretty potent Autumnal Weather Event are increasing for the weekend.

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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:11 pm

UPDATE ... 2ND OCTOBER 2008 ... 1900 BST

The tropics are unusually quiet for this time of year when, typically, tropical storm activity is around it's peak. With little sign of any Atlantic development I guess I will get a rest for at least a week.

But ... I am now watching the remnants of Tropical Storm Laura turning increasingly to the east and gearing up for an encounter with the UK at the weekend.

The risks of strong winds are increasing further south and decreasing for the north but Laura is merging with other frontal systems and it looks like the whole of the UK is going to be subjected to a big rain event that will be sustained throughout the weekend ... I note that the UK Met Office has issued the first warning of rain and possible flooding for the south west on Saturday.

Meanwhile, back on the farm ... so to speak ... Tobago is having a fine week of weather with only a small chance that it could be spoiled by the 2nd of 2 Tropical Waves by early next week.

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SiannDave

Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by SiannDave » Sat Oct 04, 2008 11:35 am

hi paul, daft question i spose! we are flying gatwick tobago via antigue on 9th oct, do you forsee any weather problems that may effect the flight , especialy the last hop?
regards dave n sian

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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Oct 04, 2008 2:09 pm

Hello Dave and Siann

No I don't see any problems ... if there is any bad weather the planes can vary their routes to avoid it.

It is quite quiet with only rain events occurring around the Caribbean.

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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Oct 05, 2008 12:55 am

UPDATE ... 5TH OCTOBER 2008 ... 0200 BST

There are no noteworthy developments in the Tropics right now.

But the southern half of the UK is about to experience a significant rain event from the remnants of Tropical Storm Laura. The track of this system has moved continuously south and, therefore, it seems that France will get the worst of the winds.

But not a good day for the UK Midlands and possibly the rest of the south ... watch for reports of flooding and don't be surprised if travel methods are disrupted. Make plenty of time for your journeys if travelling to Tobago.

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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Oct 06, 2008 10:27 pm

UPDATE ... 6TH OCTOBER 2008 ... 2330 BST


The remnants of Laura brought plenty of rain to the UK but not enough (only 2 inches) to cause severe flooding.

Meanwhile in the bay of Campeche east of the Mexican Yucatan Peninsula a very tiny Tropical Storm (Marco) has developed ... a short life though as he will move over land.

A disturbance in the Atlantic is also looking at a short life as upper level winds will shear off any further development.

But there is something coming off Africa that looks interesting ... early days.

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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Oct 10, 2008 12:59 pm

UPDATE ... 10TH OCTOBER 2008 ... 1400 BST

The area of rain affecting Tobago has become a Tropical Disturbance but is unlikely to develop further although there is a small possibility of development as this system moves into the Caribbean Sea.

In the mid-Atlantic there is a more significant disturbance that I reported coming off the coast of Africa in my last post. The conditions are not all that good for this system but the NHC have now given this a 20 - 50% chance of developing ... early days, but the Caribbean should watch this disturbance.

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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Oct 13, 2008 11:52 am

UPDATE ... 13TH OCTOBER 2008 ... 1300 BST

The Tropical Distirbance that has been affecting Tobago and the rest of the Windward Islands has not moved west and fills most of the Caribbean Sea as a frighteningly large mass of extremely heavy rain.

Currently, Puerto Rico, Haiti, Jamaica and the Dominican seem to be at the highest risk of another major rain event coupled with the added prospect that this could develop into a Tropical Storm very shortly.

The other Tropical Disturbance in the Atlantic has now flared up into Tropical Storm Nana but she is likely to have a short life as there is very heavy wind shear in this area.

So ... all eyes should be keeping watch on the central Caribbean this week.

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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Oct 14, 2008 1:21 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 ... 14TH OCTOBER 2008 ... 1415 BST

The very large area of heavy rain and strong winds has confounded all the prediction models by slipping back a little to the south east and the rain area now extends over the Dutch Antilles and into the coastal areas of Venezuela.

A turn is expected to the east and then to the north east for a track across the northern windwards and possibly as far west as Puerto Rico before speed off into the North Atlantic.

The problem is that this system has produced a very large area of rain ... if this continues then the heavy rain will again affect a very wide area across all of the Windwards and possibly as far south as Tobago over the next 12 to 72 hours.

It is also very close to Tropical Storm strength and needs watching.

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Re: 2008 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Oct 14, 2008 3:33 pm

TROPICAL STORM OMAR ... 14TH OCTOBER 2008 ... 1630 BST

As expected, Omar has formed in the Caribbean Sea. He is still moving towards the east which is raising the risks of further rain affecting Grenada and possibly Trinidad & Tobago.

Omar's centre is nowhere near so it is a rain event risk that is increasing for the south eastern Caribbean ... this needs watching for the next day or 2, the outer rain bands of Omar are not that far away.

The centre of Omar should eventually go north east and affect the northern Windward Islands ... there is likely to be significant rainfall in these areas and the possibility of Hurricane conditions as far west as Puerto Rico.

Another Tropical Depression has formed off the Honduran Coast and this looks likely to bring heavy rain and strong winds to these areas and possibly Belize ... another hurricane potential but it depends how much time this system stays over the warm sea.

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