2010 Hurricane Season

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE DANIELLE & TS EARL

Danielle is of little threat to anywhere although there is a slight chance of brushing the eastern US coast.

Newly formed Earl is tracking more to the west and there is a small risk that it could affect the north east Caribbean at the weekend as a medium strength hurricane but it looks more likely that Florida is under threat from this Storm ... the position can change.

A third strong Wave has just moved off the African coast so there is plenty going on.

Regards

[Peter Kuhn]

Hi Paul,
I saw the visible loop (Atlantic wide view) at NHC website. It looks like that EARL is sucking some power from DANIELLE.
Never saw something like this before.

Peter

[Paul Tallet]

DANIELLE, EARL AND THE OTHER ONE

Hi Peter

I think you are seeing the outflow from Danielle ... it does admittedly look like Earl is sucking it in ... but it is Danielle that could have an effect on Earl because she has left a wake of cooler churned up sea and this can inhibit Earl's development, although I still expect Earl will be a Hurricane very shortly.

The other factor is where Danielle goes ... if she recurves to the east of Bermuda and back into the northern Atlantic this could allow the high pressure to rebuild more quickly before Earl has a chance to recurve and this would keep Earl on a more westerly track ... this is a small risk facing the northern Lesser Antilles and Florida ... so we need to watch Danielle over the next 48 hours to see what Earl could do.

Next up ... another blob off the African coast ... I reckon this can develop too within the next 3 or 4 days.

Tobago is currently protected by the ITCZ.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

DANIELLE, EARL, THE NEXT ONE AND THE ONE AFTER THAT


We now have 3 situations and a 4th one that is still over Africa and should emerge over Atlantic waters during this weekend.

Danielle ... is the first major Hurricane of the season at Category 3 and still strengthening. Bermuda is at risk although the centre of Danielle is likely to pass to the east of Bermuda and recurve back into the mid-Atlantic ... expect pounding waves around Bermuda and on the east coast of the US over the next few days.

Earl ... is almost a Hurricane now and has the potential to get as intense as Danielle or possibly stronger. Danielle's more easterly track is raising the risks that Earl could affect the Northern Lesser Antilles by early next week as Earl could get stuck on a westerly track if the High pressure re-builds quickly behind Danielle and block Earl's recurve. The various prediction models currently agree that Earl will do no more than brush the extreme north eastern Islands ... then will it strike the eastern US or Florida? ... whatever ... Earl should be watched and the bunkers should be ready.

The 3rd one is gearing up and should develop into a Tropical Depression within the next 2 days ... very early days but I note this is at a lower latitude than where Earl formed (who formed at a lower latitude than Danielle) ... I hope this is not a progressive cycle of forming further south, but we have yet to locate a centre when the Depression forms.

A 4th blob is over Africa ... expect plenty of happening over the next 2 weeks.

I will update tomorrow unless anything scandalous happens in the meantime.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

DANIELLE, EARL ETC - UPDATE

Danielle has weakened to a category 2 Hurricane but is still expected to bring Tropical Storm force winds to Bermuda ... according, the appropriate warnings have been issued.

Now that it is clear that Danielle is tracking more to the east this is bringing worrying consequences for the Northern Lesser Antilles.

Earl is still following a westerly track due to Danielle's movements and the risks are now getting higher for Earl to bring Hurricane conditions to the north eastern Caribbean Islands and the Bahamas. In fact, if Earl follows this route the whole track could change and he may end up going into the Caribbean ... Earl is a very dangerous Storm due to this unpredictability.

The new development is a long way off and is not yet a Tropical Depression ... for now, my attention is focused on the very dangerous Earl.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

EARL

It is now looking inevitable that Earl is going to affect the north eastern Caribbean and Hurricane warnings have been issued for Monserrat, Antigua and the Virgin Islands.

Earl is a strong Tropical Storm and is expected to strengthen as he makes his approach to the Islands ... conditions will start to deteriorate later today and the Islands will be experiencing Hurricane conditions overnight and tomorrow.

This is a very dangerous storm that has defied all the forcasting models ... I would recommend anywhere from St Lucia northwards is ready for Earl as he can wobble and I am expecting Earl to strengthen explosively if he enters the Caribbean Sea.

Behind Earl is another worry yet to develop ... this is on a more southerly latitude and could affect more Islands ... early days though.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

DANGEROUS HURRICANE EARL

Earl is now a hurricane, has wobbled a little further south and even Tobago has had a few showers from the outer rainbands.

Barbados is now at the southern-most edge of Earl. It is difficult to see exactly where the centre (eye) is but this should soon become clear as Earl strengthens as he crosses the northern Leeward Islands.

Earl is also slowing down and this is an added worry regarding the rainfall amounts. NHC say about 3-5 inches but it could be alot more if Earl stalls.

This is a very dangerous situation which is going to affect many Caribbean Islands and I hope the affected Islands have made whatever preparations they can to protect life and property.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

DANGEROUS HURRICANE EARL - UPDATE

It looks to me like the centre of Earl is going to pass closest to Monserrat, Guadaloupe, Dominica and possibly Martinigue and he is still wobbling which often happens when a new storm is strengthening ... so any of these Islands could get the brunt.

Heavy rains are over these areas already and conditions will worsen considerably over the next 24 hours as Earl also appears to be slowing down.

There is a large outflow from the Hurricane and even Tobago is getting some showers from this outflow.

Earl is strengthening and is very dangerous ... the strengthening could be quite rapid so the Islands mentioned above should expect the worst and hope for the best. Earl could be a major hurricane very soon.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

EARL UPDATE

The good news is that the strongest winds appear to be to the north of the centre of Earl.

Even better news is Earl appears to have taken a wobble to the north.

If the Islands affected are to the south of the centre it will be bad but not as bad as being to the north of the centre.

The only bad news is that Earl is slowing a little and this means more rainfall ... flooding.

Whilst watching Earl ... we must also watch the next development in the Atlantic which is following a similar track a little more to the south of Earl ... this is of concern for late this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

EARL UPDATE

Earl continues a slow bend to the north west and the eye is passing just north of Barbuda with Anquilla in the Hurricane's path.

Contrary to my comments last night, the worst of the hurricane force winds seem to have shifted to the west and south side of Earl and this is a worry for these Islands.

Thunderstorms and extremely heavy rain stretch out a long way from the centre to the south and therefore most of the Windward Islands as far south as St Lucia are under a deluge.

Even Tobago is still getting showers from one of the outer rain bands.

Earl is also strengthening ... it's not good ... I am wondering how much experience Puerto Rico will have of Earl who could go through the gears to Category 4 in the next 24 hours ... we just have to hope the eye stays out at sea.

Then where will Earl go next? ... and then the next one, it's on it's way.

Regards

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

EARL NOW CATEGORY 4 ... AND NOW FIONA

Earl has strengthened quite rapidly but his eye is just far away enough for the Islands to avoid the worst of the Hurricane force wind bands which extend about 70 - 80 miles from the eye.

Earl is also curving quite steadily to the north west and this will be of some relief to many ... but the rainfall remains a problem.

Just behind, Tropical Storm Fiona has just been confirmed by the NHC. It looks like Fiona could follow Earl's track but this would mean it unlikely that Fiona could develop into much due to the cooler seas churned up in Earl's wake.

If Fiona took a more southerly track she could be dangerous but this is pure speculation at this stage ... early days.

I will keep updating.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

EARL AND FIONA

Earl is still wobbling but he is now taking a more north westerly track and there is now some uncertainty over where he could make landfall on the US coast or whether he will recurve out to sea so Bermuda will be watching this powerful Hurricane as well.

I have not yet seen any reports of fatalities in the affected Islands but it is encouraging to note that Earl's eye does not appear to have made landfall anywhere ... this is an indication that wind damage won't have been as severe as it could have been ... there is bound to have been some heavy flooding from the rains.

Fiona is following an almost identical track to Earl but she seems to be slightly to the left (west). Fiona is in a bit of a mess as it will be hard for her to develop as well as Earl as she passes over cooler seas churned up by Earl. Having said that, the most recent satloops show some pretty impressive convective bursts.

There is a risk that Fiona could track more to the west which would be a worry but if she followed Earl's track she would be affecting the areas that have already had their punishment ... so, even though Fiona is unlikely to reach Hurricane status she is very dangerous to any areas that are recovering from Earl's rains.

The next 2 days will tell.

Over on the other side of the Atlantic another blob has appeared ... further updates to follow ...

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

FIONA AND EARL

US forecasters seem to have lost interest in Tropical Storm Fiona that is now moving in on the same places affected by Hurricane Earl ... it is very rare for the same areas to be affected by 2 Storms within a few days of each other, although Haiti and Cuba took 4 hits last year albeit these hits were spread over a longer time.

So the headline with US forecasters is Earl and where he will make landfall along the US coast or whether he will go out to sea.

I will focus on Fiona ... she has strengthened a little but she is likely to weaken in the wake of Earl's outflow shear and the cooler seas ... she has not followed the predicted track and has kept going west ... but for now, Fiona is dropping more heavy rain on saturated areas and will likely worsen the conditions that Earl left behind ... however, I guess these Islands will be in as good a state of readiness as anyone can be.

Meanwhile, another development is gearing up in the Tropical Atlantic.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

EARL, FIONA & GASTON


Little change to Hurricane Earl ... a strong category 4 expected to brush the east coast of the US over the next few days.

Fiona is complicated ... she doesn't look good and the various forecasting model predictions are all over the place with dissipation or development into a Hurricane at opposite ends of the spectrum ... much of this depends on Earl who is not far away to the north ... but the main things is that Fiona is moving north and away from the Northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical Storm Gaston could be a problem if he can get the dry air out of his system ... he is slow moving and has high pressure building ahead of him which is likely to steer him west and possibly more to the left. This raises the risk that Gaston could affect the Leeward Islands by early next week at a lower latitude than Fiona and Earl.

All of the Leeward Islands should watch Gaston ... hopefully conditions will bring a change.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

EARL, FIONA AND GASTON UPDATE

Weakening Hurricane Earl is motoring up the eastern coast of the US and could bring hurricane conditions to some parts of the coastline but more likely Tropical Storm conditions ... landfall is not expected until Earl reaches Canada when he will be a Tropical or Extra-Tropical Storm.

Tropical Storm Fiona is quite a toughie and is still quite potent despite all the shear she is taking from Earl's outflow ... Fiona could pose some minor problems for Bermuda but she could dissipate completely before she gets there.

Gaston has succumbed to dry saharan air but there is a possibility that he could start developing again in the next few days as conditions ahead are a little more favourable ... Gaston is still a potential problem for the Caribbean because the longer any development takes then the less likely he will try to spin away to the north, coupled with the fact that high pressure to the north is likely to keep Gaston on a westerly track.

All the Islands (including Tobago) should keep an eye on Gaston's progress ... he is a risk.

Another Tropical Wave has moved off the coast of Africa ... various models are predicting development of this system in the next 4 days ... Another Wave is over Africa and the models are predicting development of this in the next 7 days.


Regards

[Paul Tallet]

GASTON ... THE RETURN?

Earl is blowing herself out over Canada and Fiona has pretty much disappeared, so the Caribbean has a short break.

Gaston is a quandarry ... he is very small and looks like half a Storm with his eastern side still affected by dry air ... we also need to be clear that he has been a Tropical Storm and is now just a remnant of that ... he could redevelop and I agree with the models that are making this prediction.

To me ... Gaston is meandering on a westward track and I sense that this could dip a little south because of the strong high pressure to the north of Gaston ... I think he could be dangerous because development looks unlikely until he gets away from the dry air and makes it to the Windwards and then we have all those worries as we have had before.

I would give Tobago a very low risk of any direct impact from Gaston and but risk increases for the Islands to the north of Tobago ... regardless, there could be indirect weather impacts on Tobago from Gaston on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Behind Gaston is another Wave that is also struggling with dry air and that could develop further on in it's progress across the Atlantic.

Another disturbance is causing bother in the Bay of Campeche near Mexico ... this one needs watching too.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE

The remnants of Gaston have not been able to shake off the dry air that has dogged this system all the way across the Atlantic ... as a consequence, Gaston represented nothing more than a cluster of thunderstorms and squalls as he crossed the northern Leeward Islands ... he is now to the south of Puerto Rico ... don't write him off yet though.

Tropical Storm Hermine was a nasty system that brought flooding and fatalities to Guatemala before it even developed. Hermine developed very quickly and it will be of some relief that he did not stay over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche for long before tracking north west over Mexico and Texas ... if Hermine had stayed over sea we could have seen explosive development into a major hurricane similar to Wilma (2005).

Back over on the other side of the Atlantic, another development is forming with the NHC giving it a 50% chance of becoming a storm within the next 48 hours ... to early to predict where this one will go ... there are another 2 disturbances behind this Wave.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

IGOR

Tropical Storm Igor has formed quickly and is currently bringing high winds to the Cape Verde Islands.

Conditions look good for the development of Igor into a major hurricane within the next few days.

I don't sense that Igor will affect the Caribbean but this cannot be ruled out at this early stage ... the likely track is towards the US East coast or a recurve back out into the Atlantic ... it just depends on Igor's interaction with another nearby depression and how quickly high pressure fills the void left by this depression.

I = a big storm ... remember Ivan and Isabelle ... I am sure they are running out of names for 'I' ... it just happens to be the point in the alphabet that gets the peak of most Hurricane seasons.

Igor has badness written all over it so lets just hope he stays at sea.

There are more developments to come behind Igor.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

IGOR ETC

Low pressure affecting the eastern Caribbean, including Trinidad and Tobago, has started showing signs of Tropical Storm development.

For now, there is plenty of heavy rain and thunderstorm activity over quite a large area and the NHC have given a 20% chance that something will develop in the next 48 hours ... it's not moving much so we need to keep an eye on this surprise development.

Tobago can expect intermittent deluges for the next 12 - 24 hours.

There has been no change to Igor apart from increased confidence that he will track north of the caribbean.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE

Igor has suffered from wind shear but he has started to recover and I expect him to develop into a strong Hurricane over the next few days ... he does not yet pose a threat to any land areas.

The disturbance in the south east Caribbean is still causing problems in some areas ... I have seen reports of severe thunderstorms with very strong winds from St Lucia and Tobago. The system has moved a little north and the NHC have raised the risk of Tropical Storm development to 40%.

The silly thing is that, while this is not yet classified as a Tropical Storm, there are localised incidents where Tropical Storm conditions are experienced as the system tries to get it's act together.

Tobago is getting a slight respite at the moment but there is another area of heavy rain moving up from the south.

Another 12 hours of this bad weather is ahead for Tobago.

Regards