2011 Hurricane Season

Weather reports, questions and comment.
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Paul Tallet
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2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Jun 01, 2011 5:55 pm

Welcome to the 8th Hurricane Season that I am posting on.

The 2011 hurricane season is expected to be very active. Sea Temperatures are a little less than last year but there is less of La Nina this year and therefore we can expect favourable wind shear and moderately favourable sea temperatures, although they could cool as the season progresses.

I will use this topic to post updates on the general situation in the Atlantic and the Caribbean and, of course, disclose any relevance in the activity to Tobago.

Tobago is not exempt, there have been many near misses in the last 8 years but Tobago is on the front line of the Caribbean and worries often set in as Tropical Waves move in and start developing before the weather models have got a proper handle on the situation.

Last year, I thought the models were very good so here is hoping for further improvements for 2011.

Already in 2011 we have 2 disturbances ... one to the east coast of Florida and another one in the south west Caribbean Sea that is currently threatening to develop towards Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti.

One thing I hope for this year is a respite for Haiti.

Also watch out for posts in the Liquid Sunshine Feedback Topic.

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Paul Tallet
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Andy K
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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Andy K » Fri Jun 03, 2011 1:07 am

Thank you Paul for the introduction of the 2011 season and your constant hard work for the weather
chapter of this web site.

I would like to add that i recommend for visitors who walk with their computers / smart phones to
monitor the following web site on a daily basis:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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Gisela Grell
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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Gisela Grell » Fri Jun 03, 2011 8:03 pm

Dear Pete, ahm sorry I mean Paul,

I also wish to thank you for your constant work on the weather report on mytobago.info and all the intersting informations.
I hope the waether will treat me kindly when I'm there but 'I willnever blame it on you if not.

Andy, thank you for the link. I marked it right behind "mytobago" and will take my Netbook and hopefully will get Internet connection with my stick.

Cheers
Gisela
Cheers
Gisela
a.k.a. Shorty
see some pics on http://www.gisela-grell.de

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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jun 05, 2011 9:20 am

Thanks Andy / Gisela

Right now, Tobago has had wet weather from a Tropical Wave that has just passed by ... 3 more Waves are to follow this week with the next one due late Monday and through Tuesday ... more details in the Liquid Sunshine weekly update.

There is a Tropical disturbance to the South East of Jamaica which comes from the bad weather near Columbia last week ... there is a small chance of further development, if not there will still be plenty of rains for Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti.

No Hurricanes or Storms yet but a very active start to the new season.

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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Jun 08, 2011 10:59 pm

It seems to be calming down.

There is still plenty of wet weather over the northern Caribbean but this is gradually dispersing.

The ITCZ has sunk to the south and the Tropical Waves have passed. There is one large blob coming off the coast of Africa.

Tobago has has a good week by comparison to the rest of the Caribbean and it looks like this will continue until the weekend and (dare I say) up to a week from now.

Enjoy while you can :mrgreen:

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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Jun 14, 2011 1:02 pm

The first weak Tropical Wave has passed Tobago and now the 2nd stronger Tropical Wave is moving in from the East.

Expect an increasing risk of scattered and very heavy showers for the next 24 - 48 hours over Trinidad & Tobago and most of the Eastern Caribbean.

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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Jul 11, 2011 1:01 pm

TROPICAL WAVE

As indicated in yesterday's Liquid Sunshine Weekly Update, a Tropical Wave is due to arrive in the next 24 hours over Tobago ... the wave, itself, is not a threat but it will introduce alot of moisture which is behind it.

The NHC are monitoring this Wave as it appears that a Depression is forming behind it. There is a very low risk of this developing into a Storm at this stage.

From Tuesday through to Thursday in Tobago there are the following risks:-


High risk of very heavy rain ... either localised or widespread

Localised Squalls / strong winds


I will be monitoring this for the next 48 hours.

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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Jul 13, 2011 5:33 pm

TROPICAL WAVE UPDATE

The Tropical Wave has passed through. The rain associated with it diminished but there were widespread scattered showers that affected Islands mostly to the north of Tobago.

As the Tropical Wave has introduced a very moist airflow behind it the risks of rain are fairly high with an area of rain to the south-east of Tobago ... this looks more likely to affect Trinidad.

Meanwhile, a development is just off the coast of Mexico ... whether it has the time to develop into a Storm before it moves inland is difficult to say but it will certainly bring some rain to Mexico over the next 48 hours.

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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Jul 13, 2011 10:37 pm

TROPICAL WAVE UPDATE

As predicted, heavy rains are affecting Trinidad now.

I would not be surprised to see these rains nudge a little north to affect Tobago over the next 24 hours.

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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Jul 18, 2011 5:22 pm

TROPICAL STORM BRET ...


... formed yesterday east of Florida and north of the Bahamas.

Nothing much special as he is moving north east across the Atlantic so there should be no substantial problems for landmasses.

It will be interesting to see if Bret aggravates the already miserable weather over the UK towards the end of next weekend.

There do not appear to be any other threats for the Caribbean but it is an, admittedly, 'wet' wet season so far.


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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Jul 22, 2011 4:18 pm

BRET, CINDY and NEXT TROPICAL WAVE


Bret has died out but Cindy is somehow retaining Tropical Storm status as she moves rapidly towards Northern Europe. Not more wet and windy weather for the UK I hope.

The new threat is just east of Tobago and the other Leeward Islands and is expected to bring alot of rain to most places this weekend.

Any development of this Wave is likely to be to the north of Tobago but this does not rule out a risk of heavy showers and squally conditions for Tobago over the weekend.

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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Jul 29, 2011 9:11 am

NEW THREAT TO THE CARIBBEAN

We have Tropical Storm Don in the Gulf and this is not a major feature as Don is very small and unlikely to affect a wide area of Mexico's coastline.

But we do have a problem brewing up near the Equator in the Atlantic ... I referred to this Wave as a possible threat for this weekend in last week's Liquid Sunshine Weekly Update.

Initially this Wave was tangling with the ITCZ and it is rare for anything to spin away when so close to the Equator ... however, a depression has now formed around the 8 degree latitude level.

This is a threat that Tobago and all the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean need to watch over the next 2 days.

I will update as I see developments.

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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:12 pm

THREAT REMAINS

The risks of Tropical Storm or Hurricane conditions are increasing for the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean.

The most likely scenario takes this system to the north of Tobago as a Tropical Storm or minor Hurricane.

There is a smaller risk of the system affecting Tobago as a more borderline Tropical Depression if it take a more southerly track.

Regardless, Tobago should be ready for some challenging weather conditions around Monday.

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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jul 31, 2011 10:50 am

EMILY

The threat is increasing for the Caribbean ... decreasing for Tobago.

Tobago is still at risk of heavy rains on Monday and Tuesday.

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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jul 31, 2011 10:01 pm

EMILY UPDATE

Emily has not yet formed.

The Tropical Wave associated with the Depression appears to have broken free and moved ahead and this is now bringing heavy rains to the Leeward Islands to the north of Tobago.

I expect these rains to start affecting Tobago very soon and I expect Monday to be a wet day.

The Depression follows this ... it's looking likely that the Depression will develop into a Tropical Storm and affect Islands to the north of Barbados. But I am talking about the centre. There is still a risk of rainbands extending from the system and bringing rains and squalls over a wider area including Tobago.

We cannot also rule out a very small risk that the system could stay south of it's expected track and be closer to Tobago.

Measures should be taken to prepare for extreme weather conditions over the next 48 - 72 hours from now.

Hopefully it will come to nothing for Tobago but, rest assured, it will come to something somewhere along the Leewards.

I will post an update tomorrow.

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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:45 pm

EMILY UPDATE

Not Emily yet, but gearing up and on the cusp of developing into a Tropical Storm ...

The leading Tropical Wave is still producing heavy rain over the Islands to the north and north-west of Barbados and rainbands are forming around the following depression just to the north-east of Barbados.

Scattered showers surround these systems, some of which are affecting Tobago ... some will be squally ... Tropical Storm force winds have been recorded in these systems already.

More is to come ... plenty of moisture is piling up along the ITCZ behind the Depression and reasonable rainfall amounts are likely to affect Trinidad, Tobago and most of the southern Caribbean for the rest of this week.

Meanwhile, Islands from Mustique and Barbados northwards should be prepared to take the brunt of this developing Storm.

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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:13 pm

EMILY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA

Rains still affect most of the Leewards with Emily now through and clear into the Caribbean Sea.

Emily looked rather potent this morning but has since become rather ragged in appearance on the sat loops ... weather commentators are also scratching their heads and seem to have come to the consensus that Emily will not achieve Hurricane strength.

If nobody knows why Emily struggled today then Emily remains a dangerous Storm.

The main worry about Emily is that Haiti (yet again) is on her radar.

Meanwhile ... moisture continues to build behind the next Tropical Wave as we near the peak of the season.

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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Aug 04, 2011 4:23 pm

EMILY UPDATE

Tropical Storm Emily has now started to attack Hispaniola and Haiti (as I worryingly predicted).

The track has been more westwards which gives Emily a better chance of surviving but brings real problems for Haiti that seems to have been a magnet for these Storms in recent years.

Cuba next and then there is considerable uncertainty of where Emily will turn ... Florida may be next.

Emily poses a rain threat more than a wind threat and she is not exactly moving fast ... so some areas will probably get between 15 and 20 inches of rainfall.

The Atlantic is quietening down as a strong plume of Saharan dust moves south and west towards the Caribbean. This weekend looks quite nice for the Leewards including Tobago.

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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Aug 06, 2011 8:22 am

EMILY RIP

Emily was quite dramatically and almost completely destroyed by the high terrain of Haiti and Hispaniola.

The remnants of the storm are now scattered over the Bahamas. Some weather models are predicting that Emily could reorganise which seems unlikely to me.

Nevertheless there are still a number of potent thunderstorms in that area.

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Re: 2011 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Aug 12, 2011 10:36 am

2 NEW THREATS

I posted yesterday on Liquid Sunshine of 2 Depressions that are showing signs of development in the eastern Tropical Atlantic ... it looks like these 2 could be a distraction to me this weekend.

The nearest one is less of a threat due to the fact that it is at quite a respectable latitude and is more likely to spin to the north of the Caribbean and possibly threaten the US or swerve back out to the North Atlantic ... however one of the weather models is predicting a track right through the middle of the Leeward Islands. The business days for this one are Monday and Tuesday.

The one behind is the interesting one ... this is showing better signs of development and is at a more southerly position and, as a consequence, represents a greater threat to the Caribbean. The Atlantic High is quite strong and this indicates that it could keep these developments on a more westerly track rather than the usual spin towards the north.

The business days for this second development are Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

There are 2 more developments to the north east of the Caribbean but these do not pose any significant threat.

We are now in the peak period of the Hurricane Season and I am expecting one of the 2 threats in the eastern Atlantic to become a feature over the next week ... my bet is on the second one.

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