LIQUID SUNSHINE

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 20TH DECEMBER 2008 ... 1130 GMT

There has been a constant threat of rain from the east over the last week as a number of very slow moving troughs have meandered about in the Atlantic.

Increasing high pressure is also creating strong trade winds mainly to the north of Tobago.

Most of the satellite services have been down for the last week so I am not getting a full picture of what is going on but it seems that Tobago has been getting a fair bit of cloud from the moisture area to the east ... and possibly some rain.


Tobago this Week

From the limited information I have it seems that Tobago is under alot of moisture and, although it should not rain all the time, there is the prospect of more rain than normal this weekend and possibly into this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

CHRISTMAS UPDATE ... 25TH DECEMBER 2008 ... 0115 GMT


I am struggling a bit because most of the Satloops aren't working and have not been working for the last couple of weeks.

But, extensive research indicates that there is a very thick layer of Saharan dust over the whole Caribbean and there are strong trades.

The upshot of this for Tobago is trade showers (fast moving), plenty of sunshine and heavy seas.

Not good for snorkelling ... but you may as well have a jump in the waves ... enjoy it ... and I am looking forward to being in my beloved place again in 2 weeks time when I will be reporting from under the sky for a change.

Have a good Christmas ... wherever you are.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 27TH DECEMBER 2008 ... 1530 GMT


Not much change from the Christmas update a couple of days ago.

There is alot of rain and cloudiness in the Atlantic but strong high pressure over the Caribbean is keeping this at bay.

Looking a little further afield, the weather in the north Atlantic is very unusual with a cold block over Europe ... very warm air moving north right up to the Arctic and cold air coming back down over North America bringing the extremely cold and snowy conditions ... the weather patterns are almost in reverse, so it is quite unusual.


Tobago this Week

More of the same, strong trades and shortlived trade showers and sunshine.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE ... 29th DECEMBER 2008 ... 1100 GMT


Very strong trades are affecting all of the Caribbean and this is bringing sea swells of between 8 and 15 feet around Tobago and much higher in some other areas in te Eastern Caribbean.

But the moisture levels are increasing over Tobago as the large area of rain has started to edge closer ... it is not far away to the east.

If this sets in then there could be quite alot of rain over the next week ... it's 50/50 but expect more in the way of showers and cloudiness from now until my update next Saturday. More humidity if the trades ease off.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 3RD JANUARY 2008 ... 1300 GMT


The trades have decreased a little but the moisture and cloudiness that has, for many weeks, been hanging around to the east of Tobago has now moved into the south eastern area of the Caribbean.


General Situation

Decreasing Trades are bringing calmer seas, high pressure seems to be getting into it's normal position and, apart from the moisture currently affecting the south east Caribbean it looks like the weather is starting to settle into a normal pattern for this time of year.


Tobago This Week

Sea swells are reducing and it should be very calm by the middle of the week. Plenty of showers will continue to fall over this weekend and this shower activity will also reduce by the middle of the week.

Typical dry season.

Subject to internet access my forecasts will be from Tobago for the next few weeks but advance apologies if I miss ... rumour has it that the Naturalist has wireless connectivity so there should not be a problem.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 10TH JANUARY 2009 ... 1200 GMT


Greetings from Castara

This morning is lovely and calm but a little bit cloudy so hopefully the clouds will blow away later today.

Some moisture lies to the south and east so there is a small risk of rain although I expect the moderate trades to keep this at bay. Trinidad looks most at risk.

Elsewhere it is almost completely dry across most of the Caribbean apart from a frontal trough in the extreme north over the Gulf.

High pressure is establishing itself in the Atlantic so I expect more of the same weather for the rest of the week.

I will post weather updates on Liquid Sunshine Feedback during the week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 24TH JANUARY 2009 ... 1230 GMT


Back in the UK.

I had a lovely 2 weeks of weather in Tobago with just one notable day where it rained on and off. There were numerous showers lasting between a few minutes and half an hour but most of these fell at night as can be expected at this time of year.

To the annoyance of my son, James, the sea stayed moderate or calm with only one day where a few 6 footers crashed on Castara Beach.


General Situation

It is very typical for this time of year. Dry air covers most of the Caribbean but it there is more moisture to the south and east including Tobago.

The trades are also picking up to the north but I am expecting it to stay calm further south with increasingly calmer seas.


Tobago this Week

The usual mix of sunshine and short sharp showers. The sea is set to stay calm although it could get a little choppy on the Atlantic side.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 1ST FEBRUARY 2009 ... 1100 GMT


The recent rains were brough about by the combination of low pressure over Venezuela and an associated trough (weather front) moving through the southern Caribbean.

Although the main area of rain has completely dissipated there is still alot of moisture around so I would expect quite a few locally generated showers to fall for the next few days ... there will be plenty of sunshine of course.

The good news is the approach of a huge swathe of Saharan Dust crossing the Atlantic. This is already covering the northern Caribbean and should start affecting the southern Caribbean later this week.

This brings the prospect of much drier weather, possibly for the next 2 weeks.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 7TH FEBRUARY 2009 ... 1245 GMT

There has been appreciable rain over the last week as a series of troughs have passed through, Basically, the pressure is low and this causes moisture to develop quite readily.

On the other hand, the upper air flow is drier and heavily laden with Saharan Dust and this prevents the rainfall getting too heavy as the cloud tops find it hard to develop and cool in these circumstances.

So ... I appreciate that there has been some frustration with the recent rainfall but the drier air is gradually making it's presence felt and the showers and longer spells of rain should become fewer and less heavy as the next week or 2 unfolds.

There are some pockets of moist air around here and there where rainfall can develop but it is very hit and miss.

The prospects for more sunshine look better though.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

MID-WEEK UPDATE ... 10TH FEBRUARY 2009 ... 1800 GMT

I have been watching developments today and things have changed quite rapidly as a southerly airflow has set in over the eastern Caribbean.

The first consequence of this is that the strong flow of dry air and saharan dust is being pushed away to the north ... this is bad news.

The second consequence is the low pressure over South America that is feeding heavy moisture levels north and over the southern Caribbean ... also bad news.

So it is all change from the predictions I made last Saturday.

Rain will fall and it is likely to get heavier and heavier as it sets in ... I am seeing some very bright echoes just to the south of Tobago and the rain is already affecting Trinidad ... I also reckon this could last a few days and the rain could become very intense at times with some flash flooding.

Not good news for this time of year but it just goes to show that there is little difference between dry and wet seasons and, of course, how unpredictable the weather can be in the tropics.

Further north, a trough has been developing which will no doubt spoil the holidays for others visiting Puerto Rico, the Dominican and the Bahamas over the next few days.

Back here in the UK it is still cold, wet and ghastly ... so you could do alot worse than Tobago.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 14TH FEBRUARY 2009 ... 1045 GMT

It has been a rather disappointing week as a moist southerly airflow has brought rain from the mainland from time to time.

This has really set in and also a strong (and drier) airflow from the east has set in with the 2 airflows converging to the north of Tobago. The easterly is bring strong trades and this will explain why the seas have been high lately.

During periods like this it can be very wet but it really depends on how much moisture the southerly airflow is carrying and therefore you can have days of rain, frequent showers or it may just be a little more cloudy than usual.

The root of the problem is the Atlantic High which has been pushed south by a deep northern Atlantic depression ... this creates a squeeze between the High and the ITCZ at the Equator and, of course, the trades travel much faster through the narrow channel and, in Tobago's case, this also increases the chances of a more southerly flow from a moist direction.

The dry air to the north starts from Barbados northwards and unfortunately it seems that the weather from the south is winning and is likely to be the theme for much of the coming week.

When the Atlantic High starts to move north back to it's usual position then we can expect normal weather conditions to return.


Tobago This Week

The trend continues with a good chance of rain from time to time but there are always going to be sunny breaks.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

MID-WEEK UPDATE ... 18TH FEBRUARY 2009 ... 1730 GMT

In view of the recent rainy weather I thought I should update everyone on how we can expect some inprovements over the next few days.

Firstly, it looks nice and sunny (with the odd shower) in Tobago today but there is still a risk of rain for a few more days.

A very deep depression is dominating the Atlantic ... this is a very powerful storm that has split the Atlantic High to the east and the west. The eastern High has moved further north which means that the trades will start to pick up and eventually cut out the southerly airflow that has been bringing rain.

But before that happens, a frontal trough associated with the Atlantic Storm is going to move south across the Windwards down to as far as St Lucia ... this represents the 'gap' and further moisture could be pulled up through this affecting the eastern Caribbean over the next few days.

Behind the trough, High pressure is rebuilding from the west.

As the depression moves north then High pressure will re-establish itself fully in the Atlantic by maybe Sunday.

Bingo !! ... Things should then return to normal.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 21ST FEBRUARY 2009 ... 1630 GMT

Bingo!! ... Things are starting to happen.

High Pressure is converging across the Atlantic and strong trades are picking up across most of the Caribbean.

This seems to have cut out the southerly airflow that has brought unseasonal rains over Tobago.

But ... the trades are also bringing quite a bit of moisture but these will be much faster moving showers that will not last long.

This week ... Sunshine and showers ... possible heavy seas.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 28TH FEBRUARY 2009 ... 1615 GMT


Yet another depression in the mid-Atlantic is indirectly causing unusual weather patterns over the Caribbean.

The High pressure has been pushed to the south and the effect of this is to draw a more southerly airflow over Tobago and the rest of the eastern Caribbean.

With Low pressure over Venezuela this southerly airflow is very moist and showers have developed over a wide area in the Caribbean Sea ... some of these showers are heavy.

Tobago has had the best of it with less rain falling here than in areas to the West such as the Dutch Antilles.

Once again, we are back to a higher risk of rain and higher humidity ... but it is very hit and miss as to where the rain falls.

It could be a lovely week but don't be surprised if there are a few rainy periods this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Once again, the weather is very unusual.

A deep depression has formed in the Atlantic just to the north east of the northern Windward Islands and this is fueling very strong winds around it's northern and western sides.

A consequence of this is that the weather for Tobago for the beginning of this week will be coming from the north ... very unusual.

The depression has also spawned a frontal trough that runs diagonally from the north east to the south west of the Caribbean Sea ... this will bring some rain.

Another consequence will be a period of heavy seas as the strong winds persist.

I expect that Islands to the north of Tobago will feel the effects of this more than Tobago but Tobago should expect some unusual weather over the next 3 or 4 days.

Expect increasingly heavy seas, a northerly breeze and the prospect of some heavy bursts of rain up until Tuesday or Wednesday. The sun will shine too ... it's not all bad news !

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 14TH MARCH 2009 ... 1115 GMT


Last week was a bit odd with a strong northerly airflow bringing heavy seas last weekend from a deep depression to the north east of the Windwards. This situation repeated itself towards the end of the week as another deep depression developed and this is now moving away into the central Atlantic.

Some normality is now expected as High pressure is building in the wake of the depression but this will continue to bring strong trades.

The heavy seas around Tobago and much of the rest of the Caribbean are peaking this weekend again and I expect them to reduce slowly over the course of next week.

Expect less rain this week as dry air covers the whole Caribbean ... there should be plenty of sunshine and only a few showers. the only niggle I have is Low pressure to the west over South America and this could push some moisture nothwards over Tobago from time to time but the risks of this seem quite low.

So here's looking to a much better week of weather, albeit a little windy.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 22ND MARCH 2009 ... 1030 GMT

The chances of rain increase a little this week across the whole of the Caribbean as Low pressure develops to the north in the Atlantic and to the south over South America.

The southern direction is the one to watch for Tobago. Nothing may come of it but these developments do have a habit of sending plumes of moisture northwards over the southern Caribbean.

Otherwise, the weather should stay fine with medium to strong trade winds and the sea should become a little calmer this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 28TH MARCH 2009 ... 0900 GMT

Hmmm ... the clocks go forward tonight in the UK to officially mark British Summertime ... meanwhile it is rain, sleet and snow and cold winds ... typically unusual and I am not in the mood for my planned trip to a Garden Centre today.

Meanwhile, back on the farm so to speak (In Tobago) ... the weather has been just as unusual this year with a very wet dry season ... I sense that I had the best 2 weeks there last January out of the last 3 months.

It has been raining on and off in Tobago for the last few days ... I had expected this in my update last week and it is the mucky stuff from the south that is causing it.

The showery rain will continue today and probably through tomorrow (Sunday) plus the seas should be quite jumpy this weekend.

I am expecting the weather to calm down from Monday onwards as a new High builds to the north east of the Caribbean and strengthens the trades to blow the muck away and introduce the more traditional mix of sunshine and showers.

Here's to an improvement this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 4TH APRIL 2009 ... 1315 BST

For the first time in a long time I feel confident that the weather for Tobago will be nice this week.

A succession of Atlantic depressions have been bringing frontal troughs south over the Caribbean in recent weeks but this pattern seems to be stopping and normal trades are becoming established.

Dry air has set in across almost all of the Caribbean and, as I type, the skies look very clear.

I am cautiously optimistic that the weather should be very fine for the week ahead with only trade showers.

There is a tiny risk of moisture moving up from a depression over South America.

So if you are there ... have a good week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 10TH APRIL 2009 ... 1000 BST

An early update this week as I have a busy Easter weekend ahead of me.

The unpredictable and rainy weather that has dogged this year's Dry Season has, unfortunately, returned.

A southerly airflow has developed over the south eastern Caribbean and this, with the help of Low Pressure over South America, is allowing moist air to surge northwards to affect most of the Windward Islands.

This will bring more rain at times although there should be plenty of sunny breaks but it is very unpredicatable because showers can develop quite randomly and some islands will get a day's rain while others will have a beautiful sunny day.

This airflow will reduce the trade winds and I expect the sea to be much calmer in the coming week around Tobago.

So, very hit and miss ... lets hope it's more of the miss for Tobago this week.

Regards