myTobago – your questions, review and comment about Tobago

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 8TH AUGUST 2009 ... 0945 BST

Following on from my updates yesterday it is looking unsettled for Tobago for the next 3 or 4 days with a high risk of rain.

The ITCZ is close and this is being pepped up by a succession of Tropical Waves moving in from the Atlantic.

Right now there is a brief interlude from any persistent rain but there are 2 more areas of heavy rain to the east, the second of which may just miss Tobago to the north and dissipate under Saharan Dust which is keep the rain at bay for the more northern Windward Islands.

At this stage it is difficult to look further than a few days and the good thing is that there is no sign of any storm development.

I will probably update in midweek.

Regards

MID-WEEK UPDATE ... 10TH AUGUST 2009 ... 1800 BST

Er well I know it is only Monday but ...

The bad weather I was predicting has moved to the north of Tobago and is now raining heavily over Barbados and other nearby Islands.

A development has occurred off the west coast of Africa and although this is very low risk for Tobago at this stage it needs watching.

More details on the Hurricane 2009 posts.

Regards

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 15TH AUGUST 2009 ... 1130 BST

The activity in the Atlantic has increased significantly over the last few days and next week is promising to be quite eventful.

Tropical Storm Ana is moving in and I expect she will affect any of the Islands from Martinique northwards.

The next one is just on the cusp of becoming a Tropical Storm and this is at a lower latitude and could spell trouble for areas further to the south during the middle of next week.

Early days ... but as things stand I am not expecting this to be the best week of weather.

Please refer to the Hurricane 2009 posts for updates.

Regards

RAIN WARNING ... 21ST AUGUST 2009 ... 2015 BST


The Tropical Wave that spawned Hurricane Bill is now pushing some strong showers and longer spells of rain across Trinidad & Tobago.

Bit of a wash out for the weekend.

Regards

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 23RD AUGUST 2009 ... 1245 BST

The last week has been quite eventful with Hurricane Bill that luckily has not had much impact on any areas although there have been indirect effects such as high seas and rain bands affecting some Islands.

Bill is now starting his turn to the east and is expected to bring very windy weather to the UK later this week on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Tobago has had alot of rain over the last 48 hours due to a remnant of the Tropical Wave that spawned Bill and the proximity of the ITCZ just to the south.

Another Tropical Wave is about 36 hours away so this week is looking rather unsettled for Tobago with a high risk of rain.

Regards

INTERIM WEEKLY UPDATE ... 29TH AUGUST 2009 ... 1545 BST


I am deferring this week's update until tomorrow when I will do a proper post.

The reason for this is considerable uncertainty over 'Invest 94' that was looking like a threat and is still looking like a threat but now much weaker.

I want to watch this system for another 24 hours before I post an update.

Regards

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 30TH AUGUST 2009 ... 1000 BST

I still cannot get my head round Invest 94 which is currently about 1,000 miles east of Tobago. It's track will depend very much on how or if it develops ... but it seems to have started getting it's act together this morning ... see more details in the '2009 Hurricane' section.

As matters stand, it looks like there is a high risk of rain and squalls for Tobago late Monday and into Tuesday. The risk of Stormy conditions is lower because I think Invest 94 will go further north if it develops ... but if it does stay weak and stay south it could suddenly develop as it moves into the Caribbean Sea ... so this needs watching closely and I recommend everyone takes precautions to be on the safe side.

Before and after this the weather should more or less stay fine.

I will be posting updates in the '2009 Hurricane' section later today and tomorrow as Invest 94's plans become clearer.

Regards

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 5TH SEPTEMBER 2009 ... 1530 BST


What a week !

Tropical Storm Erika caused all kinds of problems as she meandered into the Caribbean and most of the Windwards from Barbados northwards received an absolute deluge of 8 inches or more ... put this into perspective with the extraordinary 16+ inches that fell over Tobago in 15 hours in November 2004 and it was not that bad but it would have brought some flooding.

Erika is now a remnant low dropping rain over Puerto Rico and nowhere near as intense as she was a few days ago.

We are now in the 'silly season' where the Hurricane Season reaches it's peak. There are 2 Tropical Waves in the Atlantic and several more behind over Africa. All these Waves are quite vigorous and it is likely that one or 2 will develop into a Tropical Storm or Hurricane over the next week or 2.

This makes the weather conditions for the Caribbean very unpredictable and each day has to be taken as it comes.

As for Tobago, the weather is currently fine although there are some showers around ... expect this to continue all week but don't be surprised if conditions change quickly.

I will post updates if anything changes and, of course, updates regarding any Tropical Storm development will be posted in the 2009 Hurricane section when anything happens in the Atlantic or Caribbean.

Regards

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 13TH SEPTEMBER 2009 ... 1000 BST

It's very quiet over the southern Caribbean although some heavy showers are affecting the south east and Tobago and this is likely to set in for the next 24 hours.

Otherwise, it looks like being a settled week.

The action is elsewhere with a disturbance that needs monitoring in the Gulf and a new disturbance is brewing off the African coast.

Neither of these will be a threat to Tobago.

Regards

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 21ST SEPTEMBER 2009 ... 1330 BST


Sorry for the late update.

It rained a bit more than I expected last week ... typical rainy season stuff.

But it has cleared up ... there is always the risk of rain popping up anywhere in September/October but it looks fine for Tobago as I see it right now.

The main thing is that there is little sign of Tropical Storm development which is rare for this time of year.

Looking fine this week ...

Regards

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 27TH SEPTEMBER 2009 ... 0900 BST

The current Hurricane Season was showing some signs of life a few weeks ago and despite a regular string of Tropical Waves moving off the African Coast nothing much has materialised since and the 2009 season is increasingly looking like a quiet season.

The wind shear in the Atlantic has generally been too strong for anything to develop and this seems to give the best chances of any storms to develop within the Caribbean Sea itself.

But there are 2 months to go and too dangerous for me to make the assumption that not much will form over this time.

Right now, the air is getting moist, there is very little in the way of Saharan Dust across the Atlantic so we can expect to see the trades carrying more showers this week.

There are already scattered showers across the south east Caribbean and these are being pepped up by the proximity of the ITCZ.

I am expecting a showery week ahead but with a good degree of sunshine in between.


Regards

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 4TH OCTOBER 2009 ... 1330 BST


It's looking like another wetter than average week as 2 Tropical Waves from the Atlantic look set to bring spells of heavy rain to the Caribbean this week.

There is a very small risk that one of these Waves could develop but I think this is unlikely and, if it does, it will spin off to the north.

There is little Saharan Dust influence and the moisture levels are very high ... this looks like a trend that could set in for a few weeks.

So ... expect some rainy days this week.

Regards

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 10TH OCTOBER 2009 ... 2000 BST


It's looking good this week.

Last week ended with very heavy rain that has now moved on ... the Wave that brought this rain has dragged some fine weather behind it so the next few days look OK.

There is another Wave on the way that could bring some rain in the middle of the week but otherwise it looks fine.

There are no Tropical disurbances to speak of right now ... it has been a quiet Hurricane season.

Regards

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 17TH OCTOBER 2009 ... 1730 BST


A very showery end to last week is likely to continue as plenty of moisture is pumped westwards across the Tropics over the Atlantic.

So although there will be sunshine, plenty of showers will also apply for most of this week and I reckon most of these will fall overnight.

In what is fast becoming a quiet Hurricane Season there is very little in the way of any disturbance in sight for this week.

Regards

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 25TH OCTOBER 2009 ... 0930 GMT

This so called wet season is proving to be quite a dry one for many parts of the Caribbean and there is been very little Storm activity with named storms very much lower than the NHC predictions.

Having said that, there has been some rain around over the last week but this has mainly affected the south west Caribbean.

Tobago and the south eastern Caribbean has enjoyed a pattern of fine weather with the normal showers and this pattern looks set to continue.

But things can change very quickly at this time of year ... there is still a month of the official Hurricane season left and, although a forthcoming disturbance is looking more and more unlikely, you never know.

Here's looking ahead to a week of good weather.

Regards

MID-WEEK UPDATE ... 28TH OCTOBER 2009 ... 1745 GMT


What a crap forecast I did last Sunday!

Having said that, I did say it can be unpredictable at this time of year.

Anyway ... the usual culprit, the ITCZ, has kicked off and there is very heavy rain falling over Tobago ... this could go on all week or it can die down as quickly as it started.

Looks like a wet time for at least 24 hours and probably longer ... but the ITCZ is very unpredictable ... we should take each day as it comes.

Regards

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 31ST OCTOBER 2009 ... 0945 GMT

Last week showed just how unpredictable the weather can be at this time of year.

The Caribbean is split between dry air to the north and very moist air to the south and a couple of Tropical Waves to boost the rainfall.

The rainy weather is therefore expected to continue this week for Tobago and as far north as Antigua as the second Tropical Wave is due for around Tuesday.

There should be plenty of sunny interludes between though.

Regards

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 7TH NOVEMBER 2009 ... 1115 GMT

Last week was a little more rainy than normal as expected and high moisture levels are expected to continue although the weather looks quite good at the time of posting this.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Ida is a worry in the Western Caribbean ... see the Hurricane 2009 thread for more info.

This weekend could be quite showery as a Tropical Wave is about to cross Tobago. There is not much about the wave but it could pep up the showers as it passes through this weekend.

The next Tropical Wave is due by Wednesday and this is dragging alot of moisture behind it so the pattern looks like the first half of the week up to Wednesday/Thursday should bring mostly fine weather but I expect the balance will swing a little more to rain for the end of the week.

Regards

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 14TH NOVEMBER 2009 ... 1615 GMT


Tobago has had a reasonably fine week of weather and the showers I predicted for the latter half of the week affected Islands to the north of Barbados.

It seems that the transition to the (alleged) Dry season is in progress as the ITCZ has moved south and the satloops are showing the whole of the Caribbean relatively clear and only one isolated area of organised rain in the far south west. There are some random showers in the south east and some of these may be affecting Tobago.

2 Tropical Waves are carrying some moisture towards the Caribbean, arrival likely on Tuesday. But otherwise it is looking fine with sunshine and showers.

Regards

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 22ND NOVEMBER 2009 ... 1500 GMT

Another fine week for Tobago last week with a little extra rainfall around on Friday.

My focus during the week switched to the deluge over the UK with some parts of Cumbria having over a foot of rain although I think it was much worse in western Ireland. The 12+ inches of rain actually fell over 2 to 3 days, bridges have fallen and people have died ... just compare that to the 16 or so inches of rain that fell over Tobago in the 2004 rain event at about this time of year ... that fell in less than 16 hours bringing deadly mudslides and virtually wiped out the beautiful coral reefs off Charlottesville's beach.

Conversely, the November weather in 2009 has been much calmer and there is another week of fine weather to look forward to with a small risk of rain in midweek as (probably) the last Tropical Wave moves through.

The 2009 Hurricane Season is effectively over.

Regards