myTobago – your questions, review and comment about Tobago

Here is the new thread to focus on the forthcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season for 2010.

I have brought all the previous Hurricane Posts back up to the top (bttt) of the Weather Forum where a considerable number of historical accounts have been posted.


Predictions for 2010

The season started on 1st June and the following key factors already seem apparent.

Firstly, there are record breaking high sea surface temperatures across the Tropical Atlantic and in the Caribbean Ocean. These are expected to cool slowly as the season progresses but they are still expected to remain at high or record breaking levels compared to historical data ... to the extent that concerns have been raised by environmentalists that some coral reefs could be under threat.

Secondly, the wind shear currently looks perfect for Tropical Storm development although this is one of the more unpredictable factors that can change frequently during the season.

The 3rd factor is the Atlantic and Bermuda Highs ... where they will be positioned ... this will indicate the likely direction of Storms that develop.

Finally, Saharan Dust ... levels of Dust are predicted to be moderate this year. This Factor seems to be the only chance of restricting the development of Tropical Storms this year.

Unfortunately, the other Factors look likely to combine to bring a very active season.


The Oil Factor

The Gulf area, Mexico and most of the south US Coasts are already facing an environmental catastrophe from the large spillage of Oil that continues to be discharged into the Sea.

A Hurricane has never encountered a major Oil Slick so it is pure speculation as to what could happen if a major Storm ploughed into the Oil affected areas.

A number of theories have been made ... could the oil restrict a Storm?

Some have suggested that the oil’s ability to retain heat could warm up the sea and feed even more energy to Tropical Storms.

Based on historical records, a major Hurricane is very likely in this area at some point this season ... could it be possible that this distributes the oil more widely?

A Hurricane’s surge (with oil) on landfall would be devastating ... or could the oil or some of it’s components be sucked up into a powerful storm and distributed as ‘contaminated rain’ over a wider area?

Perhaps a Hurricane could be an ideal cleaning agent for this disaster ... nobody is sure ... but it sure is worrying.


What about Tobago?
As always, Tobago is placed in the lower risk category for a direct Hurricane hit but there can be surprises.

Tobago has had some very close shaves in the last decade and we must understand that Tobago stands on the ‘front line’ ... this is the point at which the cooler Tropical Atlantic meets the much warmer Caribbean Sea and this often triggers a surge of development that can be quite sudden.

Many vigorous Tropical Waves and Depressions have passed through Tobago and the Lesser Antilles in the early stages of Tropical development and then gone on to cause widespread damage as major storms elsewhere.

But Tobago is very vulnerable should any Waves bring a disturbance that has enough of the ingredients it needs to feed on before it reaches the Caribbean (Ref: Ivan, 2004).

The other one to watch is the Atlantic High ... the more to the west it sits then the more Storms are going to be steered to the south before they take their natural curve to the north.

In view of the very high sea temperatures I believe Tobago should be ready for at least a close shave this year.


Summary

I have been posting news about Hurricanes every year and particularly where there is a threat or indirect/direct effect on Tobago.

This where you can find the news on Storm development for the rest of 2010.

Watch this space.


Regards

Hi Paul;

As usual, very informative with some interesting predictions and outcomes.
Cheers. I look forward to seeing your reports!

Thank you Roger

Lets hope there are not too many sleepless nights this year

Regards

FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF 2010


A potential spinner is developing in the middle of the Tropical Atlantic at 7 degrees latitude.

This is a very low latitude and the depression needs to ease a little further north to get going.

However, conditions around the depression are perfect for development and not too good if it goes north and there is alot of uncertainty (as always!) amongst the various computer models about what this system will do. I am sure the forecasts will improve later this week.

As matters stand, Tobago is facing a high risk of heavy rain for the end of the week regardless of what happens to this embryonic system ... the chances of a Tropical Storm or worse affecting Tobago are quite low at this stage but Tobago and the rest of the Lesser Antilles should keep an eye on this development and be prepared.

Regards

The system has become better organised and the risks have increased that this will develop into a Tropical Depression/Storm.

The risks to Tobago have decreased slightly since the centre of this system appears to have tracked a little further north to 8 degrees but there is quite a chunky ridge of High Pressure to the north of this system which is likely to restrict too much curvature to the north at this stage.

Tobago is still at some risk and should be prepared ... the risks of heavy rain by the end of the week are still very high.

Regards

Oh cr*p ...

We're flying out on Thursday for two weeks.

Should we expect any flight disruption?

How many days should we expect heavy rain to last?

Cheers

The rain risk is associated more with the accompanying Tropical Wave ... normally it would not rain for much more than 12 hours and it is rare for these to cause flight disruption although Waves can bring squally conditions.

The Storm risk is decreasing as this system eases further north as conditions are not currently that good for it to develop on a more northerly track by the time it reaches the Caribbean although it would bring strong winds and rain ... if the track stays the same the Storm will go well north of Tobago and possibly weaken ... if it kept a more southerly track (which looks unlikely right now) it could be very dangerous.

Developments such as this are very unpredictable so early in a Hurricane Season ... all have to be treated with caution but not panic.

I will keep posting updates.

Regards

INVEST 92

I have just realised that I should put some kind of reference to these potential developments otherwise we will get confused.

The current system has been called 'Invest 92' by the NOAA and they currently give it a 50% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or named Storm in the next 48 hours.

The system is now around 10 - 12 degrees latitude and this indicates to me that it is continuing to move towards a very dry area that could inhibit development ... the best chance of development is to stay on a more southerly track (but I still think this is unlikely and this would be a concern for Tobago).

Of some interest is a very strong looking Tropical Wave just behind Invest 92 which is more likely to bring wet conditions to Tobago at the weekend.

Regards

INVEST 92 UPDATE

This system has now been pulled to pieces by wind shear and dry air ... it took the wrong direction for had it stayed on a more southerly course it would have been an entirely different matter.

The wind shear has done such a good job that Invest 92 is unlikely to be much more than a line of squally showers as it reaches the northern Lesser Antilles tomorrow.

This system did come close to developing at one stage and the fact that it even featured at this early stage of the season (and at such a low latitude) serves up an indication that 2010 will be an active season.

Regards

INVEST 92 UPDATE

These systems are full of surprises ... Invest 92 has regathered some potency and, although the NOAA says there is a low risk of development, it may feel like a Tropical Depression for those that experience it's very heavy rains and strong gusty winds.

The system is very large and is beginning to bring bad weather to a large area from Barbados northwards up to the Virgin Islands ... significant rainfall can be expected in these areas for the next 24 - 48 hours ... Puerto Rico and Haiti seem to be next in line.

I am interested to see how this system reacts to the even warmer sea temperatures of the Caribbean as, although other factors have combined to restrict development, the warmth of the sea is the main fuel for development.

Tobago and Grenada have a small risk of catching a few heavy showers from this over the next 48 hours.

Regards

Trinidad experiences hot sun today, no rain in sight at all (so far).

Paul, it seems you are LONGING for a system to develop, for scientific reasons i guess

Ah tellin' yuh, we doh' need dat atall boy !!

I never mentioned Trinidad ... why would I do that?

Regards

TROPICAL STORM ALEX

The first named storm of the season, Alex, formed just off the coast of Belize over the weekend and brough very heavy rain to the region as it weakened over the mainland.

Alex is now over warm Gulf waters and is expected to strengthen to Hurricane status as it moves towards northern Mexico. There does not appear to be a risk to the Oil affected areas but the swells produced by Alex could unsettle the work carried out on the barriers.

Alex was formed out of the strong Tropical Wave that passed Tobago last week and brought significant rainfall to most of the Caribbean.

Regards

ALEX UPDATE

TS Alex is getting very slow and very big.

The Storm is shifting more to the north and putting Texas at threat. I reckon that Hurricane status will be achieved but hurricane conditions will affect only a small area ... the main threat is rainfall. The only doubt about Alex reaching hurricane status is the very slow progress of the Storm, the churning of the sea brings cooler waters to the surface so unless Alex puts a little business into progress then the Storm could choke itself to death ... but that's unlikely.

Elsewhere ... I am pleased to see a huge swathe of dry air moving across the Atlantic behind the next Tropical Wave ... although the Tropical Wave could bring some rain towards the end of this week it should introduce some nice calm weather for Tobago and the rest of the Caribbean for next week.

Regards

Alex is now history but it was a very large storm that caused significant flooding in Mexico and Texas and loss of life ... the strongest Hurricane to develop at this stage of the Hurricane season for many years.

We now have a system just to the south of Jamaica that the models are watching and another system just off the southern US coast ... there appears little chance of development but the first system I mentioned does look quite lively and will bring alot of rain to Jamaica and possibly Mexico (again).

Elsewhere and in the Atlantic there is nothing sinister to worry about.

Regards

21ST JULY 2010


A large area of very heavy rain is affecting the whole of the Eastern Caribbean, including Tobago.

At the northern end of this Tropical Wave there are signs of Tropical Storm development near Puerto Rico ... this could be the second named Storm (Bonnie) of this season and this could go on to affect the Dominican and Haiti.

Tobago will have a day of heavy rain today.

So far this season, there have not been as many named Storms as expected although the season's peak is expected to be August and September, however, it has certainly been quite a 'wet' wet season so far.

Regards

So true Paul. Almost constant rain since early this morning. Solid gray skies. Yesterday threatened but didn't really rain much.

Loving the liquid sunshine here in the Rain Room.

Hugh

Concur with Hugh, raining heavily in the Arnos Vale area all night and still going strong. Looks island wide, very overcast. Maybe a day of cards, scrabble, books and of course Carib!!! Hard life

Hi Simon and Hugh and thanks for the feedback ...

It looks OK right now but the ITCZ is smack bang over Tobago so the risk of the sudden onset of rain is now very high.

There is a large pulse of heavy rain 100 miles to the east but this can dissipate as quickly as it develops. If it gets to Tobago without breaking up I would say it will arrive by this evening (Tobago time).

Regards

Good morning Paul,

Very high humidity this morning, blue sky one minute, then clouds, occasional passing sprinkles. Thunderheads drifting in from the east. Relieved somewhat by periodic breezes. Just another rainy season day in Tobago.

I will try to update later and I'm sure Simon will chime in between Caribs.

Hugh