Located just 11° north of the equator, Tobago enjoys a tropical climate with bright sunshine all year round. The average daytime temperature is 29°C (83°F), with normal maximums in the low to mid-30s. The northeast trade winds cool the island so effectively that air-conditioning is often not the critical essential that visitors might imagine. In fact, air-conditioning is the exception rather than the rule in older properties as their location was invariably chosen to take maximum advantage of the prevailing winds.
Tobago has two seasons. The Dry Season runs between December and May and is normally dry and sunny, although rain can be experienced, particulary overnight and just before dawn. The Wet Season is sometimes known as the Hurricane Season and runs between June and November. Although temperatures are fairly consistent throughout the year, changes in the direction and strength of the winds make the summer months feel hotter than the winter months.
Tobago lies outside the main hurricane belt. Hurricanes do not form at latitudes lower than 10 degrees north or south. Tobago also has fewer autumn storms than the more northerly islands. Prior to Hurricane Flora in 1963, Tobago hadn't experienced a hurricane for a hundred years. Hurricane Ivan, in 2004, uprooted a few trees but caused no major structural damage on the island. All the Caribbean islands to the north of Tobago have regular storms and hurricanes.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature (°C) | 29 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 29 |
| Temperature (°F) | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 88 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 88 | 87 | 87 | 85 |
| Sunshine | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Rainfall (mm) | 71 | 43 | 31 | 46 | 112 | 254 | 249 | 239 | 183 | 178 | 198 | 147 |
| Rainfall (inches) | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 10 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 5.8 |
We extend our deepest gratitude to Paul Tallet, a regular visitor to Tobago, for his weekly weather forecasts. Paul is an amateur weather enthusiast who does his best to provide a simple guide to the Tobago weather outlook each week. It is therefore only fair to state the disclaimer that neither Paul, nor this website, can guarantee the accuracy of these weather reports.
Tobago lies outside the main hurricane belt, so hurricanes are not a major issue, normally. However, hurricanes further north can affect the island. So, Paul also provides regular warning and updates on impending storm conditions.
Normal weather reports will be found in the Liquid Sunshine topic of our forum. Hurricane warnings can be found in the Hurricane Season topic of the forum. The most recent updates are provided below.
Sunday, 13 October 2019, 11:24am
WEATHER ... 13TH OCTOBER 2019
Tobago's soaking last week was generally blamed on the ITCZ but the real culprit was a disturbance running along a vigorous tropical wave that has moved on to the western Caribbean. This is proving to be an even more potent threat to Honduras and Belize this week. The reason why this persisted over Tobago for so long was because strong shear was attacking the system from the opposite (west) direction. For the rain clouds this is like wading through thick mud.
As tropical waves make their progress they often create a kink in the ITCZ and of course this system has pulled the ITCZ northwards and therefore I think the ITCZ is more relevant for the week ahead than it was last week.
ITCZ = Unpredictable. It could be calm or there could be raging thunderstorms and in these situations for example, Tobago could be basking in sunshine while 4 inches of rain could be falling over Trinidad. Add another 2 tropical waves on their way and the weather could become very complicated in mid-week. The 2nd of these 2 waves has formed a depression and, as already explained, has kinked the ITCZ.
So, the week ahead is very difficult to predict but I am expecting Wednesday will bring the highest risks of persistent rain as the 2nd tropical wave moves through. However the 1st tropical wave could bring some rain overnight tonight and into Monday.
Thursday, 17 October 2019, 9:11pm
GETTING INTERESTING AGAIN
I will start with Tobago and finish with the tropical depression (16) in the Gulf.
If we go back to my Liquid Sunshine post last Sunday then that is what is happening for Tobago although I got the timing wrong by about 12 - 18 hours ... it's hard being a weather enthusiast !
A strong tropical wave is now affecting all of the windward islands with plenty of heavy rain. Earlier this week the NHC issued advisories on this system as a potential storm but that lasted no more than 36 hours. So this is reverting to what I predicted originally.
In the Gulf
This is a big storm and probably big enough to stop it from developing into a hurricane. The main concern is the rain and it's potential status as Tropical Storm Nestor is academic, even though I know the potential status can excite people for all the wrong reasons.
So ... lots of rain is likely for Alabama and Florida this weekend. Flooding is certain and there could be some pretty big storm surges along coastlines.
I will post updates if there are any surprises.