UPDATE ... 18TH JUNE 2008 ... 0800 BST
RAIN RISK INCREASES
Plumes of moisture moving off Venezuela have increased the showery activity over Tobago this week beyond what I had expected.
Further heavy rain is expected later this week on Thursday/Friday when another active Tropical Wave passes. This Wave seems to be forming a depression and there is a low risk of development. It is hit and miss as to which Islands will get the brunt of this weather.
It seems to me that any potential for development at this point of the 2008 Hurricane Season, like last year, is just to the east of the southern windward islands and to the extreme west of the Caribbean ... last week's wave died out as soon as it had passed the Windwards but, to be fair, there was alot of Saharan dust and wind shear in the way as the associated depression moved north.
So here's looking at Thursday and I will further updates if anything changes.
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