2008 Hurricane Season

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE ON TS OMAR ... 14TH OCTOBER 2008 ... 1900 BST


Omar is getting very organised and his centre is becoming much more nicely defined as the outer rain bands begin to detach.

So the main area of rain is now going to concentrate around Omah's centre and this is a typical sign of strengthening ... he is increasingly showing the characteristics of an organised Storm and likely a hurricane (later) as he moves over the Virgin Islands and neighbouring Islands.

The detaching rain bands still contain heavy rain and these are unlikely to follow Omar's course which is starting to take the north east route that the models have been predicting.

As the outer rainbands detach from the centre of the Storm they will begin to weaken but it still looks quite possible that Grenada, Tobago, Trinidad (and increasingly likely that all the Islands to the north on the Windward side) will get significant rainfalls over the next 2 or 3 days.

Don't forget that these events do not have to have the status of a Hurricane or Tropical Storm to cause damage and the whole of the Windward side of the Caribbean is at high risk of extreme weather conditions of some kind or another for the next 2 to 3 days.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TS OMAR UPDATE ... 14TH OCTOBER 2008 ... 2245 BST

TS Omar is turning into a bit of a problem ... it is evident to me that the central business has been getting it's act together and possibly is already a hurricane, coupled with the fact that the NHC don't often get too excited in their predictions ... erm ... they seem very excited!!

Omar has produced rainfall on a massive scale around the southern Caribbean and bands of rainfall are peeling off this system, particularly towards the east, as it gears up for an assault on the Northern Windwards.

The effects of Omar are going to be widespread ... heavy rain and flooding on a wide scale for vitrually all of the eastern Caribbean and the prospects of Category 3 or 4 Hurricane conditions anywhere between Puerto Rico and Monserrat ... dare I say Category 5?

Omar is still slipping south east to east before he is expected to switch north east ... the more this 'slippage' continues then the more Islands to the south and east will find themselves at risk of a dangerous Hurricane experience.

Tobago should get some more rain at the very least.

The only good news ... Omar is slow moving right now and dumping cold rain and churning up the warm seas beneath him ... this could have the effect of cooling him down a little ... to be a Major Hurricane, he needs to get a move on and start sucking up some warmer seas ... the only hope that the Northern Windwards Islands have is that Omar keeps a slow pace and starves himself.

The Windwards should be prepared and expect the worst for Wednesday and Thursday ... rain everywhere else.

This is shaping up to be quite an event and I hope all the Windwards take note and take care.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE OMAR? ... 15TH OCTOBER 2008 0120 BST


I am not waiting up anymore ... Omar will be a hurricane by morning and I am not waiting up for some aircraft to drop another dropsonde into it to make it official.

Anyone operating on anything like brain stem material will see from the sat loops that Omar is developing into a very intense Storm that could bring considerable problems to the North Eastern Caribbean and possibly further south if he does not start his expected track towards the north east.

Omar is dangerous ... The track takes Omar across many small Island communities that could be wiped out if he reaches major hurricane status ... I recommend evacuation or action to safeguard lives from any small Island as far north as Puerto Rico and as far south as St Lucia (possibly further south) ... get out while you can or take/build/dig/find shelter and plan for 48 hours or more ... Omar has been messing about on his track and is very unpredictable ... in terms of direction and strength (i.e.; there is no knowledge) as he continues to slip east ... the prediction models are making constant adjustments.

Omar is going anywhere right now.

Don't wait for the final warnings and take precautions now and don't give Omar the benefit of the doubt.

Tobago looks OK ... but there is likely to be alot of rain by tomorrow.

I am tired of tracking this thing and going to bed ... I hope I am wrong when I look at the situation tomorrow morning. I hope people are watching this one.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE OMAR UPDATE ... 15TH OCTOBER 2008 ... 1030 BST

At last Omar seems to be getting onto the forcasted track and, as I expected, he has strengthened into a Hurricane although I would argue that hurricane status was probably achieved last night.

Strengthening has slowed a little and I would guess this is because Omar has not moved much and his winds and heavy rain will have cooled the seas below him. As Omar speeds up towards the north east there could be some rapid strengthening as he moves over warmer seas ... a likely Category 2 and possibly 3 by the time he passes over the northern Windward Islands tonight and tomorrow ... I hope no stronger than 2.

Heavy rain is still falling over the Dutch Antilles and Omar's outer rain bands have spread out over a very wide area, particularly to the east ... as I thought yesterday, even Tobago is getting scattered showers from Omar and there could be more to come.

Also expect to see some heavy sea swells on the Caribbean Sea facing coasts of all Islands.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE OMAR ... UPDATE ... 16TH OCTOBER 2008 ... 0015 BST

Bit quiet tonight on the forum eh? Perhaps you are all watching Omar on the sat loops

Anyway ... Omar is strengthening again and should reach Cat 2 or (hopefully not) Cat 3 by the time he crosses the northern Windwards (or Leewards as they put it).

Omar looks a little messy as there is some dry air and light shear puncturing the north west quadrant and of course the shear is carrying away the outer rainbands to the east and south east.

But Omar is very dangerous and I hope all those in his path have taken the necessary precautions ... the next 12 to 24 hours are looking bad for the Northern Windwards and alot can happen before this Hurricane crosses over them ... expect the worst is the best attitude.

There is not much more to say, apart from the fact that i suspect Omar could be the next autumnal storm for the UK next week ... regardless of that, I hope all take care.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE OMAR UPDATE ... 16TH OCTOBER 2008 ... 1030 BST

Omar did reach Category 3 and became a very powerful and deadly Hurricane as he moved over the Northern Windward Islands.

The good news is that it looks like his track was between the Islands and with a rather small band of Hurricane force winds at the centre of Omar it is hoped that few of the Islands experienced the worst of Omar.

The other bit of good news is that Omar has sped up and is now already moving away and out into the Atlantic ... his remnant Low will probably attack the UK next Monday or Tuesday.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE OMAR UPDATE ... 16TH OCTOBER 2008 ... 1745 BST

Hmm ... Omar's track mean't that he was very kind to the Islands, considering that he nearly reached Category 4 strength ... only St Croix apparently experienced hurricane strength winds ... the rain will have caused problems in some areas.

As quickly as Omar stengthened he has now almost collapsed and I doubt he is a Hurricane anymore.

But there is a sting in the tail ... Omar is trailing a long band of heavy thunderstorms across the rest of the Windwards ... the end of this tail could affect Tobago in the next 12 hours.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE OMAR UPDATE ... 16TH OCTOBER 2008 ... 2000 BST

Omar looks finished ... never seen such a strong hurricane get broken up so quickly before.

Still there is remnant heavy rain around.

Looking at some reports on the Caribbean Hurricane Network ... many, particularly from Antigua, report spectacular lightening storms ... there are also comments from some Islands of how weird the weather is (coming from west to east which is rare).

Reports of very heavy and damaging surf are coming from St Vincent & the Grenadines ... I mentioned this a couple of days ago ... Islands need to watch Caribbean Sea facing coasts that are exposed to these swells ... get the boats in and prepare for some heavy stuff ... beach erosion could occur in some places and this includes Tobago.

It's reminds us how widespread the effects of a Hurricane can be and that greater damage can actually occur many miles away from the centre of these storms.

Regards

[Lisa Keith]

Hiya Paul,

I bought fish from the fishermen at Mt Irvine this evening (which was delicious!)- and, exactly as you say, the swells were definitely higher than usual.

Lisa.

[Paul Tallet]

Thanks Lisa.

Now that Omar has gone ... a fresh disturbance has developed along the next Tropical Wave about 600 miles to the south east of Tobago.

The NHC have rated the chances of development into a Tropical Depression at 20% so the risks are low ... regardless, this will bring some heavy rain and strong winds to Tobago within the next 48 hours.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE PALOMA ... 8TH NOVEMBER 2008 ... 1030 GMT


That will teach me ... took my eye off the weather for a few days and BANG!! ... A vicious looking Category 4 Hurricane has quickly formed and it is still strengthening.

But Hurricane Paloma will be short-lived, as quickly as it has developed, the massive wind shear in it's path to the north will take it apart.

Unfortunately though, before the shear sets in, Cuba will take a direct hit ... I think this is the 5th Storm that Cuba has been associated with in the current season ... Paloma will be much worse but Cuba has a knack of dealing with this better than anywhere else ... nevertheless, this one could be devastating.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE PALOMA ... UPDATE ... 8TH NOVEMBER 2008 ... 1230 GMT

A catastrophic event could be unfolding here as Paloma seems to be strengthening considerably ... the strongest sustained winds are now reportedly at 140 mph although they extend only 30 miles out from the centre ... this is not far off a devastating Category 5.

The main worry is for the small Cayman Islands that seem to be in the direct path of the centre of Paloma, then it's Cuba tonight.

Here's hoping that the strong wind shear to the north kicks in sooner rather than later ... this is a very dangerous Hurricane.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

HURRICANE PALOMA ... UPDATE ... 8TH NOVEMBER 2008 ... 2115 GMT

The wind speed has increased further to 145mph but there is clear evidence from the satloops that the northern part of the storm is being sheared away and therefore I sense that Paloma has reached the peak of it's intensity ... it could not come soon enough.

It will take at least 24 hours for the strong wind shear to rip Paloma apart, coupled with the effects of moving over the land mass of Cuba.

Expect massive damage to the south coast of Cuba in the next 12 hours ... hopefully not much loss of life as Cuba has an excellent track record of dealing with these situations.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

IS THIS THE END?

As the remnants of Paloma get trashed by an increasing wind shear over Cuba I am sensing this could be my last active post on the Hurricane 2008 season thread.

Wind shear (storm killer) seems to be apparent across most of the Caribbean. There have been no Tropical Waves developing for nearly 3 weeks in the Atlantic. The only prospect of development can be in the more temperate areas of the Atlantic or something borne out of the Caribbean (like Paloma) but only if the wind shear dies down.

It seems unlikely so hopefully this is my last post in this thread.

2008 was not as bad as predicted overall but it was very bad for Cuba, the Caymans and Haiti.

Lets hope that the energy that was burned out by the Storms of this season will bring a tranquil dry season to all until June 2009, when it all starts over again.

Regards

[Steve Wooler]

Let's hope you are right, Paul - and on behalf of myself, and all our readers I'm sure, thank you for your diligence this summer. Well done!

[Paul Tallet]

Aw shucks Steve.

It's a pleasure ... a release ... no we don't want to go there

Kindest Regards

[Paul Tallet]

bttt

[Paul Tallet]

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