LIQUID SUNSHINE

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 2ND APRIL 2012 ... 1645 BST

Well ... the weather was excellent during February but it seems that a period of unsettled conditions has set in during March and I cannot see this clearing up.

Of course there are going to be nice sunny days but the general situation represents a higher than average rainfall risk for as long as this persistent low pressure system sits over the south American mainland pumping moisture northwards.

The southern Caribbean has had poor weather overall in March and this moisture occasionally extends further north as high as Puerto Rico.

So whilst Tobago gets some good sunny days there will be random days of rain ... this is the trend for now.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ...15TH APRIL 2012 ... 1000 BST

There has been a battle going on between the Atlantic trade weather and the very moist depressions forming over South America.

Over the last month this battle has been won and lost by both sides over the south Caribbean.

Right now the trades are just winning and bringing reasonable amounts of sunshine and showers to Tobago and the rest of the south Caribbean but, from time to time, rainfall amounts can increase as plumes of moisture move north off the mainland.

Incidentally, there is a rare trough moving through the central Caribbean this weekend and this could pull some rainfall up over the next 2 days although exactly when and where the rainfall can occur is very difficult to forecast.

But that's the general situation.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

MID WEEK ALERT ... 19TH APRIL 2012 ... 1830BST

The southern influence is winning and stacks of rainfall is building up, not just over the southern Caribbean but, over the Caribbean as a whole.

It is difficult to predict where the highest levels of rainfall will occur but there is a high risk for all areas (including Tobago) of localised flooding over the next 48 hours at least.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 21ST APRIL 2012 ... 1115 BST

Rainfall continues to affect the south east Caribbean today.

The cause is a depression north of the Caribbean that is sucking moisture up from the South American mainland.

This depression will move away over the next 2/3 days and allow trades to set in again.

So expect a gradual improvement in the weather in Tobago this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 28TH APRIL 2012 ... 0915 BST

As predicted, the weather has improved over Tobago and the south east Caribbean over the last week as strong trades have set in bringing fresher conditions from the Atlantic.

It's not been as nice in the western Caribbean with very heavy rainfall affecting many areas and this is likely to continue for a few more days.

Expect Tobago's more reasonable weather to continue this week with mostly sunshine and showers but there are a few troughs skating across the Atlantic that could pep up the showers from time to time.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE ... 3rd MAY 2012 ... 1800 BST

I won't be able to do the weekly update this weekend so here is an early update.

Moisture is spreading over the Caribbean and particularly the south east ... the trades are not going to shift it so expect a wet period from now, through the weekend and into early next week ... Tobago has already has some rain but there is an area of heavy and persistent rain moving in from the south east.

There could be some flooding, especially in Trinidad so be careful on remote routes in hilly areas ... there could be landslides too.

There should be some sunny interludes but I sense it is more of the rain than sun until early next week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

RAIN UPDATE ... 7TH MAY 2012 ... 0045 BST

I predicted that there would be alot of rain over the last 5 days.

This rain will move away by midweek but, right now, very heavy rain is setting in across the south and eastern Caribbean.

T&T do not seem to be at as much risk as the islands to the west and north but some very intense pulses of rainfall are developing over Venezuela and these could affect T&T overnight ... I would say that Trinidad could take the worst of this but it is too difficult to predict exactly where the heaviest rain will fall and for how long.

So I can only simply recommend that everyone in T&T is prepared for the prospect of some heavy and prolonged downpours that could cause flooding and possible landslides over the next 24 hours.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 13TH MAY 2012 ... 1100 BST

My prediction that the rainfall would clear earlier this week was not entirely correct ... the fresh trades are moving in rather slowly but a new depression has developed over South America and this has produced some fresh pulses of moisture to push north over the south and eastern Caribbean.

As with a few weeks ago there will be some considerable doubt over the rainfall situation as the weather from the south west fights the trades from the north and east and, of course, where you have 2 weather systems converging it can produce alot of rain.

I am now cautiously optimistic of clearer weather setting in and weather conditions will be very localised (i.e.; it could be raining in Grenada all day and sunny all day in Tobago and vice versa). So very unpredictable for the next week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ...22ND MAY 2012 ... 0700 BST


Hmmm ... Looks like the Hurricane season has started early.

Tropical Storm Alberto formed over the weekend off the coast of South Carolina, US and has now been downgraded to a Tropical Depression ... minimal trouble from this Storm and this is not necessarily an indication that it will be a highly active Hurricane Season.

Closer to the Equator (and Tobago) 2 Tropical Waves have formed along the ITCZ. The first one will arrive in the eastern Caribbean around Thursday.

It is currently relatively clear around Tobago and there are some heavy seas being whipped up by strong trades in the south east Caribbean ... this may affect Tobago but rainfall should be restricted to showers and there should be good spells of sunshine until the end of this week (maybe Thursday) when the first Tropical Wave moves in ... this will bring a higher risk of rain for a couple of days.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

START OF THE WET SEASON

The wet (or hurricane) season has started early this year with 2 names Storms that have already affected the eastern US.

Tobago has had a rather wet month (May) with low pressure to the south west over Venezuela pushing plumes of moisture north eastwards over the Island. There have been drier periods when the trade winds have managed to break through.

Now ... Tobago is being affected by a Tropical Wave, there have been several of these over the last 2 weeks and there are 3 active Tropical Waves from the Caribbean and across to Africa.

The current Wave is bringing persistent heavy rain to Tobago plus the chance of some windy conditions although this should clear up by the end of this weekend before another Wave arrives towards the middle of next week.

I am setting up the Hurricane 2013 post shortly in which I will report on any threat I see brewing in the Tropical Atlantic ... the 2 early storms this year are not necessarily an indication that there will be alot of hurricanes this season. The NHC is predicting an average season.

It is important to remember that hurricanes affecting Tobago are very rare however some of the Tropical Waves that pass over Tobago go on to form hurricanes further west in the Caribbean. These Tropical Waves can bring localised extreme weather so I take them just as seriously as hurricanes.

I am hoping for a quiet season.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 9TH JUNE 2012 ... 1200 BST

The weather is reasonable over Tobago at this time but there is plenty of moisture about as the ITCZ nudges north ... the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) is a constant band of low pressure that circles the earth around the equator.

Typically it moves north of the equator from June to November each year and this (typically!) increases the chance of rainfall ... hence we call this the rainy season.

Within the ITCZ the weather is very unpredictable ... it is normally calm but rainfall can spawn anywhere within the zone at very short notice and,of course, many Tropical Waves get some of their energy from the ITCZ and a minority become Tropical Storms that spin off to the north west.

As I said in last week's post, Tobago is closer to the ITCZ than the rest of the Caribbean and although this can bring wet weather from time to time most of the Storm activity passes to the north of Tobago (i.e.; Tobago gets fewer Storms but there can be wet periods).

In a way, the ITCZ protects Tobago from most Storms but the cost of this can be some quite wet weather at times.

The next Tropical Wave is due to arrive late Sunday into Monday so the weather should be reasonable this week but with a higher chance of rain for a couple of days early this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 17TH JUNE 2012 ... 1000 BST

Last week was a little wetter than I expected but conditions in Tobago are much better now as a plume of dry Saharan dust moves into the eastern Caribbean.

The central Caribbean is very wet with the Tropical Wave that brought rain to Tobago earlier in the week and a Hurricane is affecting Mexico's west coast.

Tobago should have fine weather conditions this week with the exception of increased shower activity around Tuesday/Wednesday as the next Tropical Wave moves in although this Wave looks rather weak.

Enjoy the fine weather.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEEKLY UPDATE ... 22ND JUNE 2012 ... 1515 BST

An early update this week as I have places to go and people to upset this weekend

The last week has been very nice for Tobago and the south east Caribbean and I am confident that this will continue into next week. A Tropical Wave is due to arrive around Monday/Tuesday but this is embedded in dry air and should only pep up any localised showers as it passes through.

Elsewhere in the Caribbean it has not been pretty with the Tropiucal Wave that affected Tobago the week before producing very heavy rain in the central Caribbean and now Mexico and Cuba ... some places are getting a thorough drenching and there are signs that this disturbed area of weather could produce 'Debby' ... the first named Storm to form in the Caribbean this year.

Of course, the last week also saw the 3rd named storm and first Hurricane 'Chris' form way out in the mid Atlantic. Chris is now falling apart so no concerns.

It reminds me that I should start up the 'Hurricane 2013' thread !!

So to sum up ... bad weather in the west and central areas of the Caribbean with the risk of Storm formation this weekend into next week near Mexico ... good weather to the eastern Caribbean with a chance of increased showers around Monday.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 8TH JULY 2012 ... 1000 BST

It's safe to say that Tobago and most of the Caribbean is having better weather than the UK and US for the time of year with violent derechos forming in the US over the last week and a nasty supercell battering the north east of the UK before the deluge over the last few days.

By comparison the Tropics are rather quiet although the usual procession of Tropical Waves are on the way.

Fair weather is over Tobago this weekend thanks to the influence of Saharan Dust and this is generally the trend for the rest of this week, but there could be a wet period on Tuesday/Wednesday as a small depression, that is currently embedded in the ITCZ, arrives. This depression is at 45 degrees west and the NHC are not monitoring it.

There are no signs of storm development elsewhere for the Caribbean.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 16TH JULY 2012 ... 1200 BST


It is very quiet in the tropical Atlantic with no Tropical Waves although there are Storms over Africa. But even these would struggle to make much progress with the amount of Saharan Dust in the atmosphere.

It's looking typically 'dry season' this week for Tobago and most of the Caribbean ... there will be some rain as always but expect a week of fair weather.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 24TH JULY 2012 ... 1115 BST

This is becoming a very 'dry' wet season for most of the Caribbean although Tobago, being to the extreme south, could catch some heavy showers this week with the close proximity of the ITCZ.

The weather is very unpredictable close to the ITCZ with thunderstorms brewing up quite suddenly and randomly.

Expect high levels of humidity, hot sunshine and the occasional heavy rain break this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER THIS WEEK ... 30TH JULY 2012 ... 1000 BST

A Tropical Wave is bringing heavy rain to the eastern Caribbean. Most of this weather is to the north of Tobago with Tobago enjoying mostly sunshine and a few sharp showers.

The weather for the rest of the week is looking fair but we need to keep an eye out for trouble brewing near the equator that I expect to reach the Caribbean by the weekend.

A depression has formed and the NHC are issuing watches on the system which is at a very low latitude ... the weather models (that have improved in their predictions considerably in recent years) are all predicting that it will track to the north of Tobago with just one predicting a track similar to Hurricane Ivan that passed about 10 miles to the north coast of Tobago in 2004.

Early days but we must remember that Hurricanes can have an impact on land even 100's of miles away from their centre ... I will be posting on the Hurricane 2012 topic should there be any developments.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

EARLY WARNING OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

Further to yesterday's weekly update I have been posting on the 'Hurricane 2012' thread about the potential for Stormy weather this weekend.

Please follow the 'Hurricane 2012' for further updates.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 10TH AUGUST 2012 ... 0930 BST

The wet season has now got going with unsettled conditions in all the tropics of the northern hemisphere.

A procession of Tropical disturbances are forming and Tobago can expect to be affected indirectly by one of these this weekend.

The ITCZ is also close again and this makes conditions unpredictable.

So the next week looks like giving a high risk of rainfall this weekend and, although there should be plenty of sunshine from time to time, there is a risk of frequent showers during next week.

Please refer to 2012 Hurricane Season posts for more detail on any disturbances.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 17TH AUGUST 2012 ... 0930 BST

As predicted, last weekend proved to be a wash-out and Trinidad experienced the worst flooding as Andy K indicated in his posts in the '2012 Hurricane Season'.

I have also seen a report that 2 people lost their lives in last weekend's rains which, while regrettable, goes to show that all Tropical Waves, Depressions and Storms (even if not a direct hit) should be taken very seriously (i.e.; it does not have to be a Hurricane).

This week around the Atlantic Tropics we have Gordon that I expect to form into a Hurricane in the next 24 hours. Gordon is going to affect the Azores by Sunday and then there are prospects that Gordon could be a rather potent extra-tropical Storm in Europe by mid week ... as if the UK isn't getting enough rain today.

A new development is arising in the Gulf of Mexico although this may be shortlived as it is quite close to land.

Tobago's interests should be on 2 more Tropical Waves in the Atlantic. The first one will arrive this weekend and it is a rather weak affair and may not be noticed but it could bring a burst of heavy showers and windy conditions ... this will be localised and won't affect all areas of the Windwards.

The second Tropical Wave is carrying plenty of moisture and I reckon this is going to bring quite alot of rain towards midweek ... there has already been plenty of rain so caution is advised particularly for the flood-hit areas in Trinidad.

Then there is a third development behind this Wave just coming off the western coast of Africa. It is too early to know if it will follow the path of Gordon or remain an open Wave ... if it goes anywhere this will be a feature to report on for next weekend.

The Hurricane Season is now peaking towards September and so far so good by comparison to some other seasons.

I will post details of any Storms on the '2012 Hurricane Season' forum.

Regards