el nino event - a question for Paul

[Tony Ennis]

I believe a mild el nino event is forcast for the turn of the year. Is there any correalation of data that indicates the effect on the islands during an el nino. It surely must effect the weather significantly either with long settled periods or intense rainfall!!

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Tony

Sorry for the delay in replying.

El Nino events have bigger impacts for the more temperate zones (i.e.; where the seasons change all round the year).

Obviously, any dramatic temperature changes in the sea temperatures can have negative effects on sea life, particularly coral, in tropical zones.

However when warmer sea temperatures are distributed around the world through the Ocean currents this can have a more marked effect on the normal weather trends.

This can either have a direct influence such as a warmer than average winter ... but if the temperature of the oceans is sufficient to influence the normal airflow patterns then very unusual weather events can occur, such as an extremely cold or wet winter.

I hope this helps.

Regards

[Tony Ennis]

Thanks Paul

Since I posted the above some internet research concluded that a medium to strong el nino has a moderating influence on rainfall from the southern carribean to north east Brazil. Heres hoping anyway as Im finally going to get there in December !!