We extend our deepest gratitude to Paul Tallet, a regular visitor to Tobago, for his weekly weather forecasts. Paul is an amateur weather enthusiast who does his best to provide a simple guide to the Tobago weather outlook each week. It is therefore only fair to state the disclaimer that neither Paul, nor this website, can guarantee the accuracy of these weather reports.
Tobago lies outside the main hurricane belt, so hurricanes are not a major issue, normally. However, hurricanes further north can affect the island. So, Paul also provides regular warning and updates on impending storm conditions.
Normal weather reports will be found in the Liquid Sunshine topic of our forum. Hurricane warnings can be found in the Hurricane Season topic of the forum. The most recent updates are provided below.
Sunday, 26 May 2019, 10:26am
WEATHER ... 26TH MAY 2019
HEAVY SHOWERS WHERE AND WHEN THEY HAPPEN
The weather is very mobile this week.
Low pressure is positioned over Columbia and is responsible for the very thundery weather across the Caribbean Sea and partially responsible for feeding the high levels of warm energy moving northwards and into the central US. The central US has been having significantly extreme weather conditions over the last week or so as a result of this warm Caribbean influence.
The Columbia Low is also responsible for sending heavy showers across the southern Caribbean and to the east. Last week brought several heavy rain periods to Tobago.
This week there are 2 Tropical Waves on the way and I believe these Tropical Waves could enhance the rainfall over Tobago with the first one arriving tomorrow / Tuesday and the 2nd Wave arriving late in the week.
The upper airflow is moving from the south west to east and this could have a shearing effect on the Tropical Waves, however when one energy form meets another it can increase the rain intensity in some areas.
Next Saturday, 1st June, is the official start of this year's Wet / Hurricane season and we have already seen a short-lived Tropical Storm Andrea off the eastern coast of Florida and near Bermuda.
I have already started the 2019 Hurricane Forum so check that forum out for the latest information and speculation.
Tuesday, 21 May 2019, 10:13pm
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA
With regret, I am opening up the 2019 Hurricane Season 10 days earlier than intended.
Not that anything bad has happened ... it's the NHC's fault, designating a Tropical Storm (Andrea) off the east coast of Florida, now the ex-Tropical Storm, way out to sea and unlikely to cause any problems apart from maybe some rain and winds in Bermuda.
So as soon as the NHC start naming Storms I have no option other than to start the 2019 Hurricane Season Forum off just to be sure that the first named storm of this season gets a mention. A to Z with no gaps.
As I have indicated in the Liquid Sunshine forum over the last 2 weeks, changes are becoming very clear in the weather patterns with an early start for Tropical Waves but, most of all, is the high sea temperature. This does not mean that there will be more Storms and Hurricanes ... it means that what Hurricane and Storms that find the right dessert menu could become stronger or more extreme.
The dessert menu needs more than high sea temperatures, it needs a number of other factors such as upper atmospheric winds (going in the right direction) and instability, all of these factors need to be in place and a combination will set off big storms. A risk is a drought
Is this because of human contributions to global warming? ... No, we are just polluting and, although this is a contributing factor, it can only boost natural warming to a minor extent ... the earth has been hot and cold for thousands of years and has it's own process of handling it's temperature.
I must emphasise that Tobago rarely gets a direct hit from a major hurricane ... Tobago's experiences are often associated with Tropical Waves and the occasional developing Storm that passes or reaches Storm or Hurricane status after it has passed over Tobago.