LIQUID SUNSHINE

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 30TH OCTOBER 2016

As predicted, last week was fine apart from Tuesday/Wednesday so lets hope I get my predictions right for this week

Right now, rain is starting to fall over Tobago and tonight could be a wet night as a Tropical Wave passes by.

The rain should clear by tomorrow (Monday) morning.

The Tropical Waves are starting to diminish ... could it already be the end of the Wet Season? I don't think so.

The general situation across the whole of the Caribbean is of high moisture and humidity levels and the most prolific rainfall is saturating the north and central Caribbean ... there is nothing like the Saharan effect to temper the rains and rainfall could break out anywhere.

So, I am going for a mainly fine week for Tobago but with potential for rainfall mostly overnight with a 50% risk of longer spells of rain coming from the rainforests over South America.

On this basis there could be 2 rainy days out of 7. It's just very difficult to predict when.

So enjoy your 5 days and if you get a 6th day of sunshine even better and stop complaining!

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 6TH NOVEMBER 2016

After last week I doubt that anyone anywhere in the Caribbean will be saying the word 'drought'. It literally rained everywhere and Tobago's dose came on Friday, Saturday and now is kind of easing off.

The Saharan Dust factor is nowhere. In fact there is a depression just off the west coast of Africa blowing the Dust back over the Sahara and the Mediterranean.

But a pattern is emerging that is more typical of the dry season as High Pressure appears to be finally building over the Atlantic ... it could take some time though.

The only rain threats to Tobago are the plumes of moisture from the south and a cluster of thunderstorms to the east that may not make it.

The first half of this week up to Wednesday has a higher risk of rain but it looks more positive after that with just showers if the Atlantic High can get into it's normal position.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ...13TH NOVEMBER 2016

The transition to the dry season is still taking place very slowly as the Atlantic High builds but it is building a little too far north to stop Low Pressure forming and bringing widespread rainfall to soak the Caribbean.

Last week was a very wet week, probably the wettest of the Wet season and on Thursday, Friday and most of this weekend it rained everywhere.

Currently, High Pressure over the central US is the main influence as it pumps unusually warm air up the north west US and east into Canada, Greenland and the Arctic. A jet-stream from South America pumps low pressure and heavy moisture north eastwards between the US High and the Atlantic High, the latter of which is well to the east of it's normal position.

The rain risk for the Caribbean will remain high until the Atlantic High gets itself into it's normal mid-Atlantic position.

In addition, the low pressure could allow a Storm to develop in the south west Caribbean just off Nicaragua ... I will be watching this in the 2016 Hurricane forum if anything develops but this is not a risk to Tobago.

Tobago should be looking east to an ITCZ Trough that should arrive late Monday and this makes the risk of rain even higher with the possibility that more moisture from South America will be sucked north into the Caribbean and up the jet-stream.

Overall, a rainy week and dare I suggest an improvement after Wednesday like I did last week? I don't think so!

The best we can hope for is the Dry Season arriving on time on 1st December.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 20th NOVEMBER 2016

Tobago appears to be having a respite from the persistent rain that has fallen on and off over the last 2 weeks.

But most of the Caribbean has had this rain and we should spare a thought for the Dominican Republic where there has been loss of life, major flooding and thousands of people homeless ... it shows that it does not require Tropical Storms and Hurricanes to cause localised devastation such as this.

The general situation right now is unusual with the weather coming from the west and the south and there are strong upper airflows shearing the normal weather from the east, back to the east ... even back over Africa.

The Atlantic High is trying to build but low pressure dominates the Caribbean and this is why, with the help of the ITCZ, it has been raining. At this time of year the ITCZ should be way to the south.

The prediction for the week has to be high risk of rain although some areas of the Caribbean, including Tobago, could have a good week ... it is really difficult to know where rain will fall under current conditions, it will fall somewhere.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 27TH NOVEMBER 2016

Occasional rain is continuing to affect Tobago from the south although there is much less of it than there was over the last few weeks.

Officially, the 'wet' season ends in 3 days. In reality, the weather patterns are not yet right to welcome a 'dry' or 'high' season although it would also be wrong to assume that a dry season will yield no rain.

An abundance of low pressure fills the Northern Atlantic and the Atlantic High, that provides the strong trades most typical of dry seasons, is being pulled all over the place with weather patterns of west to east rather than the typical east to west.

Tobago is to the extreme south of the Atlantic influences and often closer to low pressure than high pressure and is more likely to fall under the influence of rain clouds generated over the rain forests of South America, more so than the Caribbean Islands further north.

So when everything breaks down and the fresh trades are not there to push away the southern influence then the risks of rainfall increase for Tobago.

So ... this week, there are 2 depressions in the mid-Atlantic and we need these to move away so that the Atlantic High can fill and extend further south to bring fresher conditions.

The risks of rain should diminish towards the end of this week and, hopefully, a pattern of sunshine and trade showers should set in.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER UPDATE ... 28TH NOVEMBER 2016

Satellite sequences are indicating to me that Tobago should be prepared for a period of potentially very heavy rain overnight tonight and possibly tomorrow.

2 Bands of rainfall have merged together over the central Caribbean and, currently, the heaviest rain is affecting the northern Windward Islands with much less severe conditions to the south of the Caribbean around Trinidad & Tobago. This area of rain is moving from west to east (which is unusual).

The intensity of the rainfall over Trinidad and Tobago is likely to increase over the next 12 hours as a plume of deep moisture moves northwards from South America and merges with the main band of rain in the Caribbean.

The combination of these areas of rainfall will produce conditions that could lead to flash flooding and a risk of landslides in hilly areas plus the risk of thunderstorms.

As always, some areas will be affected worse than others.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 4TH DECEMBER 2016

The dry (or high) season has started and this week's weather is looking a lot better than the last 5 weeks.

The Atlantic High has started to assert it's dominance but it is being squeezed by strong depressions to the north and from time to time this could set off some hefty sea swells towards the north of the Caribbean.

The current High is now moving east over North Africa but a new High is forming over the southern US and this should move into the Atlantic.

Tobago should expect a week of fair weather with the occasional showers this week. During the middle of the week there could be more showers as Low Pressure pushes the current High towards the east, but when the new High pressure gets into position towards the end of the week I would expect showers to decrease.

Overall, the seas look reasonably calm but the swell may increase by next weekend if the Atlantic High does what it is supposed to do, bringing fresh conditions with trade winds from the east.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 11TH DECEMBER 2016

The significance of this week's weather update is that it will be the last one I publish from the UK until 21/22 January 2017.

Instead, the next 5 weekly updates will be from Tobago so I will actually know when I get the forecasts wrong!

Anyway, this week looks like being a repeat of last week with alot of movement in the weather patterns north of the Tropic of Cancer and their occasional and unwelcome impact on the Tropics south of Cancer.

So, just as explained last week, the High Pressure which should be pretty much stationary is being moved to the east by active depressions and then a building High over the US moves in to replace it. There is considerable momentum to this pattern of weather that it could be a few weeks before it settles down, if at all throughout the current dry season.

It's not all bad news because the weather should be fine for Tobago with northern areas of the Caribbean most at risk from rain but Tobago should expect the occasional day or 2 of increased showery activity or occasional persistent rain with the added risk that moisture over South America can plume up when the High pressure is away.

So, this week is now fine but I expect an increasing risk of showers by midweek and then a decrease towards the weekend.

Sea swells could be quite high, between 6 and 8 feet on exposed beaches.

I have packed the Sun and I promise not to forget to bring it with me

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 20TH DECEMBER 2016 ... FROM CASTARA

Sorry I am bit late this week but I am on holiday and had some initial problems getting on the Internet. It was worth the wait because the connection speed here is much better than the speeds I get at home in the UK.

This week, so far, has been sunshine and showers (with a rather heavy one at sunset this evening).

The Atlantic High pressure seems to have finally locked itself into place and is bringing strong trade winds.

As a consequence the sea is producing larges swells bringing booming waves crashing on Castara's beach generally about 8 feet with occasional larger waves of +12 feet. This is affecting all of Tobago but the sea should calm down a little after Tuesday although the waves could still be quite heavy through the rest of the week.

Snorkeling is not going to be the highlight of the week.

All good though.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 26TH DECEMBER 2016 ... FROM CASTARA

The last week has had it's moments as the Atlantic High was pushed further and further north, decreasing pressure across the southern Caribbean and allowing rain clouds to readily form.

Up until Friday it was very showery and Saturday was mostly cloudy and with some rain.

High pressure from the US is starting to build across the Northern Caribbean and increasing the wind speed across the Central Caribbean with calm conditions setting in across the South including Tobago.

I am not sure how long the fine weather will last because there seems to be a weekly cycle of High Pressure building and receding and it is difficult to suss how much of the mucky wet stuff plumes northwards from South America will High pressure loses it's influence.

I have high confidence of good weather from now to Tuesday but my confidence decreases towards the end of the week if the Atlantic High again goes through with it's recycling.

One positive about the rain has been a few spectacular Sunsets.

The Sea is moderate to calm towards the west of Tobago but quite choppy to the east and I need it to be calm if I am to have any decent snorkelling.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 1ST JANUARY 2017 ... FROM CASTARA

As I expected, last week's weather influences for Tobago were very mobile with depressions displacing the Atlantic High and there was a fair amount of rain for Tobago from Wednesday night through to Friday night.

Things have changed now with very fair weather and cooler temperatures ... this means trades bringing fresher weather from the Atlantic. As I type this I can feel a chill in the air in comparison to the more humid conditions that sweep up north from the South American mainland when the Atlantic High is weak.

The week ahead looks good ... the mobility in the weather is continuing but the depressions look more likely to push the Atlantic High south rather than push it east ... this can, from time to time, bring more windy conditions and heavy sea conditions, however the sea is moderating and is likely to generally stay this way until next weekend when the sea swells could increase.

As always, I cannot see much further ahead but in summary I believe that the week ahead will bring fair weather with occasional showers.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 9TH JANUARY 2017 ... FROM CASTARA

Last weeks weather was good with 3 days of solid sunshine but rain affected most of Thursday and Friday. Once again, this originated from South America. Not only do you get wet but the humidity increases. The Weather improved over the weekend although some showers fell today (Sunday).

The week ahead looks similar with sunshine and showers most days but with a risk of more persistent rain from time to time so not much difference.

Sea conditions are moderate but with some occasional rollers coming in ... I am expecting the sea conditions to improve this week and become much calmer although a reduction in wind speeds mean higher humidity.

3 weeks into my holiday I can confidently say this is the rainiest holiday I have had in Tobago but then when I look at the media and see that snow is falling in California and on the Greek Islands in the Med ... what is normal?

Perhaps a blizzard should affect the UK next weekend and that could delay my flight home.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 17TH JANUARY 2017

Sorry to be late with this week's weather ... I have only just arrived home in the UK from a wetter than normal holiday in Tobago over the past 4 weeks and I am in a reflective mood.

Firstly, this week's weather ... the pressure is low with the Atlantic High being continually displaced either north or east and this has been a repetitive process. The lower the pressure then the more likely rain clouds will form. If there is no Saharan Dust influence then the chances of rain increase further.

So when the High Pressure gives way to depressions moving east across the Mid-Atlantic complications can arise, allowing the moisture over the perpetual low pressure in South America to move north and this can lead to overcast skies as a minimum and the prospect of lengthy spells of rain. In addition, because of the density of Tobago's protected rain forest it can create it's own rainfall from time to time and an example of this is a slim cloud bar that often floats over Tobago with the potential to drop rain and block the sun in areas such as Crown Point.

This cycle of weather has been taking place over the last 8 weeks or so and I have had the privilege of experiencing about 2 days of rain each week during my stay as a result of it.

As the Atlantic High rebuilds then there can be several days of virtually cloudless skies and, from my recent experiences, no showers but instead longer periods of rain when the Atlantic High's influence reduces.

So I am going to sound like a broken record and predict sunshine but don't be surprised to have a cloudy or rainy day or 2 this week.

Now my reflections ...

As I am based in the UK I use my own experience of the Caribbean Weather and refer to satellite images (not forecasts) to gain as good an impression as I can of the weather situation and my predictions are generally based on this. To be honest, it is easier to make predictions during the Hurricane Seasons as the progression of Tropical Waves moving westwards across the tropics towards the Caribbean make my life a lot easier.

In the absence of Tropical Waves during the alleged Dry Season it is much more difficult because, although the normal weather should come from the same direction on the seasonal trades, it does not always work out like that and the current situation is typical.

But I have noticed something and I have avoided comment until I am relatively certain although, to be honest, I think I made a passing remark about it 4 years ago when I experienced a spectacular Thunderstorm on Christmas Day 2013.

This was a significant Storm that caused fatalities in the Grenadines but the satellite representation showed the position of the Storm west of Grenada and I was perplexed because the canopy of the Storm was at least over the west of Tobago (i.e.; I was under it).

In subsequent years (and particularly this year) there have been odd occasions when the satellite is showing nasty green blobs of heavy rain falling over Tobago when it simply is not the case ... and the reason I know that is because I am in the middle of Tobago looking up at the sky waiting to get bonked on the head by a serious drop of rain!

So what is going on? Is the satellite imagery being overlaid incorrectly over some geographical zones?

And another thing ... the sea state. Knowing the sea state is important to me too. But there is a surfing website that was showing a distinct trend towards calm seas of between 2 and 4 feet which was maintained on their website throughout 2 days of 15 to 20 foot rollers that were battering the Caribbean coastline of Tobago last week. My predictions were in line with this website because it made sense however no one (including the NHC) was able to predict the deepening of a Depression north east of the Caribbean that pushed a swathe of rough seas southwards across all the Windward Islands.

During this period of rough seas there was a fatality near Mount Irvine when a young girl lost her life on a boat trip when the boat was overturned by the waves. Her mother survived and so did the boat operator who I understand was arrested. Both the mother and the boat operator should have known better but, for all I know, the Boat Operator could have decided it was safe to go to sea based on the website that has given out the wrong information ... if he is charged with manslaughter or whatever then I guess he could refer to a website that has given out incorrect data in his defense.

This shocked me.

In view of this, I trust that readers of my weekly Liquid Sunshine posts and those that ask specific questions in the Weather Forum will accept this post as a disclaimer that whatever I say is not guaranteed and that I am an amateur weather enthusiast doing his best to provide a simple guide to the weather situation each week.

One can only do ones best.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 22ND JANUARY 2017

The re-cycling continues as Low pressure dominates (bringing cloud and rain) before High Pressure builds (allowing trades and clearer weather with sunshine and showers).

Right now, Tobago is in the Low Pressure phase which can bring some persistent rain but this is likely to clear up within 48 hours as High Pressure builds again.

Quite simply, the weather is going in the wrong direction for this time of year. So based on a 7 day week expect 2 to 3 parts rain/cloud and 4 to 5 parts beautiful sunshine.

That seems to be the way it is for this high season.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 29th JANUARY 2017

The weather is still going in the wrong direction. The satloops indicate that there was some rain this weekend in Tobago but this has moved north over the Windward Islands.

Atlantic High is where it should be and is dragging plenty of Saharan Dust over the northern half of the Caribbean but Tobago is still under the influence of weather from the south.

So, again, fair weather should prevail but the risk of a cloudy or rainy day or 2 is high this week as it has been for the last 2 months.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 5TH FEBRUARY 2017

The weather is looking very promising this week with sunshine and showers being carried on strong trades.

There is just a small chance that a couple of weather troughs affecting the far north of the Caribbean could suck up a little moisture from South America during the middle of the week but that looks unlikely.

The strong trades will, of course, bring unsettled seas and the potential for some heavy surf particularly after Tuesday.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 12TH FEBRUARY 2017

Another week of fine weather ahead.

There is still the small risk of a wet or overcast day whenever the Atlantic High's control on the trades loosens.

Last week on Friday was an example of this.

It looks like the seas are easing up too so it looks like a week when I would like to be there.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 19TH FEBRAURY 2017

I am feeling like a scratched record ... the weather looks fine again with a 20% risk of a rainy day and a mucher higher risk of occasional showers which is very common and normally overnight.

Seas appear to be moderating.

Enjoy it if you are there.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 26TH FEBRUARY 2017

Last week looked mostly fine until the weekend when a small plume of moisture from South America brought rain to most of the south east Caribbean.

Some may have missed it and some will have had fairly persistent rain, mostly on Saturday.

This week is no different, with mainly fine weather and occasional showers but the trade winds could bring choppy seas.

Again, there is the risk of a days rain any point in the week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 5TH MARCH 2017

Based on my observations of the Sat Loops last week I think Tobago had a little more rain than I forecast as the 'dirty' weather from South America made a few appearances. It looked rather wispy so probably the rain, if any, was light with a few heavier bursts of rain here and there.

Next week's weather does not look much different. In fact it looks like the weather I had over Christmas and New Year with High pressure displaced to the east as a depression over the US moves eastwards over the Atlantic.

This depression will come no where near the Caribbean, but it's troughs will move southwards through the Windward Islands this week and this could attract some more of the 'dirty' weather off South America during this week.

The troughs will also bring stronger winds. The seas are now moderate but they could get heavy during the middle of this week and up to the weekend.

So ... 50% chance of rainfall each day this week, hopefully overnight and in the early hours.

Regards