LIQUID SUNSHINE

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER WARNING ... 16TH MAY 2013 ... 0315 BST

The first Tropical Wave of the year has formed in the Atlantic and is expected to bring the risk of heavy rain to Tobago this weekend.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 18TH MAY 2013 ... 1200 BST

It's all set to become a bit rainy over the next week.

A Tropical Wave (the first of the 2013 wet season) is approaching and this should bring some rainfall to Tobago over the next 48 hours.

The wave will also introduce a fair bit of moisture although most of this is to the south within the ITCZ ... so it's a little uncertain how far north the main areas of rain will go but Venezuela can be assured of a good soaking this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 27TH MAY 2013 ... 1800BST

It seems that the rainy season is setting in nice and early with some much needed rain.

It is currently raining heavily in Tobago and across most of the eastern Caribbean. These conditions seem set to last for a few more days so not a good week ahead for the visiting tourists.

The wet season is official from 1st June. Tropical disturbances are already occurring in the Pacific so it seems this is an early start.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 1ST JUNE 2013 ... 1100 BST

Tobago has had a very wet week and the rain has started to ease off for this weekend.

However, I sense this will be a short lived break as another Tropical Wave will move in on Sunday/Monday and this one has plenty more moisture with it.

And ... just to add more misery to all the visitors to Tobago there is a very strong Tropical Wave associated with a Depression that has just left the west coast of Africa ... this one should arrive by the end of the week.

It's 1st June ... officially the wet season and although many say that there is little difference between this and the dry season I think we can safely say it is a wet season this year.

I will be setting up the 2013 Hurricane thread as soon as any developments occur.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 9TH JUNE 2013... 0900 BST

Wet conditions continue across most of the Caribbean and the north and Florida have had Tropical Storm Andrea to contend with.

Tobago is taking a breather with some reasonable sunshine today but another Tropical Wave will arrive tonight and liklely bring further rain bringing a wet start to this week.

The rain should then ease off for a while, at least until next weekend but it's difficult to predict this with so much moisture around.

I hope it's clear by Friday.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER FROM CASTARA ,,, 15th JUNE 2013 ... 1615 TOBAGO TIME

Bloody hot, sunny, humid ... beautiful.

Looking ahead ... looking good ... no Tropical Waves expected for this coming week.

Off to get on with my holiday.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER FROM CASTARA ... 23RD JUNE 2013 ... 1615 TOBAGO TIME

Rain is arriving this evening and overnight and possibly tomorrow as a Tropical Wave moves in behind the rain.

After that we will be in the ITCZ or Monsoon Trough which is a constant area of Low Pressure that surrounds the globe.

This makes the weather unpredictable with very still conditions and high humidity levels or a thunderstorm could break out at any moment.

Another Wave will pass through towards the end of the week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER FROM CASTARA ... 28TH JUNE 2013 ... 1100 TOBAGO TIME

An early update this weekend as the thunderstorms earlier this week cut out the power periodically (and consequently the internet) and I am expecting more of this to come this weekend.

A reasonably strong Tropical Wave is approaching the eastern Caribbean for the weekend ... I expect the first rains to reach Tobago maybe this evening or for certain overnight.

This Wave is laden with heavy moisture over an expansive area and I therefore expect high volumes of rain over Saturday and into Sunday.

I guess this is an opportunity to tidy my room and settle down to a long card game.

I am hopeful of a return to good weather from Monday as Saharan Dust fills in the area behind this next Wave.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER FROM CASTARA ... 6TH JULY 2013 ... 1100 TOBAGO TIME

The last week has brought beautiful hot and sunny weather and this is likely to continue until the middle of this week.

Trouble is brewing in the mid-Atlantic and the NHC are issuing advisories on a Depression that has formed close to the equator.

If this develops and starts spinning within the next 48 hours it will likely go north and struggle with the dense Saharan Dust.

It is more likely to develop slowly and maintain it's westerly track and this raises the risk of heavy rain and thunderstorms for the south east Caribbean later this week ... there seems a small chance of development at some point over the next week but the Saharan Dust is quite prevalent and is responsible for the recent fair weather.

Nevertheless, this threat should be watched and I may post on the 2013 Hurricane thread later this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 14TH JULY 2013 ... 1400 BST

Just arrived back ... I will post some reviews in due course over the next few weeks.

Over 4 weeks I consider myself lucky to have had only 2 rainy days. Otherwise it was hot, sultry and sunny.

The 2 rainy days resulted from a Tropical Wave and Tropical Storm Chantal ... Chantal brought general cloud and some rain as the southern edge of the storm canopy just shaved the Caribbean side of Tobago, most of the thunderstorms were out to the north but it was evident from the changing wind directions that Tobago was affected to a tiny degree.

Overall I would rate the weather as the best I have experienced despite the fact that it was in the official wet season.

Right now it looks calm with a little rainfall to the south east of Tobago ... there are 2 Tropical Waves on the way that look reasonably vigorous and the first of these should bring rain by about Wednesday.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 21ST JULY 2013 ... 1100 BST

It has been interesting to return from Tobago to a UK Heatwave.

The UK has been recording similar temperatures to Tobago but you can understand why forecasters put alot of emphasis on wind chill factors as well as sun heat and humidity that can actually make the temperature feel cooler or warmer than it actually is.

Tobago has felt much hotter than the UK simply because the sun is much more powerful and the humidity is much higher and I have found it to be pleasantly cooler in the UK although, had I not spent time in Tobago beforehand, I guess I would have found the UK temperatures as uncomfortable as everyone else.

As for the week ahead, the UK's heatwave will be over by the end of the week and some big thunderstorms are likely ... as for Tobago, the heat just carries on with no significant rainfall in sight and just the occasional shower.

A weak Tropical Wave will pass Tobago (probably unnoticed) on Monday and Tuesday but it could set off a few showers.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 27TH JULY 2013 ... 1330 BST

The weather in Tobago stays reasonably calm and sunny with occasional showers.

Earlier this week the forecasters were getting excited about TS Dorian but I think this Storm will not even be Depression status by the time it reaches the Northern Windward Islands.

Some activity is moving off the west African coast and this is a week away.

So it looks like another week of good weather for Tobago.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 4TH AUGUST 2013 ... 2000 BST

Lovely weather as Saharan Dust shrouds most of the Caribbean and keeps the moisture away.

For Tobago this will last another day as a Tropical Wave speeds in from the east and arrives late Tuesday.

I doubt this Wave will produce much, maybe a few showers. So apart from this the week should bring more fair weather.

There is nothing sinister to see and I think some rain is overdue ... perhaps the later end of the rainy season will produce the rains that are needed.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 17TH AUGUST 2013 ... 1330 BST

Nice weather for now but there is a Tropical Wave on the way that will bring some rain and thunderstorms maybe as early as Monday and certainly Tuesday.

Ex Tropical Storm Erin caused a bit of an excitement amongst the Weather Models but it looks likely that this development in the mid-Atlantic will die out and possibly cause some problems in Europe as a vigorous depression.

Apart from some rain last week, Tobago's weather has been very good so far this wet season ... I don't want to tempt fate but September, October and November are the peak months for rain and I guess the rain account could be balanced during these months.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 31ST AUGUST 2013 ... 0930 BST

The wet season is hotting up as a series of strong Tropical Waves start their progress across the Atlantic.

There are only 2 right now.

The first one is about 24 hours away from the eastern Caribbean. There does not seem to be that much rain with it but that can change quite quickly. A depression along the Wave is likely to bring the main area of rain to the Islands to the north of Tobago.

Tobago can expect a few heavy showers between now and Monday.

The next Wave has moved off the African coast and looks set to develop quickly into a Tropical Depression or Storm, however the conditions in the Atlantic are not right for this one and it is likely to fizzle out and get pushed north.

In between these Waves the air is quite moist so I am expecting the week to be quite showery.

September is normally the most active month of the wet season so I reckon I will have more to write about next week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 7TH SEPTEMBER 2013 ... 0830 BST

The wet season continues to hot up and there are currently 5 Tropical disturbances across the Atlantic and in the Caribbean, yet there is still no sign of a disturbance reaching Hurricane strength,led alone major Hurricane strength.

Last week brought a surprise as the depression I forecast to affect the Islands to the north of Tobago did just that but it intensified quickly into Tropical Storm Gabrielle and then, just as quickly, got snuffed out by the disturbance following behind it.

So, as yet, nothing really serious to report on the '2013 Hurricane' post.

This week is likely to follow the same theme as last week with plenty of moisture in the atmosphere increasing the risk of showers. Most tropical Waves are developing into Depressions at the very least and this means that any persistent rainfall is more likely to be less widespread and move north of Tobago.

Lots of sunshine, but watch out for the heavy showers.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 15TH SEPTEMBER 2013 ... 1930 BST

The first Hurricane (Humberto) formed earlier this week near the Cape Verde Islands. Humberto was soon extinguished but now his remnants seem to be getting their acts together ... no threat to land as yet.

Hurricane Ingrid has formed west of Mexico and will cause problems there and along the coast of Texas over the next 48 to 72 hours.

A cluster of heavy showers are forming to the east of Tobago. These are associated with the ITCZ so they can flare up quite quickly and disappear just as fast.

Tobago has a high risk of heavy rainfall for the next 48 hours but with the wet season peaking it is very difficult to make predictions beyond that.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ...21ST SEPTEMBER 2013 ... 0930 BST

Well, it is supposed to be the peak of the Hurricane Season.

Only Mexico has really suffered with a Hurricane on it's west coast and a Tropical Storm on it's east coast, both at the same time.

Ex=Hurricane Humberto has wandered off into the North Atlantic and there are no signs of any disturbances elsewhere in the Atlantic.

There are 2 months of the season left so things can hot up yet.

There is a lack of Saharan Dust in the atmosphere so this week could be quite showery across most of the Caribbean.

The ITCZ (or Monsoon Trough) is crossing Venezuela which is close to Tobago so, like last week, the weather is going to be unpredictable with the possibility of heavy showers breaking out randomly pretty much anywhere.

Otherwise it looks like it will be reasonably sunny but humid.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 28TH SEPTEMBER 2013 ... 1230 BST


There is still no significant threat to the Caribbean from Tropical Disturbances although there is one that looks like it will swing north of the Caribbean if it develops ... if it does not develop then it will be widespread rain for the northern half of the Windwards and Florida over the next few days.

As for Tobago, a Tropical Wave passing and this will bring some rain today and tomorrow and then it's back to the routine of sunshine and showers.

It been quite an odd wet season with nothing of note as we approach October although I am sure some Mexicans would disagree with that.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 5TH OCTOBER 2013 ... 0945 BST

Last week brought yet another week with little threat of Hurricanes although weak Tropical Storm Karen has formed and is about to drop plenty of rain over the US Mississippi areas this weekend.

But it is quite moist all round the Caribbean right now as a broken Tropical Wave passes through.

Tobago can expect a high risk of rain over this weekend. The risk reduces during next week but still a good chance of some rain due to the high moisture levels and proximity of the ITCZ (AKA. Monsoon Trough).

Another Tropical Wave has left the African west coast and this will probably affect the Caribbean towards next weekend.

Regards