LIQUID SUNSHINE - Feedback

[SJKeeler]

Just returned from a two week holiday in Tobago. Paradise, as always. The weather was beautiful, partly cloudy most days. A bit more humid than in years past. Several overnight rain showers and three late day heavy rains that didn't last long. Made for some beautiful rainbows. The mossies, however, were worse than we've ever seen. The seas, rough the first week (coinciding with a full moon), were calm as glass the second.

[Paul Tallet]

Thanks for the feedback SJK.

I noticed the cloud cover ... but could not see the rain so, as you say, short sharp showers.

Seems like everything is quite normal, despite the abnormalities !!

Regards

[Toine & Lia]

Hi Paul,

Just one for the road. Will there be a lot of wind next week or will we fish on a calm sea. My fishin' buddy is already praying to all the gods he knows to get no wind at all.
So, could you please fill us in on that part...

Greetz
Toine & Lia

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Toine and Lia

You cannot expect no wind at all ... at this time of year there is normally a strong east to north-east trade wind.

But, your friend is looking lucky ... because the weather has been so abnormal.

The current mean wind speed is around 12 knots, from the east. Gusts can be higher.

High pressure is building to the north and I expect this will decrease winds speeds over the next few days but I cannot predict beyond Tuesday next week yet.

That said, it is looking very calm for next week.

Regards

[Jane H]

Hi Paul,

You wanted feedback regarding weather - so here it is.

We stayed in Lambeau on the Atlantic coast from 13.4 to 27.4. During that time we had almost no rain - two heavy showers lasting about 1 hour each on 14.4 and another on 23.4. It also rained during the night on a couple of occasions. (Mind you Trinidad got hit with absolutely torrential rain on 14.4. and 15.4 - we could see really black clouds in that direction so I guess we were just lucky.)

Generally we had sun all the way with a just a bit of cloud, and humidity was not a problem. For the last few days, even the locals were saying how hot it was - typically around 34C top temperature.

Back in March I asked you to save some good weather for us - and you did. Thanks!!

Jane

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Jane

Thanks for the feedback which I have checked against my updates for those weeks.

You were very lucky because those were 2 very unsettled weeks and I was issuing warnings of storms which luckily just brushed Tobago and, yes, Trinidad got the worst ... alot of bad weather, as did Margarite and the Dutch Antilles ... close call for Tobago.

The heat would have been high so at least I got my humidity forecasts right !!

Cheers

[Jill M]

Just arrived home yesterday - the weather was HOT !!!! much hotter than last year and NO rain whatsoever in the last week. Thanks for arranging that Paul.

We were stopped at St Kitts for over two hours on Saturday 23.4 while the pilot got safety clearance from the UK to take off due to the amount of rain on the runway. We were told it was the same in Tobago - fortunately that proved completely wrong and it was dry when we landed and stayed that way all week.

[Paul Tallet]

Thanks Jill

It has been raining in Tobago over the last 24 - 36 hours although I expect this to clear up soon for a nice week of sunny weather.

The rain has been very heavy ... quite a miserable weekend.

All the sat loops have gone funny so not been able to see the weather activity properly over the last 48 hours.

Anyway ... good to see that you escaped in good time.

Cheers

[Jill M]

Wow Paul - You are sooooo clever. Thats exactly what happened when we left last year (we went exactly the same week for our wedding anniversary). Remember the cricket?

Jill.

[Paul Tallet]

Jill

I do remember the cricket ... and it was the start of all the strange weather over the last 12 months.

Cheers

[Julia C.]

Psst! Paul - hi.

… another 89mm of rain recorded in the Dominican Republic … that adds up to around 180mm ( or around 6 feet !!!) of rain in the last 72 hours.

180mm doesn't equal 6 feet.

[Paul Tallet]

Yeah ... ... I was in the middle of some other financial calculation when I did that and I just had centimetres in my head ... or maybe 'I just put my "foot" in it' !! ... I thought it was a bit much at the time ... but a bit rushed.

... so thanks for the correction Julia ... you know I will never know how truly deep the water is in Castara ... I will keep you on my list of recommended metric consultants.

It should read about 6 inches ... still alot of rain though !!

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

An answer to a question posted on another thread that I feel is important to place in this feedback thread.

Hi V

Had a hard day at work, got home, thought it through and decided it will take me a long time to put a glossary of terms together about weather.

I guess that a lot of what I can say should be discussed in the LIQUID SUNSHINE FEEDBACK thread.

So what I will do is answer your questions about Tropical Waves directly here, copy the answers to the FEEDBCAK thread and then the discussions can continue from there.

I hope that is OK by you?

So here we go with your questions …


What is a Tropical Wave?

These are also known as Equatorial or Easterly Waves and the reason is simple … they can only happen in the tropics near the equator and they always move west towards the Caribbean from Africa.

They are often quite difficult to see on satellite images because they could be hidden inside a larger weather system or the ITCZ … Inter Tropical Convection (Convergence) Zone.

If you see one it would look ‘V’ shaped and to the west the weather would normally be calm and to the east there would normally be a lot of rain and thunderstorms.

But in reality, the effects of a Tropical Wave can be very widespread, particularly if it reaches land, and this makes it very difficult to see.

For example, a tropical Wave can pass right over Tobago and it would be sunny in Tobago while the rain may fall many miles to the south over Venezuela and this is what makes it hard for me to predict how bad it could be for Tobago … remember I got caught last week with Tobago’s 2nd Tropical Wave !!

I guess that the best way to describe a Tropical Wave is to say it is a trough, like a rain band or developing low pressure … but unique to the Tropics.


Why does a Tropical Wave make it Rain A lot?

It can and it may not, as explained earlier.

It becomes complicated when a Tropical Wave gets near land and the rain could happen a long way away from the Wave.

If it does rain then wherever it happens it is simply because the Tropical Wave is a small depression or trough/rain band.


How Long do they Linger?

Generally a Tropical Wave travels between 5 and 20 knots per hour.

So it could pass Tobago in between 1 and 4 hours … but, as I said, the effects of a Tropical Wave can be spread across a wide area so the rain can go on for hours or days if you are unlucky.


Can I Ask them to stay Away the Second Part of July?

Erm … if I knew the answer to that do you really think that I would be spending hours being a complete ‘anorak’ on the myTobago Forum and loving to try answering your questions?


More Information (i.e.; Other Questions you should have Asked !!)

You need to know that Tropical Waves can develop into Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and, worst of all … Hurricanes.

The best conditions for a Tropical Wave to develop into something more sinister is for the easterly trade winds to fall and for the seas surface temperatures to rise.

At the moment the sea surface temperatures are very high … much higher than normal … see my Hurricane 2005 thread.

But the trade winds are very high … so for now … no hurricanes.

That’s the good news.

But the winds can change quicker than the sea surface temperatures and there are 5 more months of the wet season left.

So, V … when is a hurricane going to happen?

It will happen when the easterly winds die down.

Could it be during the last 2 weeks of July?

Who knows … but it is more likely to be during September and October.

Will it hit Tobago?

Unlikely, but possible … don’t get too excited at this stage.

V ... thank you for your questions ... keep them coming ... and I hope this helps.

Kindest Regards
_________________
Paul Tallet

Regards

[Tim Billington]

Paul,

Thanks for this very detailed explanation, it's very useful.

Just arrived on the forum, and heading to Tobago in the morning. It will be our first trip, so very much looking forward to it.

However, your mention of the "Scary Mary's" does make me a little nervous!

How are things looking for the next 10 days or so? Will we see any sun at all

thanks,

Tim

[V Fabry]

Paul, thanks a lot for your very clear explanation. I even think I'm starting to understand it. It's fascinating, but don't you think it's contagious? The mytobago-thing definitly is, but when you get caught by the liquid sunshine-thing too it might get really serious.

[Paul Tallet]

Tim

You will see plenty of sunshine ... it is just a little unsettled at the moment.

Impossible to predict more than a few days ahead right now ... enjoy your holiday.

And cheers V ... I will try to keep you interested.

Regards

[Roel le Pair]

Hi everyone interested,

Last week was typical or a little better than average for this period of year.
After Emily passed we had some days with no rain (not even showers!). Even 2 days of some 12 hours clear sunshine. Some days gave us the typical short showers just to interupt the sunshine. Pleasantly surprised when the sun disappeared (half) not to let the rain fall, only to give some relief of the warmth. The wind is pleasant. Paul, your prediction of some heavy rain was too pessimistic, as you mentioned already, a little later but only half a day and more clouds and some short sharp showers than long lasting steady rain, (all are observations from the south of Tobago).

In general, I would very gladly have another 2 weeks like this first one just passed.

[Paul Tallet]

Cheers for the feedback Roel.

Always grateful for feedback like this.

Just one question ...

When you say I was pessimistic, did you mean that I predicted less rain than you received or did you have the impression that I was saying lots of rain when, in fact, not as much rain fell as I predicted?

It's all a load of English ... but you know how complicated we are !!!

Regards ... and I sense you are there, so may the sun shine for you ... looking good for the next few days.

Regards

[Roel le Pair]

Hi Paul,
Yes we are here for 3 weeks and exactly halfway today. By "pessimistic" I meant that you were predicting probably more (heavy) rain than in fact happened.
Weather is still fine, lots of sunshine and hardly a shower: yesterday none and thursday one in the evening that lasted less than 5 minutes.
Sometimes these days we get the impression as if we're 'stealing' weather from the dry season. Hope we will not be punished for that next 10 days.
Many regards, Roel

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Roel

Yes ... you maybe getting a steal for this week ... looking good so far but a bit hazy ...

... enjoy the rest of your holiday.

Regards