LIQUID SUNSHINE - Feedback

[Roger D.]

Hi Paul;
Spent July 15th thru the 19th in Tobago, you mentioned to me in a previous post that July could be good when I asked about the weather then, well I'm happy to report that your forecast was accurate as always - we had great weather, it rained briefly on one or two nights we were there. On one day the morning started off a bit rainy, I think it was on the 18th, but it was nice a nd warm, it slowed down towards mid-afternoon and we headed to Pigeon Point - After we got into the water it started to rain, but who cared at that point, it was glorious - I had a Malibu and Mango at hand.
Keep those forecasts coming !
Oh - BTW, We landed at Piarco International on Wednesday July 13th at 12:34 PM. Tropical Strom Warnings had already been posted for Trinidad & Tobago at that point in lieu of the arrival of T.S. Emily. After we passed by Barbados, whose airport was closed at 11:00 AM, we encountered some turbulence. The Captain of the Aircraft did his best to fly around the storm. We flew over Venezuela and around to Piarco, the captain told the flight attendants to be seated immediately, it can be a bit rough from here on in, well, it was not as bad, but a bit thrilling, nothing that an Ice Cold Stag did not cure once we were on the ground
Ours was the last flight of the day and the airport was shutdown. Good thing I got my goddies at duty free in New York.

Thanks again Paul -
Roger.

[Paul Tallet]

Thanks for the feedback Roger.

I remember chatting to you about the prospect of Emily before your flight.

It did get a bit stressful because the official forecasters were predicting Storm conditions and Emily was gearing up for Hurricane status as she passed Tobago.

Luckily no serious problems and, with hindsight, I guess you enjoyed the experience ... or should I say 'excitement'?

Still ... you got the booze ... that's the spirit ... always carry booze when venturing into the unknown

Cheers

[Roger D.]

Who said it was booze
Alright, alright, I made sure that I got the booze before I boarded, just to ensure, I was uh....comfortable, yes, that's the word, comfortable. I managed to stay clear of the rum punch though...

[Paul Tallet]

That's the 'spirit' ... always thinking ahead

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Everyone


Educational Slot … the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)


I have received a number of queries about the ITCZ and I am pleased to explain …


The ITCZ is a ‘weather area’ around the equator that is basically constant low pressure.

This area represents a band around the centre of the earth where the trade winds from the southern latitudes meet the trade winds from the northern latitudes.

Being equatorial … the air from both sides is tropical and generally this produces a lot of rainfall that manifests itself commonly from ‘Hadley’s Cells’ that I recall mentioning before.

These are the most violent types of Thunderstorm on Earth and the reason is simple … in equatorial regions the atmosphere is higher and therefore the cloud tops can reach greater heights than over regions closer to the earth’s northern and southern poles.

The more cloud, the more rain … and this explains why tropical areas suffer tremendous flooding episodes during their monsoon or wet seasons.

The ITCZ’s position would typically be between 5 degrees north and south of the equator, but this changes as the earth tilts and creates the seasons in the temperate zones (i.e.; outside of the tropics).

So, from April to October, the ITCZ is more likely to be north of the equator and from November to March it is likely to be south of the equator.

Tobago is about 11 degrees north of the equator.

Arguably, Tobago should not really have a dry and a wet season because Tobago is very close to the equator … closer than all of the other Caribbean Islands, apart from Trinidad.

This could explain why Tobago has rain all year round … there is a marginal difference between Tobago’s dry and wet seasons and this is due to Tobago’s proximity to the ITCZ.

Take January 2005, for instance. It was the dry season and it rained over Tobago almost daily throughout January. It was unseasonal and this was because the ITCZ decided to stay north of the equator when it was supposed to be further south … on this occasion the Amazon areas would have had an unusually dry season.

The only other complications that can arise is where Tropical Waves (during the wet season) move off the African Coast and these have a magnetic effect on the ITCZ.

A strong Tropical Wave can ‘kink’ (ever wondered why they are called Waves?) the ITCZ and create a depression … such depressions can develop into Storms and possibly Hurricanes.

The funny old thing is that developing Storms and Hurricanes cannot survive in an environment of low pressure such as the ITCZ and so we go back to that Wave to explain why Hurricanes rarely affect Tobago.

If you imagine a Wave/kink in the ITCZ … like a Mexican Wave. The Depression is sort of kicked away from the ITCZ and moved away from the equatorial zone.

The reason why Tobago has experienced 2 close Hurricane calls over the last year is simply due to the fact that the ITCZ was well to the south of Tobago and that there was strong high pressure to the north at the times these Storms manifested themselves … they got the ITCZ kick but the momentum was checked by the unyielding high pressure in the north … so these storms had to go west.

These are the simple basics that I use to track Hurricanes and this how I had the sense that Hurricanes Ivan (Sept 2004) and Emily (July 2005) would come close to Tobago.

Official forecasters use sophisticated models to predict Hurricane tracks.

Generally, their initial estimates are appalling but they improve as a Hurricane develops because the models are updated to take account of a Hurricane’s behaviour in it’s early development stages.

Consequently, the predictions are pretty accurate by the time these Storms reach Florida.

So that leaves me to watch over Tobago … as I do … every day.

Regards

[Tracey Harrison]

Hi Paul,

Is it too early to ask about the outlook from Thursday next week (which is when we arrive in Tobago!)?

[Paul Tallet]

Tracey

It is a bit early ... but Tobago seems established in a hot, calm and humid period that could last well into next week.

Watch for Liquid Sunshine updates.

Regards

[Roger D.]

Hi Paul;
Just read your forecast for this week. Now, let's see If I understand this correctly, the remnants of Irene that merged over Greenland, will re-introduce the westerlies across Europe, this will push the North Atlantic high further south. My question is, when this high goes furhter south what impact would it have on the strong tropical depression that's coming off Africa. Would the North Atlantic High force this depression to move due west and south, thus pushing it in close proximity to Tobago ?
Roger.

[Paul Tallet]

That's possible Roger.

But it is too early to say.

Cheers

[Paul Tallet]

Roger

It is still a little speculative, but I have decided to post an update in Liquid Sunshine and copy this to the Hurricane 2005 string regarding the Wave and Depression you refer to.

I have been watching this system and it seems that something will come out of it even if it is only some heavy rain towards the end of the week.

Regards

[Roger D.]

Hi Paul;
Lets keep our fingers crossed that it does not develop into anything significant.
Roger.

[Allan K.]

Hi Paul

We are going to Tobago in 10 days and I will watch your forecasts with interest (and crossed fingers). However, when in Tobago - without daily internet access - do you know the most reliable source of forecast information, e.g. local TV/Radio/Newspapers?

Thanks
Allan

[Steve Wooler]

Hi Allan

Welcome aboard!

I'm sure Paul will have his own input on the subject, but I just thought I'd welcome you to the forum and tell you that the best guide is the fisherman on the beach. Mind you, after a day or two there you will drop our British preoccupation with the weather. The name of Paul's weather thread says it all - the rain there is just liquid sunshine.

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Allan

There are a few Internet Cafes around Tobago although the speed is not that good.

There are some links on the Weather section of myTobago that you can access to check out the weather coupled with the option of accessing the Liquid Sunshine posts in the Weather section of the forum that I guess you will have noted are updated every Saturday with further updates during each week.

Otherwise, the newspapers or as Steve says, the fishermen always know if it is going to be a good day or a bad day ... watch where they anchor their boats.

Regards

[Allan K.]

Thanks Steve

Although regular visitors to the Caribbean, this is our first time in Tobago, and I agree that the fishermen always seem to know more than the newspapers (it's a shame that there are no Caribbean fishermen in Birmingham when I start to paint the outside of my house). I take the weather as it comes, but I asked mainly to get the most out of booking boat trips by being aware of any imminent bad weather.

Cheers
Allan

[Steve Wooler]

No Problem, Allan - I was only teasing.

Have a great trip - I'm sure you will.

[David Watkins]

The most reliable source?
Look out of the window-if it's raining it'll stop,if it isn't it might-if it doesn't great,if does so what.(a poor parody of a Tobagonian song,sorry )
David (113 days to go)

[Tony J]

Dear Paul

You were right about the weather. I have just received a report from Tobago that the weather got very bad yesterday. Apparently a mini tornado hit near the airport, roofs to houses were lost and some homes were flooded. Hope everyone was okay down there.

[Andy D]

I too had a report from a friend in Tobago saying that yesterday they experienced some very nasty thunderstorm activity with torrential rain etc . Hope the weather improves for the island

[Steve Wooler]

Hi Paul

Sorry, I meant to post this when I received it yesterday at 7:30pm yesterday evening.

half an hour ago we just had a mini tornado rip across Milford Road outside Villas of Tobagos office. The wind started in the wrong direction and has ripped down some trees taken off roofs. Stuff was flying everywhere and we hid quick. Then it disappeared as quickly as it came. Will take pictures when the rain stops to show you what has happened.