LIQUID SUNSHINE - Feedback

[Gisela Grell]

I really thought that Pauls underpants were sold on eBay and I will never hear about them....

Well, I'm glad it was not me who mentioned it again

Cheers

[Paul Williams]

Just to let you know Paul that you were correct with last weeks forecast and at present it is lovely here in Castara.
Found a really tatty pair of trunks down by the fishermans co-op yesterday anyone claiming them?
Stingrays in the bay and on Tuesday last a leatherback turtle came in although we were not lucky enough to see it.
Crossing over to fishing had a great day out with Stephen,Chris and John in Rustys boat last Wednesday although I caught nothing.
Regards from paradise
Paul

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Paul

Hope you are having a great time.

I don't think those trunks are mine ... I sense that Giselle purchased them on the eBay site

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

A copy of a warning posted on Liquid Sunshine 15th May 2006.



WARNING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS

2000 BST 15th May 2006


Hey Ho ... here we go.

The Tropical Wave I mentioned in Saturday's Liquid Sunshine is now around the 58 degrees west mark ... still well to the south and east.

There is some cyclonic turning in the wave which is an indication of squalliness and a very small risk of Tropical Storm development.

Thunderstorms are developing widely to the south and east of Tobago as the Wave makes progress west and northwards.

This brings a prospect of unsettled weather for the next few days up to Thursday.

I will post a copy of this on the Feedback string.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

See Liquid Sunshine for Weather Warnings ... 4th June 2006.

Regards

[Andy D]

Hello from a very hot and overcast Scarborough,had quite a bit of heavy rain today but now it's overcast and very humid,temp is 34 degrees but no sun at the mo.Been sunny all week though so cant complain too much.

[Lisa Keith]

Hiya!

As Andy says... the weather hasn't been brilliant today - it's been fairly constantly drizzling at least! The Met Office advise the following:-

An Active Tropical Wave is Affecting Tobago and Will Bring Some Cloudy and Showery Periods to Dampen Outdoor Activities For the Next 12 to 24 Hours.
Marine Enthusiasts and Fishing-Folk should exercise additional caution during extended Trips Or Tours.

This Afternoon & Tonight: Mostly Cloudy with periods of Rain/Showers and the Isolated Thundershower. Gusty Winds May accompany Heavy Showers.

Tomorrow: Variably Cloudy with Occasional Showers and Isolated Thundershower.

Ho hum! Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but without the 'liquid sunshine' Tobago wouldn't be the Serene Green land we all know and love!

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Chaps

Yes I warned of rain from Tuesday onwards from this Tropical Wave in the Liquid Sunshine Update last Saturday.

The rain is currently very intense and sporadic and I sense that it will last through tonight and into tomorrow and gradually die out.

Friday should see an improvement.

More Waves on the way and as I said ... every 3 to 4 days.

Regards

[John Redburn]

Afternoon Paul, I've read "Liquid Sunshine" forum, but being meteorlogically challenged myself can't quite translate it to what the actual experience will be on the ground(beach!). We're visiting Scarborough area from July 27th for two weeks, any thoughts about likely weather based on current forecasting etc. Many thanks - John

[Paul Tallet]

Hi John

The weather for Tobago is pretty much the same all round (with the Island being so small) except more rainfall tends to fall over rainforest areas.

Scarborough is on the less sheltered side (the Atlantic side) so you will find it is alot more breezy than resorts on the Caribbean side.

But generally ... on the ground ... it feels quite humid, the sun is extremely hot and there is rarely much of a drop in temperature during showers.

At night it can feel even more humid but the air temperature drops sufficiently for the sea to feel warmer in the hours before sunrise when you wake up at 0400 the day after your arrival with jetlag !!

Hope this helps

Regards

[John Redburn]

Thanks Paul, that's very helpful. What's the outlook for the two weeks from 27th July from your perspective?

[Paul Tallet]

Well John ... that is a difficult one.

At this time of year with 2 or 3 Tropical Waves passing each week you just cannot tell if the weather will be sublime or 'hell on earth'.

Keep watching Liquid Sunshine ... I can only tell a few days ahead at this time of year.

Enjoy your holiday ... whatever the weather, you will enjoy.

Regards

[John Redburn]

Paul.. an update from Scarborough (Hilton). Weather here has been pretty good, a bit of rain in the first few days, but last couple of days very windy and very hot. I think the storm missed us but we felt some of its wake.
Sorry have to go back to the beach now!
Regards
John

[Roger D.]

Hey Paul;
I came across this article on the BBC and thought you might interested.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6038296.stm

Dust 'affects hurricane activity'

Several factors may influence the development of hurricanes
US researchers have discovered a link between Atlantic hurricane activity and thick clouds of dust that periodically rise up from the Sahara Desert.
At times of intense hurricane activity, dust clouds were scarce, but in years with stronger dust storms, fewer hurricanes swept across the Atlantic.

The work raises the tantalising possibility that Saharan dust storms could help to quench hurricanes.

Details appear in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters.

"These findings are important because they show that long-term changes in hurricanes may be related to many different factors," said co-author Jonathan Foley, director of the Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

"While a great deal of work has focused on the links between [hurricanes] and warming ocean temperatures, this research adds another piece to the puzzle."

Dust tracking

Researchers have increasingly turned their attention to the environmental impact of dust, after it became clear that, in some years, millions of tonnes of sand rise up from the Sahara Desert and travel across the Atlantic Ocean - sometimes in as little as five days.

If scientists conclusively prove that dust storms help to suppress the development of hurricanes, weather forecasters could one day begin to track atmospheric dust, factoring it into their predictions for the first time, the researchers say.


Hurricanes: Animated Guide
The Saharan sand rises when hot desert air collides with the cooler, drier air of the Sahel region, just south of the Sahara.

The windy conditions that result toss the sand upwards. Then, strong trade winds begin to blow them westward into the northern Atlantic Ocean.

Dust storms form primarily during summer and winter months, but in some years, for reasons that are not understood, they barely form at all.

The researchers say that dry, dust-ridden layers of air probably help to "dampen" brewing hurricanes, which need heat and moisture to fuel them.

But co-author Christopher Velden, from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said that effect could also mean that dust storms had the potential to shift a hurricane's direction further to the west, which means it would have a higher chance of hitting the United States and Caribbean islands.

"What we don't know is whether the dust affects the hurricanes directly, or whether both [dust and hurricanes] are responding to the same large-scale atmospheric changes around the tropical Atlantic," said Dr Foley. "That's what future research needs to find out."

The study was funded by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa).

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Roger

Have they just realised ?

I have referred to the Saharan Dust factor many times before.

I would not say that it can dry out a hurricane but it does have a big impact on the Tropical Waves and stalls the development of moisture around the Wave.

The moisture and sea surface temperatures provide the energy and if one of these factors is missing then nothing happens.

This is precisely what has happened this season ... The Atlantic High is responsible and the more it sits to the east then the more dust will be carried across the Atlantic to the Caribbean, but it does not always reach the Caribbean.

Last season only a handful of hurricanes formed in the Atlantic but as soon as the Tropical Waves moved into the Caribbean Sea the activity really took off.

There have been no less Tropical Waves this season so it has been just as active but without the results of last season.

Other factors can be Volcanic ash and you may have noticed that an eruption occured on Monserrat earlier this season and that could have contributed to the dryness around the Caribbean this season.

Hope this helps

Regards

[Roger D.]

Hey Paul;
I think you need your own Global Weather Channel based on Tobago How's that !

[Paul Tallet]

Hmmm ... yet I lack those excitable and inspirational qualities normally exuded by the American Weather Forcasters.



Regards

[Neil C]

Hi Paul
The way you portray your forecasts is truly remarkable and so spot-on which puts you into a different league to the weather channel people and those who present on our own channels. Any chance of helping us poor sods residing in the UK with a weekly forecast. Presently we have to rely on ma BBC for an approximation of what the weather will be doing in a couple of hours leave alone a week at a time.
Keep up the good works. Just confirmed our next visit for Feb. rumour has it it may be snowing here - but other than God and you who else would know
Cheers
Neil
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[Tony Gibson]

Dont complain about the weather, in sunney Newcastle we have just moved into the 6 months dingey weather, rain & darkness until next March, the leather backs are swiming up the tyne and the sting rays are heading south.
Sorry Steve but the happy people in Tobago are killing me!

[Roger D.]

Paul;
I can do without those qualities - You always manage to hit those forecasts spot on and you have not been wrong as of yet -

So, with the proceeds that Steve W. made from the sale of your underpants on ebay, I'm sure he'll be willing to finance your global weather channel in Tobago