Wedding Weather!

[Kate C.]

Hi Paul,

I'm checking in with you as it is almost time for my trip! We will be on Tobago (Coco Reef) Oct 7- Oct. 16. How does the weather look? Any specifics for the 14th? That's our wedding date.

Thank you,
Kate

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Kate

I don't think I will make a prediction for the 14th just yet !!

It is very quiet right now and there is a low risk of a wash out.

The current position is high sea surface temperatures and reducing wind shear with less saharan dust drying out the air.

These conditions are better for Tropical Storm development than recent conditions but the trend needs to get set in before any nasties can start winding themselves up in the Atlantic.

There are 2 Tropical Waves on their way, the first one is not producing much rain and the second one looks a little more vigorous and could bring some rain by Monday next week.

Otherwise ... so far so good.

Keep watching this thread and I will post something mid-week next week.

In the meantime I hope all goes well with the arrangements.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Kate ... a draft of this week's weather update for your information.

I will have another look at it for you on Thursday.

WEEKLY WEATHER – 7th OCTOBER 2006 … 1700 BST


Hi everyone.


Last Week

Wet start last weekend and big improvement during the week but the moisture has been increasing again.


General Situation

The moisture is increasing as the ITCZ is right over Tobago and a Tropical Wave is moving in as I write.

The whole of the Caribbean is rather unsettled with the worst of the weather over Mexico and the Central Americas.

The Atlantic High is strong and the trades are expected to increase over the next 2 days as the Tropical Wave moves across.


The Week Ahead for Tobago

A wet start to this weekend followed by an increase in the wind speeds.

The weather should improve over the week … it had better do because there is an important wedding next weekend !


Regards
_________________
Paul Tallet

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Hi Kate

A copy of an update of this week's weather.

Don't worry, it should clear up before the weekend.

UPDATE ... 9th OCTOBER 2006 ... 0010 BST

RAIN

As mentioned in the weekly update (above), the moisture is increasing as a Tropical Wave approaches from the east.

There is substantial and widespread rainfall associated with this Tropical Wave that is interacting with the nearby ITCZ.

There are no prospects of any Tropical Storm development as the wind shear over the Wave is very strong but the shear is pushing the rain eastwards as the Wave progresses west ... consequently we have a large area of rain.

The rain has been starting to fall near Tobago over the last 12 hours and it is struggling to make it's progress west.

Expect sporadic rainfall for the next 2 days ... the weather should then improve towards the weekend.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEDDING WEATHER UPDATE


It is looking good for Saturday with the risk of the occasional shower.

All the nasty weather is to the north covering all the Islands north of Barbados up to Puerto Rico.

Tobago the right choice for this weekend

Regards

[Bill B]

Paul,

Tobago is the right choice for any weekend

Bill