2012 Hurricane Season

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Paul Tallet
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2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Jun 25, 2012 4:59 pm

Hi everyone

I have put it off long enough ... 4 named Storms this season so far.

I am focusing on Debby, a Tropical Storm that now threatens to move across Florida, reduce to a Tropical Depression and then move out to the Atlantic and possibly restrengthen.

Already, considerable rainfall has affected Florida from the intense rainbands on the eastern side of Debby ... so far she has been very unpredictable with Alabama initially under threat.

Debby is not a hurricane but she carries severe flooding risks as Florida has already discovered.

No threats to the rest of the Caribbean.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Jun 27, 2012 8:53 am

SMALL RISK OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN 3 DAYS

A Tropical Wave (currently about 3 days away to the east in the Tropical Atlantic) appears to have formed a depression and could develop further over the next 3 days.

I reckon this could arrive as a Tropical Wave in the eastern Caribbean by Saturday. This can bring unpredictable weather conditions over a wide area of the eastern Caribbean for a period of 24 hours before it moves west and possibly develops further in the central or west Caribbean.

If any development occurs before arrival then any disturbed weather conditions should be more localised and likely be to the north of Tobago.

This is something to be aware of up to this weekend.

Meanwhile, Debby has weakened over Florida but brought considerable rainfall ... I expect her to strengthen again when she moves east over warm Atlantic water.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Jun 29, 2012 6:08 pm

WAVE UPDATE

The Tropical Wave east of Tobago is about 800 miles away and moving at around 15 mph ... about 50-60 hours away and it's weather will start affecting the eastern Caribbean very late Saturday and Sunday.

Thunderstorm activity has increased and the NHC are giving it a 20% chance of Storm development within 48 hours ... this prediction could become better or worse quite quickly ... these Waves can kick off quite dramatically as they enter the Caribbean Sea or they can just die out depending on the conditions ... right now, there seems nothing adverse for development.

As I said in the previous post ... unless a closed circulation forms, there could be widespread rainfall by Sunday with some localised Stormy conditions across most of the eastern Caribbean.

If there is any development then conditions are likely to be problematic for a narrower area, likely to be to the north of Tobago.

I would recommend caution and to not make any sea-faring plans or open-top drives around the rainforest this weekend until we are sure the risks of bad weather are over.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Jul 01, 2012 3:18 pm

WAVE UPDATE

I defer the weekly Liquid Sunshine update until this Wave has passed through.

Development has been snuffed out and, as a consequence, there is widespread rainfall around the eastern and southern Caribbean as predicted.

This should all blow over in the next 24-48 hours.

Just remember that this is a Tropical Wave and there will be localised incidents of extreme weather such as heavy rain and/or strong winds.

Apart from another small and insignificant disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico there does not seem to be anything else to worry about for the next week.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Jul 31, 2012 9:16 am

NEW THREAT


We have the first threat to Tobago in this season.

A Tropical Wave is approaching as I indicated in Liquid Sunshine yesterday. A depression is forming at around 9 degrees which is quite close to the equator. The NHC are issuing advisories on this and the weather models have a spread of predictions regarding the future track of this Storm ranging from the northern Caribbean to well south of Trinidad.

I have noted with interest the more southerly tracks indicated in the predictions than those of yesterday which were all to the north of Tobago.

The general consensus is that this will develop into a named Storm (Ernesto) but it is about 'when' that really matters.

Early development (the next 48 hours appears unlikely) would indicate a more northerly track but slow development could be bad news for Tobago and the Lesser Antilles this weekend, even if it is not quite a Tropical Storm by the time it arrives.

This disturbed area of weather is expected to reach the eastern Caribbean by Friday night or Saturday morning so there are 3 days for everyone to prepare for adverse weather conditions at the very least.

I will post another update tomorrow or earlier if I see further developments.


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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Jul 31, 2012 3:27 pm

NEW THREAT - UPDATE

Potential 'Ernesto' is slowly developing but still a little too close to the equator to get any turning motion going as it tracks steadily west ... getting closer to the Lesser Antilles.

The environment is good for development apart from the low latitude but there is a little dry air ahead that could disrupt the Storm.

There is no consensus of when development into a Storm will occur ... it is looking very likely that Tobago and most of the Lesser Antilles will be affected but to what extent is impossible to tell for another 48 hours.

Heavy rains may reach Tobago by Thursday but this depression is another 24 hours or so behind the leading thunderstorms.

It could be a very wet weekend ... I would be cautious about arranging any boat and rainforest trips at this stage.

Further updates to follow ...

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Aug 01, 2012 10:03 am

ERNESTO?

I am now monitoring potential 'Ernesto' hourly as this developing disturbance maintains it's westerly track towards the Lesser Antilles.

The NHC has raised the stakes, predicting a 50% chance that Ernesto could form within 48 hours and the consensus of all the (increasingly reliable) weather models takes the track straight over Tobago (this could change).

We can only hope that the track changes otherwise the consequences for Tobago could be quite unpleasant this weekend (even if development into a Tropical Storm does not occur) ... there is still considerable uncertainty as to when development into a Tropical Storm or Hurricane will occur and it looks like a very close call for Tobago.

In view of this, my advice is to assume the worst and hope for the best and I strongly recommend Tobago prepares for severe weather this weekend and bring the fishing boats in.

Based on the current situation, rain will start to affect Tobago and the other Islands on the Leeward side late tonight and early tomorrow. Any stormy conditions are likely to arrive about 24 hours later (Friday).

I am keeping my fingers crossed that the track changes or a miraculous burst of dry air snuffs this potential problem out.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Aug 01, 2012 6:46 pm

ERNESTO (?) UPDATE

NHC have raised the stakes to 70% but the weather models are showing a slightly more northerly track a few miles north of Tobago.

Tropical Depression formation looks certain and rain looks to be the main threat for now. Tropical Storm status is possible but too early to tell.

The Depression needs to stay south to develop as conditions are not looking too good for development if it moves 2 degrees north.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Aug 01, 2012 8:45 pm

NOW UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION

We now have a Tropical Depression. It is likely to track across Barbados according to the models but this track can deviate over the next 24 hours.

I still recommend caution for Tobago, particularly for heavy rain from tonight onwards through the weekend.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Aug 02, 2012 9:13 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5

Potential Ernesto has wandered a little too far north for any serious development and now looks ragged from heavy shear and dry air.

This poses more complications as the depression could be snuffed out (I referred to this as a miracle prospect yesterday!) or if it steers more west or south then it could regenerate.

Eitherway there are still prospects of heavy rain for Tobago this weekend and prospects of regeneration to a Hurricane a few days on in the Caribbean Sea.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Aug 02, 2012 3:39 pm

TD 5 UPDATE

The system has now nudged a little south as if it was bouncing off the strong shear to it's north.

This shear has been wrecking the northern half of the system and pushing most of the thunderstorms to the south of the centre.

This explains it's rather ragged shape on satellite loops.

It also means that the worst of the weather will be to the south so Tobago is at risk of some very heavy rainfall from tonight onwards.

If the system carries on a westward track there could be strengthening within the next 24 hours and this puts Barbados, Grenada and the Grenadines at risk of strong winds.

Not out of the woods yet ...

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Aug 02, 2012 9:45 pm

TS ERNESTO

Ernesto has now formed.

The Storm has nudged even further south but bring no direct threat to Tobago apart from heavy rain, the majority of which is falling to the south of the Storm as explained in my previous post.

The centre of Ernesto is quite small with winds of about 50 mph and this should cut a narrow path over or to the south of Barbados and through the Grenadines over the weekend.

I still advise caution for anywhere south of the centre for the heavy rains this weekend.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:14 am

TS ERNESTO AND NEW TROPICAL WAVE

Ernesto has wobbled back north and the centre is skirting the northern coast of Barbados.

Areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms are to the south of the system and these are affecting Trinidad & Tobago and will continue to do so for the next 24 hours.

Ernesto is still struggling a little but once through the Windward Islands the conditions look ideal for development into a major hurricane with Jamaica and Cuba at risk in 4/5 days time.

Another system has moved off the coast of Africa but this is in a more Northerly position and more likely to miss the Caribbean altogether in the event of early development ... the NHC are rating this only 10% for now. If development does not occur then this could bring heavy rains to the Caribbean during the middle of next week.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Aug 03, 2012 12:43 pm

TS ERNESTO & TROPICAL WAVE - UPDATE

Ernesto appears to be re-strengthening as it passes close to St Lucia and the rainfall to the south of the system is now affecting Trinidad & Tobago.

The NHC have raised their stakes on the new Wave to 30% and this is good for the Caribbean as any development will make this Storm go north and possibly even miss the US and curve back out into the north Atlantic.

Watch out for the rain in Tobago.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Aug 07, 2012 8:06 am

ERNESTO, FLORENCE AND MORE

TS Ernesto has shot across the Caribbean at some speed and is now knocking on the doors to Honduras and Belize.

It is possible that Ernesto could become a Hurricane before landfall in Belize.

TS Florence has been sheared away and poses little threat.

Another system is just south of the Cape Verde Islands and yet another 'blob' is moving through central Africa.

No more threats yet.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Aug 08, 2012 9:53 am

INVEST 92

As Hurricane Ernesto powers across northern Belize and Mexico, attention is now turning to a new development south of the Cape Verde Islands ... this is the 'blob' I referred to in a previous post crossing central Africa.

This one is expected to take a similar track to Ernesto but probably a little further north so there is a low threat to Tobago at this stage. The weather models did a good job on Ernesto and I expect them to do them same with this one.

Higher risks apply to the Islands north of Tobago if development occurs.

The risk to Tobago is rain for the weekend but I will be keeping an eye on this in case it wobbles any further south.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Aug 10, 2012 8:38 am

TD 7 and INVEST 93

The 'blob' I referred to has upgraded to a Tropical Depression with a good chance that it will pass right through the middle of the Windward Islands by Sunday as a Tropical Storm.

It has teetered south a little bit so it is still worth watching carefully.

Tobago can expect some indirect rainfall from this system maybe from late Saturday through to Monday.

Behind this is a new development and this looks like a real beast however it is at a higher latitude and about to run through the Cape Verde Islands so I don't expect this to affect the Caribbean at this stage ... this one could affect the eastern US sometime during the middle of next week or it could recurve back out into the Atlantic.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Aug 11, 2012 1:51 pm

TD 7

Very intense rainfall is affecting Trinidad and Tobago as an indirect result of the proximity of Tropical Depression 7.

In fact, the rainfall around the 'non-existent' center of the Depression is less intense then the rain over T&T and there is some speculation as to whether the system has opened up to become a vigorous Tropical Wave ... this means that the rainfall and winds can be spread over a wider area.

I have even wondered to myself (even though I am mad!) if the center could have jumped south where conditions around T&T are more favourable for development ... could this have happened?

Regardless of the madness of my theories, as predicted there is rainfall for Tobago ... it will be very heavy and could last at least 18 more hours.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Andy K » Sat Aug 11, 2012 5:33 pm

I woke up by 5:30 am from the noise of a heavy downpour hammering my metal roof.
It subsided fortunately after a short while and some heavy drizzle continued for the next few hours.
Right now (1:30 pm) rainfall has stopped and it is clearing up in the Scarborough area.

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Re: 2012 Hurricane Season

Post by Andy K » Sat Aug 11, 2012 6:42 pm

The western part of Trinidad has been hit hard by torrenial rain and severe flooding.
Most affected areas are the Diego Martin Valley, La Horquette / Glencoe and Carenage, where roads have been
washed away and bridges collapsed. First responders including the army engineers batallion are out in
full force. A 25-year old man was killed when his house collapsed.

There are no reports of any significant damage or casualties in Tobago.

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