2013 Hurricane Season

[Paul Tallet]

Here we go ...

Another season of Hurricanes ... not just Hurricanes. Tropical Waves, Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms ... they can all be quite damaging.

I am in Tobago for a month from the 14th June and I hope to experience the effects of a Tropical Wave myself for the first time.

Tobago normally gets Tropical Waves, some of which go on to develop into Tropical Storms and Hurricanes further west in the Caribbean.

It is very rare for Tobago to get a direct Hurricane hit ... the last one was back in 1963 ... but if you look through my Hurricane posts since 2004 you will see there have been a few close shaves with, possibly, Hurricane Ivan back in 2004 being the worst.

Ivan bloodied Tobago's nose as it sped past about 15kms to the north and went on to cause devastation in Grenada as a Category 4.

But do not forget ... during the same year that Hurricane Ivan struck a Tropical Depression dumped over 16 inches of rain on Tobago in the space of 18 hours and this was more costly in terms of life and destruction ... there are still remnants of this event around the Speyside area today.

The NHC are predicting an above average Hurricane season this year and one of their satellites has gone down so it could be quite a challenging season in terms of prediction.

One hopes it will be boring.

Nevertheless ... the news will be here, not just for Tobago, but for everyone in the Caribbean ... stay tuned and get the insights and speculations here

Here we go ..............................

Regards

[Hugh S]

Paul,

I was in Tobago for Ivan. Quite a ride!

[Paul Tallet]

Oh Yes Hugh ... it was quite a scare and I guess Tobago got Tropical Storm conditions while Ivan's Hurricane force wind bands were very small at that time and probably just shaved the north coast of Tobago. We were speculating on a direct hit at the time as the NHC was dithering and the warnings didn't happen until 'it' happened ... the NHC are much better now.

Anyway, we have the first disturbance just off Belize/Mexico ... it could develop a little more but nothing major expected as yet.

Cuba should watch this system and then I expect this will start to affect Florida at the weekend.

Tobago's Tropical Wave has moved on and the weather looks fine for now. The weekend brings uncertainty ... the next Tropical Wave is coming in but there is significant Saharan dust in the atmosphere that could snuff the moisture out.

Otherwise the weather looks OK although rain is not far away to the south.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

ANDREA

We have our first named Storm of the season. No worries for Tobago.

Andrea is expected to bring heavy rain to Florida this weekend and is unlikely to develop into a Hurricane.

It is raining again in Tobago but it should dry up a bit before another Wave moves in at the weekend ... I am not sure if this will bring much rain yet as there is alot of Saharan dust around the Wave.

Hopefully the Wave will introduce drier weather.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

ANDREA AND OTHER

Florida is taking alot of rain from Andrea and there could be some localised squalls and tornadoes as she passes over.

It's looking good for Tobago though ... it's still raining there now but the next Wave has wound itself up into a Depression and is spinning to the north which means that Tobago might avoid further rain this weekend.

Development of this system is unlikely and even if it happens it should spin well wide of the Caribbean.

I arrive in Tobago next Friday so, of course, the weather has to be good ... eh?

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

95

As mentioned in the Liquid Sunshine today ... the stakes are rising on a development in the mid-Atlantic.

As I said before ... if this system starts spinning too soon it may well go north and get taken apart by the Saharan Dust but I am sensing slow development.

If my senses are right then the conditions in the south Caribbean are good but the system has to stay low to the south which would be unusual ... but possible ... Hurricane development is still misunderstood but I know that if a Hurricane or Tropical Storm is to form then they can be drawn towards the areas that give them a comfort zone.

So ... we need to watch this system ... it could arrive as early as Tuesday in the south east Caribbean as a Depression or developing Storm or it could develop quickly and go more to the North ... early days.

Updates will follow ...

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

NHC have upgraded the bets on this system. It's looking well organised on the satloops but has a long way to go and many obstacles to overcome.

Update tomorrow.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

95L

Now is the time for the south east Caribbean to be on alert for the arrival of potential Tropical Storm conditions and possibly localised hurricane conditions as a vigorous Tropical Wave arrives within 48 hours.

The system is moving quite quickly at 25 mph and this speed can hamper development to some degree but all the other ingredients in the south Caribbean are perfect for development.

I am a little naffed off about this because I have arranged a trip to Lovers Bay for Tuesday ... that will now be cancelled and I recommend the bays are cleared of boats and preparations are in place for Stormy weather late Tuesday through to Wednesday.

I hope it comes to nothing but I strongly recommend precaution.

The exact track of the Storm is difficult to predict at this stage so, if I have internet connection, I will update this regularly.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

I sense this storm will develop eventually but if it closes it's circulation soon I sense it will move north of Tobago ... it will be close.

We need to remember the tail of these Storms ... so if it goes north of Tobago then there could be a sting in the tail as the circulation whips round ... this is a developing Storm and systems of this kind are extremely unpredictable in their early stages.

Take the necessary precautions and hope it comes to nothing.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

95L is winding up quite nicely but it is going too fast to really get nasty ... this is good news for anything in this system's radar as it will pass through quite quickly.

Tobago is on the radar but I still sense that the centre of this development will be to the north of Tobago. It can still be a problem though.

Off to bed and plan to get some rays before the arrival of bad weather Monday night.

Goodnight ... updates will follow.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TS CHANTAL

Chantal has formed and will bring bad weather to the Caribbean over the course of this week and the weekend.

The only good news is that she has formed quickly and is moving very fast.

As I mentioned yesterday, now that Chantal is spinning, the centre of the Storm should miss Tobago as she veers more to the north. But Tobago will still be affected by the outer bands of Chantal.

Barbados could expect a direct hit.

Updates to follow if there are any changes.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Tropical Storm Chantal has surprised many by how quickly she developed and she may be a dangerous proposition once she passes through the windward islands and into the Caribbean Sea.

Tobago looks reasonably safe although Chantal's outer rain bands may bring heavy rain tomorrow to Tobago.

I have also noticed some moisture is moving north over Tobago (there was a thunderstorm earlier today).

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Off to bed ... a final check on Chantal indicates that she may even track north of Barbados.

Our trip tomorrow is cancelled as a precaution and I hear that some schools in Tobago are closed tomorrow ... good to see that everyone is being vigilant just in case the Storm does a little wobble to the south.

No storm watches are in force here and I sense Tobago may get some rain as Chantal passes to the north.

Another development is brewing behind Chantal and this should arrive at the weekend ... too early to determine how this one will develop.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TS Chantal's centre is now near or over Barbados however the rainfall and thunderstorms are concentrated to the south of the system.

A thunderstorm has just passed to the north of Tobago and dark clouds are gathering to the north and east.

The sea is quite calm but a little more lively than yesterday but there is hardly any wind.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Not a bad day.

TS Chantal's cloud canopy has shut out the sun for most of the day and a couple of thunderstorms have rolled past.

The sat loops showed Tobago to be right on the southern edge of Chantal ... it was quite interesting to see all the clouds going in the opposite direction and the wind blowing off the sea ... albeit it very light breezes.

Hopefully, I can expose my pretty flesh to the sun by tomorrow !!

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

Goodbye Chantal

[Paul Tallet]

We now have the first Hurricane possibility for this year's wet season.

Don't worry ... it is threatening the Cape Verde Islands and likely to move north west and will not threaten the Caribbean or the US. Might loop back towards Europe though.

It's just that it will be the first Hurricane of the season ... that's all I am getting excited about

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

After a rather quiet Hurricane season so far, we have a development to the east.

It is moving rather slowly and may not reach the Caribbean until early next week. The NHC have issued a 50% chance that it could develop into a Tropical Depression in the next 24 hours.

The sooner this disturbance develops, the better it will be for Tobago and the rest of the Caribbean as it is likely to spin a little more to the north and hopefully miss the Caribbean altogether.

But there is a risk that development could be slow and this disturbance needs to be watched for the time being.

Meanwhile, please spare a thought for communities along the north east coast of India as a very dangerous Cyclone Phailin churns through the Bay of Bengal and is strengthening rapidly ... a potential disaster for the weekend that could cost many lives.

I will post updates on the Atlantic disturbance as things develop.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

There has been very little change in the slow moving disturbance in the Atlantic. It just seems as if conditions are not right for Hurricanes in this Ocean but there is always a possible anomaly and I think this system should be watched.

Conversely, the Pacific Ocean is very active with no less than 4 named Storms.

A potential disaster is unfolding in the Bay of Bengal as Cyclone Phailin has achieved Category 5 status as it moves towards and over the north east coastline of India ... this is the one to watch and I am sad because I think this is going to hit the headlines over the next few days.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE UPDATE

The stakes are rising on the slow moving disturbance in the Atlantic.

This is a large area of Low pressure so any development could form anywhere over this area.

The disturbance is still maintaining a westerly track and, of course, it is directly to the east of the Windward Islands.

So, no development or slow development could bring some stormy conditions to a wide area but development in the next 24 hours would narrow down the areas at risk. It is too early to have any idea of the future track and development of this disturbance ... so it must be watched.

Meanwhile, the global media is watching Cyclone Phailin in the Bay of Bengal which, so far, is the most intense Storm this year and seems set to be a disaster for the east coast of India.

Regards