LIQUID SUNSHINE

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 12TH OCTOBER 2013 ... 1000 BST

This week is going to be difficult because the weather very much depends on what happens with a Tropical Disturbance directly east of Tobago.

I have been posting updates about this system on the '2013 Hurricane' forum. This is where you will see the latest news as this week progresses.

If the Disturbance develops quickly Tobago has a very low risk of being directly affected as a Storm is likely to spin to the north of Tobago. However, slow development or no development would bring wet and stormy weather to a wider area and consequently, the risks for Tobago will increase, but the risk would just be for rain, squalls and possible thunderstorms.

Otherwise it is pretty fine and we will need to wait until tomorrow to have a better idea of the week ahead.

Whilst writing I see reports of a strong earthquake (6.4) to the north east of Trinidad which has been felt as far away as Guyana ... Many Tobagonians have said to me that they associate bad weather with earthquakes ... I don't know why

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

UPDATE

The Tropical disturbance is weakening but the Wave is bringing considerable levels of moisture behind it.

There is also another Wave just behind this.

The risk of rainfall is therefore very high for this week for Tobago and most of the Windwards. I would expect rainfall to start by tonight.

I got it wrong about the earthquake ... it was north west of Trinidad!

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ...19TH OCTOBER 2013 ... 0945bst

As we reach the last month of the wet season there has been no major Hurricane ... not even close which is quite astonishing.

But it will seem like a wet season this week as a procession of Tropical Waves march across the Atlantic. The first Wave is starting to affect Tobago now and this is dragging a trail of heavy moisture behind it and the second Wave will arrive mid-week and this will only increase the risks of heavy rainfall further.

A wet week in store.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 26TH OCTOBER 2013 ... 1230 BST

As with last weeks weather update the emphasis is on 'wet' for most of the Caribbean this week.

Another strong Tropical Wave is likely to bring widespread rainfall by Tuesday.

Meanwhile, my attention is on a plume of very warm air that has moved off the north eastern Caribbean and is now merging with cold air in the mid-Atlantic. This concoction is brewing up a very violent situation that will develop into a storm for northern Europe and likely the UK as well ... if this reaches it's full potential I reckon that flights and other transport could be severely affected on Monday.

Tobago will continue to have high risks of rainfall this week, particularly from Tuesday ... but all eyes will be on Northern Europe for the early part of this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 1ST NOVEMBER 2013 ... 2000 GMT

As predicted, it has been a wet week for Tobago and most of the rest of the Caribbean.

This will ease off over Saturday and I am expecting an improvement from Sunday into next week. But watch out for showers.

In Europe I think I got it right last weekend as the Storm (Jude) caused more damage over Holland and Germany as it intensified ... the UK had 4 fatalities but there were many more in Northern Europe.

Here's to a less wet week in Tobago this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 9TH NOVEMBER 2013 ... 1115 GMT

Super Cyclone Haiyan puts things into perspective. The Phillipines have endured over 20 storms this season and now this.

The Pacific and Indian Oceans have had a very active season whereas the Caribbean has had one very brief encounter with a major Hurricane ... only Mexico has seen a sizeable storm and most of that was on it's Pacific side.

One wonders how the pent up energy and warmth in the Caribbean Sea will let itself off ... could we be in for a wet dry season? Or could 2014 be a very active season? 2013 has been very unusual.

Anyway, this week a Tropical Wave with plenty of rain is about 24/36 hours away so it will be a rainy start to this week and then the weather will be back to normal from Tuesday onwards.

There are no threats as we near the end of the wet season although any disturbance in the West Caribbean could develop as conditions are more suitable there for Storms.

That won't be Tobago's problem.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 16TH NOVEMBER 2013 ... 0930 GMT

We are into the final stages of the wet season and there is little significant 'weather' going on apart from a weak Tropical Wave just to the east of Tobago.

This will increase the risk of rain this weekend and thereafter the week should be relatively normal.

The air is very moist so I would expect quite a few showers, particularly overnight ... these will be home grown showers that develop as the heavy, moist air is lifted over the hills of the rainforest.

As we move into the dry season I am wondering if there could be more rainfall than normal as there has been little in the way of cooling due to the absence of storms that churn the seas pulling cooler waters to the surface.

I will be interested to see how the sea feels when I get to Tobago in December ... it was very warm last June/July.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ...23RD NOVEMBER 2013 ... 1630 GMT

A line of showers is affecting Tobago as I write. To the east is a trough bringing high levels of moisture.

The next few days therefore have a high risk of rain and by midweek the weather should return to normal.

This is the last week of the 'official' Hurricane Season. There has not been any major Hurricane in the Caribbean which is quite rare while the Pacific Ocean has had a very active season.

Because of this, I am expecting a wetter than average dry season for the Caribbean.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 30TH NOVEMBER 2013 ... 1730 GMT

As predicted last week, Tobago has had plenty of rain over the last week and it stayed a day longer than I expected.

The weather is back to normal now and it looks like it should stay that way this week.

There is a very small risk of rainfall arriving from the south at times but otherwise expect sunshine, moonshine and showers.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 7TH DECEMBER 2013 ... 1100 GMT

The rain that has affected Tobago over the last week has been brought by a weather influence 1,000's of miles away. A deep depression spinning just west of the Canary Islands has been sucking air from the equator. The air over the South American rainforests is, of course, full of moisture and this has dropped rain as it travels north east and feeds the Storm in the North Atlantic.

The NHC is issuing advisories on the depression but the chances of development are very low ... there is a minor threat this is could move north into Europe but it is moving slowly and the cold seas are likely to reduce the power of the depression.

This week the depression's influence is going to weaken slowly so this risk of rain from the south will reduce and I expect the Atlantic High to re-establish itself, probably by mid week, and then this should cut off the flow of moist air and bring easterly trades back to the south east Caribbean.

That means sunshine and trade showers.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 13TH DECEMBER 2013 ... 1930 GMT

This is an early update due to the fact that I will be spending the weekend packing all my contraband in readiness for my next visit to Tobago on 23rd December.

The rains of last week did start to recede and Tobago had a brief respite ... but the rains are back and for a different reason.

High pressure is strengthening in the Atlantic and bringing the seasonal trade winds across the Caribbean, however there is a bit of a battle going on to the extreme south of the Caribbean as the warm moist air off the South American mainland rises over the fresher and drier air carried by the trade winds.

The effect of pushing the moist air upwards causes rain and can even set off a few thunderstorms here and there.

This is actually going on just to the south of Trinidad and is very easy to see on satellite loops as plumes of moisture sheer northeastwards and affect Trinidad mostly, but Tobago too.

I am expecting the trades to win the battle but I don't know when ... I think it was January 2005 when it rained over Tobago for almost a month and that was for the very same reason ... Tobago's proximity to the South American mainland does sometimes have it's disadvantages.

Lets hope the trades win ... we need a strong Atlantic High but the jet stream across the North Atlantic is currently disrupting it's development.

Hopefully I can give a more positive update next weekend.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 20TH DECEMBER 2013 ... 1645 GMT

At last the weather seems to have calmed down.

The trade winds are quite strong and should be kicking up the seas ... the week ahead looks good but there is a small risk of moisture laden air moving in by Wednesday that could pep up the showers somewhat.

For the next 3 weeks the weather updates will be from Castara, subject to internet access ... this is my last before I arrive there on Monday.

For those travelling from the UK on Monday, there is a risk of travel disruption with very high winds lasting through until Tuesday. It won't be funny taking off, especially if there are cross winds so there is a chance that some flights could be delayed.

Keeping my fingers, arms and legs crossed.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER FROM CASTARA ... 28TH DECEMBER 2013 ... 1030 TOBAGO TIME

What a strange week.

On arrival I learned that our plane was the last one to leave Gatwick without a delay (or worse, a postponement of 48 hours) ... it was a very scarey take-off ... so I feel lucky.

I had predicted a small risk of rain in midweek and it did ... but not in Castara, maybe in a few other areas of Tobago, but it certainly belted it down in other parts of the eastern Caribbean causing widespread damage and a death toll of 13 reported so far.

During this event, Castara was treated to spectacular lightening displays and I sense that a supercell had formed bringing the bad weather to a wide area not far to the north of Tobago.

What concerned me was the satellite views. If they were correct then it should have rained continuously over tobago for about 36 hours ... but not one drop fell in Castara over this period. I think the radar overlays need looking at ... they seem to be off target by about 20 - 40 miles to the west ... that is an indication of how close Tobago was to these damaging rain events.

Today it is nice and sunny ... the upper airflows are still coming from the south but they are carrying less moisture. The trade winds (the good guys) are cutting under the upper airflows and hopefully this process of returning to normal will be complete before any more moisture develops over the rainforests of South America.

It is still 50/50 so we should enjoy the sunshine when we can.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER FROM CASTARA ... 4TH JANUARY 2014 ... 1840 TOBAGO TIME

The weather seems to have settled and we are having typical dry season weather with the occasional rogue shower sending people fleeing from their sunbeds on the beach and plenty more showers overnight.

There is alot of Saharan Dust flying across the Atlantic and this should keep long rain periods away.

All good, as Brian (AKA Alibaba) said to me today ... I fixed the weather good

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER FROM CASTARA ... 12TH JANUARY 2013 ... 1015 TOBAGO TIME

The settled theme continues.

Last week was mostly sunny with showers both night and day. On yesterday's boat trip there was a rather painful hail showers but it only lasted a few minutes.

The forthcoming week of weather looks like being the same ... the seas have been pretty high and this is also likely to stay the same.

The risks of cloudiness and more general rain are always there if pressure reduces to the south.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 18TH JANUARY 2014 ... 1900 GMT

The classic Dry Season situation applies with the Atlantic High controlling the weather although it is positioned a little to the north and this can allow Lower pressure to build in the south and east Caribbean ... this brings a small risk of persistent rain or cloudiness.

The trades are strong and so the sea conditions are relatively high so I would expect 2.5 to 3 meter swells off exposed areas which could be a little jumpy for boat trips.

Otherwise ... sunshine and showers both night and day.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 25TH JANUARY 2014 ... 1415 GMT

The weather is looking really good. Last week was good with mostly sunshine and few showers and this looks like continuing unless low pressure builds from the south -there is always a small risk of that.

The trades are quite strong and it looks like the sea swells will increase in the early part of this week.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 1ST FEBRUARY 2014 ... 1800 GMT

The weather has been as good as expected over the last week although cloud has been increasing from the east with an area of high moisture likely to bring some cloudiness and an increase in the risk of rain.

So the next few days could be a little wet here and there. Some will be luckier than others and it could be a matter of assessing the situation each morning and deciding to be where the sun is at Crown Point and then realising that maybe you should go back to Charlottesville or Castara!

Otherwise the trades are as strong as they should be with average sea swells around the 1.5 to 2 metre mark.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 8TH FEBRUARY 2014 ... 1515 GMT

Following on from last week the risks of cloudiness and rain are quite high for this week. There will be good days but alot of moisture is about the south east Caribbean.

The trades are also quite strong and the sea conditions are likely to be quite rough ... up to 3 metres in exposed areas.

Regards

[Paul Tallet]

WEATHER ... 15TH FEBRUARY 2014 ... 1430 GMT

This week is looking good with only a very small risk that the trades will allow any moisture to come up from the south.

The only disadvantage to this is that the trades keep the sea lively so expect some heavy seas for most of this week.

There is also significant Saharan dust crossing the Atlantic and this should keep anything more than showers away.

Northern Europe is still experiencing disruption from the extreme weather conditions in the north Atlantic and the same applies to North America so I think the only worries for this week are flight delays.

Regards