2014 Hurricane Season

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Paul Tallet
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2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:13 pm

ARTHUR

The first Storm of the Season, Arthur, is spinning around off the east coast of Florida.

Arthur is slow moving but predicted to become a Hurricane, some damage can be expected in eastern Florida but Arthur should move away to the north east and weaken after a few days.

The Tropical Wave production line is working at full steam off the African Coast but there is currently little opportunity for development of any of these Waves that have very dry (Saharan) air ahead of them.

So, ok for most. Be prepared though, it has been quiet in recent years and the NHC is not expecting much more than an average season ... all the more reason to be ready at all times wherever you are in the southern US, Central America and Caribbean.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Jul 22, 2014 11:03 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2

No real cause for alarm as I expect this very small development will revert back to an open Wave in the next 24 hours.

The centre of the depression, if it still exists, should go north of Barbados but if it opens up then the rainfall and potential tropical storm conditions could be experienced over a wider area.

There are already scattered showers and thunderstorms affecting the south east Caribbean and this could go on sporadically over the next 2 days.

Another depression follows and could bring some more rainfall (much needed for Tobago?) for the weekend.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Jul 28, 2014 10:24 pm

BERTHA?

We have the first Atlantic threat moving towards the Caribbean.

Currently at 10 degrees north of the Equator. Development is looking likely but things get complicated as it bears down on the Caribbean.

Currently the system is competing with the ITCZ for it's energy, coupled with the fact that the mid-Atlantic sea is a little cooler ahead before it smells the warm and inviting waters of the Caribbean Ocean.

This is one of those prospects that can explode into a major Storm in the Caribbean or ... not.

Much depends on what happens over the next 48 hours ... slow development keeps this system to a westerly direction ... unlikely to hit Tobago and probably go north of Barbados. But High pressure is likely to keep it to a western track as opposed to swinging north, so it needs watching as there is a risk that it will impact the Caribbean 'somewhere' ... too early to tell.

Update tomorrow.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Jul 29, 2014 3:40 pm

The prospects of 'Bertha' developing into a Tropical Depression have increased but the prospects of a named Tropical Storm have decreased due to inhibiting Saharan Dust to the north of the system coupled with adverse wind shear ... but, who knows what will happen if the system moves over warmer waters?

The increased risk of Storm development moves the future track of this system further north so the risks of impact in the southern Caribbean, Trinidad & Tobago, Grenada and the Dutch Antilles are reducing and increasing for the Windward Islands north of Barbados.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Jul 30, 2014 4:21 pm

Update on 'Bertha' ... currently tagged as 93L by the NHC.

Dry air from the Saharan Dust layer has been interfering with the development of this system but it is still likely to develop as it makes progress over increasingly warm seawater and more moist conditions in the atmosphere..

The Lesser Antilles, including Tobago, should keep an eye on this because the longer this system takes to develop then the more of a westerly route it will take. The quicker the development then the more north it will swing.

Currently at 9 degrees north of the equator and moving west at an average 15 mph it will take 3 days to reach the Windwards at the current rate ... so that is Saturday.

I still don't think it will be more than a Tropical Storm by the time it reaches a range of possibilities but I could be wrong ... these things are very unpredictable.

So ... development within 24 hours will likely take this system north of Barbados.

Development after 24 hours will mean the system is struggling and it may make an indirect impact on Tobago and a much wider area as an open system or strong Tropical Wave with sea swells and probably alot of rain here and there.

The risk of a Tropical Storm or Hurricane affecting Tobago is very low at this stage but please note that most strong Tropical Waves can bring localised Tropical Storm conditions in random areas along the squall line.

Most of us (apart from the ones that were asleep!) will remember what happened 10 years ago with Hurricane Ivan so a little preparation would be advisable in case this system springs any surprises.

Here's to a good weekend ... I will update tomorrow.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Jul 31, 2014 12:10 am

The NHC warnings have been downgraded for the 93L system to develop into a Tropical Depression or Storm.

This increases the risks of heavy rainfall and possible squally conditions for Tobago this weekend.

Enjoy ... if you see thunderstorms even remotely as good as Christmas Day 2013 you could be in for a treat ...plus, I think a bit of rain is needed for many of the Windward Islands.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Jul 31, 2014 8:50 pm

Potential 'Bertha' is getting close and speeding up ... right now, the system is about 500 miles away.

It also looks like the system is starting to turn from a straight westerly direction a little to the north although this could just be a little bump as it begins to start spinning, having had some real problems with dry air.

If, as predicted, 'Tropical Storm Bertha' is born it will likely steer north above Barbados but there are many areas of thunderstorm activity around the system and ahead of the system.

We should remember that if the centre of the system could be north of Barbados that it does not necessarily mean other islands 100 miles away won't be affected.

An area of thunderstorms look like moving over Tobago tonight and tomorrow and Bertha will be coming in from behind and hopefully swinging north.

Tropical Storm conditions can be experienced anywhere although currently the strongest winds appear to be in the northern part of the system.

So a little caution would be advised on outdoor activities through Friday and Saturday.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Fri Aug 01, 2014 5:31 pm

Tropical Storm Bertha's centre is tracking just to the north of Barbados.

The rainfall is widespread and it looks like Tobago has been one of the needy recipients of thunderstorms and some heavy rain.

This could go on all tonight and tomorrow ... much needed rain ... should look nice and lush by next week.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:39 pm

Bertha reaches Hurricane strength.

But not for long and is no trouble to any land as she curves out into the Atlantic.

I wonder if she will visit Europe.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Aug 05, 2014 7:58 pm

Oh here we go ...

The Weather Models are predicting that ex-Hurricane Bertha will pay a visit to the UK on Saturday or Sunday.

Meanwhile, back in Tobago ... more rain as the next Tropical Wave moves in.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Aug 07, 2014 5:46 pm

No signs of any trouble in the Tropical Atlantic, problems in the Pacific for Hawaii with 2 Hurricanes threatening the Islands and Super Typhoon Genevieve ... quite busy there.

Tobago is getting some rain from a Tropical Wave.

But guess who is paying a visit to the UK?

... the kind Hurricane Bertha ... now extra-Tropical but packing probably more of a punch than she did in the Caribbean.

Southern England and Wales are most at risk if she travels across northern France but some weather models are in favour of a more northerly track which could bring widespread disruption to most of England on Sunday morning.

The danger is the wind which could bring down alot of trees in full leaf and then the rain, after a deluge on Friday, Bertha could cause flooding on Sunday.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Aug 10, 2014 6:21 pm

94L

A new 'blob moving off the African coast has been labelled 94L by the NHC.

Early estimates of this being something somewhere indicate the Caribbean in 5 days although this, again, depends how soon it develops.

Initial chances of development are low but most weather models predict development after 3 days.

Early days, but worth watching.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Mon Aug 11, 2014 6:46 pm

94L Update

Tobago ...this system needs watching ... there is currently little sign of development but the conditions for development could improve dramatically towards Thursday and Friday when the system (by it current westerly speed) approaches the Caribbean.

For as long as this system struggles, it won't spin and if it won't spin, it is not likely to go north.

At this stage the worst forecast scenario is that the system develops into a Depression or Tropical Storm (Cristabel) on Thursday and this puts the south east Caribbean, including Tobago, at risk ... even indirect risk.

The medium scenario is similar to Bertha who spun north of Barbados after she developed into a Tropical Storm so this would require development by Wednesday. Bertha fought hard against wind shear and dry air to the north and this stopped her developing into a Hurricane until she was east of Florida.

The ideal scenario would be that the system dissipates and opens up into a strong Tropical Wave and shares it's energy across a wider area.

This potential 'Crystabel' was a very strong Wave when it left the African Coast and quickly formed a depression a depression along the line of the Wave and it has more energy than Bertha.

Please keep this weather in mind for any planned activities this weekend.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Aug 12, 2014 5:22 pm

94L is now off the radar after being snuffed out by dry air.

It still presents a few problems as it is part of a strong Tropical Wave that will pep up as it moves over warmer waters.

So a high risk of rain and squalls by Friday for Tobago.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:11 am

The remnants of 94L have brought some relatively severe conditions to Trinidad and Tobago over the last 24 hours.

3 more Waves are on the way, the first is a strong Wave but any rain is likely to be limited due to very dry air ... the 2nd Wave is 95L and this could develop in the short term (i.e.; 48 hours) but again this is likely to be snuffed out by dry air and it poses no threats to the Caribbean as I expect it to go north.

The 3rd Wave is still over Africa.

There is very dense Saharan Dust over the Atlantic so whatever happens and no matter how threatening it looks is not likely to last long in the current conditions.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Elizabeth.W » Sat Aug 16, 2014 1:31 pm

Hi Paul,
Thank you for this daily update, I am following your thread with great interest as I will be going late Sept. To be honest rain doesn't bother me, but violent storms would be a shame.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Sun Aug 17, 2014 10:57 am

Your welcome Elizabeth.

It is rare for Tobago to be directly affected by Hurricanes or Tropical Storms ... only a few close shaves in the last 10 years.

But sometimes an active Tropical Wave can bring localised problems ... 10 years ago, after Hurricane Ivan passed narrowly to the north of Tobago and devastated Grenada, Tobago had a damaging rain event which dropped 16 inches of rain in about 36 hours and this led to some fatalities ... that was due to a Tropical Depression.

During the alleged Dry Season on Christmas Day, 2013 ... a huge Storm brought spectacular lightening displays and little rain to Tobago while the Storm caused fatalities in the Grenadines many miles away

So all sorts of conditions can occur all year round and everyone needs to be mindful.

Anyway 95L is showing little sign of development but it is still a depression tagged onto a Tropical Wave. It's touch and go for the weather over the next week.

But it has been a very quiet Wet Season so far.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Tue Aug 19, 2014 9:44 pm

96L

I am sure this relates to the original 95L but anyway, Tobago needs to be ready for some heavy rainfall and squally conditions from Thursday through to Friday and possibly Saturday.

96L is a depression that is pepping up as it nears the welcoming environment of the south Caribbean Sea. It looks most likely that this system will develop after it passes but, please, remember that these systems often get nasty before they are designated as a named Storm.

So expect some potential fireworks from Thursday afternoon onwards.

Another depression is behind 96L but this seems less likely to develop although it is still embedded within a strong Tropical Wave.

This could extend the rainfall risks into this weekend and into the early part of next week.

I will post updates.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Wed Aug 20, 2014 6:19 pm

96L DISTURBANCE

Right now conditions in Tobago are starting to deteriorate as showers build ahead of 96L.

The likely centre of 96L is still a few hundred miles to the east and it is likely to go to the north of Tobago, probably north of Barbados but the weather around the south of the system is where the heaviest thunderstorms are developing and this is the area where any Islands will be hardest hit.

As 96L passes over the Windward Islands it is likely to strengthen and most of the weather models are predicting Tropical Storm formation south of Puerto Rico.

Do not rely on this in Tobago ... this is a developing Storm that is likely to bring dangerous weather conditions over a wide area before it wraps itself up into a dense circulation ... it is at these early stages when we can get caught out.

My advice is to take precautions and avoid any sea and rainforest activities from now and until Saturday at the earliest.

Potential hazards are persistent torrential rain that can cause landslides, lightening and squally conditions.

I will update tomorrow if anything changes.

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Re: 2014 Hurricane Season

Post by Paul Tallet » Thu Aug 21, 2014 5:20 pm

96L DISTURBANCE UPDATE

I think this one will be called 'Cristobel' when she finally gets her act together.

There is certainly a circulation but it is over quite a large area and it is difficult for Tropical Storms to form in this way ... they usually start quite small.

The centre appears to be already north east of Barbados but there is alot of rainfall around the south of this system.

Tobago has already had some rain and I sense that Tobago will get quite a bit more rain and possible thunderstorms from now, overnight and tomorrow.

Just remember that the weather can get quite severe locally in these situations, so don't risk that urgent trip to Barbados in your boats!!

Also, tranquil fishing and snorkelling trips are also not recommended until after Saturday.

Regards

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